FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[rros]

Esteemed reporters from  Fox news (Gasparino) and  Breitbart (Carney)  are spreading poison about these entities, so that must be this admin’s agenda too. Why not? Free money is flowing in and court cases are going their way. Sweeney is now bought too as the chief judge by the very people against whom plaintiff’s case is. In my opinion, we will lose Sweeney case too.

 

The very least this admin they could have done is release all 10000 documents and presidential privilege documents. Instead they are fighting tooth and nail to justify the NWS to keep taking all the profits.

 

I would sell now and buy preferred at $1-$2 in 2028 and buy commons at $0.19-$0.25 in 2028. You will hear lots of chatter in next few months to get your votes, that is all. Sad. Very sad that loot goes on in plain sight, and to continue.

 

 

 

Why does everyone hate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? They are most important institutions providing housing and are responsible for economic recovery to debacle caused by large banks.

 

 

Gasparino is really smart.

 

Probably the smartest guy ever.

Emily, you are losing focus.

 

While it is entirely possible we may not win any case, there are few in which we made progress. That said, the focus should be where this is going. The important questions being 'will the conservatorships continue?', 'what will Watt do once the public comment period is over in November?', 'is Moelis still in play?' and more importantly 'are shareholders going to be treated fairly in any outcome?'.

 

I think it is now universally accepted that the companies cannot operate on a 3 billion capital mark or under the current scheme. Sooner or later Treasury will provide specific guidance. They aren't idiots. And both the Federal Reserve and Mnuchin understand markets (specially real estate) are on thin ice, based on Jerome Powell's comments that perhaps the fed should go light on interest rates in the coming months.

[muscleman]

Predictions are that current admin may lose control of the house. GSE resolution scenario looks more and more bleak. Why does admin reform has to wait till next year?

 

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Featured

 

admin reform does not require congress approval. I strongly recommend that you pick up the investing books and learn, instead of wasting time whining here. That may be a better use of your time. If you need recommendations, how about starting with “market wizards” and “new market wizards”? You need to understand that this trade is only one of the next 10000 trades in your life, and it is really insignificant.

[Luke 532]

I strongly recommend that you pick up the investing books and learn, instead of wasting time whining here.

 

You have been brainwashed with all the books written by the experts

 

I doubt recommending to her to read will help.  I got this response after suggesting she read The Intelligent Investor and The Little Book of Behavioral Investing.  Only so much one can do to help somebody else.

 

Note: It looks like she deleted the posts where she mentioned the brainwashing stuff.  But I quoted her in a still-existing post of mine, so here it is.

[investorG]

Hello, everyone.  we're 2 months away from midterms now.  since mnuchin and phillips explicitly punted the issue in feb/march, that's likely when the door for any potential action theoretically re-opens. 

 

IMO Mnuchin needs to see the lay of the land for the next 2 years before deciding on his strategy; some legislative options will open / close depending on what happens.  My hope is that the warrants are the backup plan to fund the wall if the Republicans lose in November.   

 

In addition, if FNMA hasn't hit the 10pct moment until the Sep-30 payment, it was hard to do something with the sr preferred until that milestone was/is reached. 

 

Finally, the more court cases we lose, the lower the expectations from jr preferred shareholders for value, making a fair compromise easier to accomplish.

[Eye4Valu]

My guess is that Emily is probably not even a girl, and is one of several trolls who offer little value on this thread/site. An agent provocateur if you will.

[blackcoffee]

Hello, everyone.  we're 2 months away from midterms now.  since mnuchin and phillips explicitly punted the issue in feb/march, that's likely when the door for any potential action theoretically re-opens. 

 

IMO Mnuchin needs to see the lay of the land for the next 2 years before deciding on his strategy; some legislative options will open / close depending on what happens.  My hope is that the warrants are the backup plan to fund the wall if the Republicans lose in November.   

 

In addition, if FNMA hasn't hit the 10pct moment until the Sep-30 payment, it was hard to do something with the sr preferred until that milestone was/is reached. 

 

Finally, the more court cases we lose, the lower the expectations from jr preferred shareholders for value, making a fair compromise easier to accomplish.

 

 

wait you actually hope that they loot these companies more AND use the proceeds to fund the dumbest immigration idea ever? Hilarious.

 

Also the 10% moment is also some BS made up thing that shouldn't even exist. (yes I know what it is, I still don't care).

 

Just all sorts insanity.

[blackcoffee]

My guess is that Emily is probably not even a girl, and is one of several trolls who offer little value on this thread/site. An agent provocateur if you will.

 

I'm not actually coffee.

[allnatural]

Last few comments have been entertaining! Happy 10 year anniversary folks! I believe who is choosen to replace Watt in the near term will be a large indicator for the path forward. It will be Mnuchins second actual ACTION on the GSEs other than increasing the buffer to $3b.

[blackcoffee]

My guess is that Emily is probably not even a girl, and is one of several trolls who offer little value on this thread/site. An agent provocateur if you will.

 

What crimes do you think she is trying to get you to commit - well her or anyone else? Or just get outted as a pro shareholder? oooo

 

I think it's funny that people still think they're at all anon online anywhere. Quick status check, you're not. So stop pretending like you are.

[Luke 532]

Treasury, FHFA Chiefs Preparing for Freddie CEO’s Exit

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-05/treasury-fhfa-chiefs-are-said-preparing-for-freddie-ceo-s-exit

[allnatural]

Fannie Mae's CEO, Freddie Mac's CEO, and FHFA's Director all out by year-end. Mnuchin must choose 3 successors within the next 4 months. Will be interesting to see who he picks. Should be telling.

 

Treasury, FHFA Chiefs Preparing for Freddie CEO’s Exit

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-05/treasury-fhfa-chiefs-are-said-preparing-for-freddie-ceo-s-exit

[Luke 532]

Anybody watching the Kavanaugh hearing?  Did he and Senator Mike Lee just agree that it is the definition of tyranny for Congress to create an independent body that subverts Constitutional Law with unchecked powers? 

[Midas79]

Anybody watching the Kavanaugh hearing?  Did he and Senator Mike Lee just agree that it is the definition of tyranny for Congress to create an independent body that subverts Constitutional Law with unchecked powers?

 

It would be just another strange chapter, though bad for us shareholders (due to a further dragging out of the saga), if the FnF saga got swept up into a larger wave of anti-independent agency sentiment.

[muscleman]

Should I just get the latest version "new market wizards" ? or are they two different books? I don't see the first one in the library.

 

Predictions are that current admin may lose control of the house. GSE resolution scenario looks more and more bleak. Why does admin reform has to wait till next year?

 

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Featured

 

Both are great books and they are interviews with super traders. It was hard to communicate with you especially after the attempt to explain common vs preferred and you didn't get it and didn't want to read a bankruptcy book to understand the capital structures. I strongly recommend that you read books, learn, and stop posting.

 

 

 

admin reform does not require congress approval. I strongly recommend that you pick up the investing books and learn, instead of wasting time whining here. That may be a better use of your time. If you need recommendations, how about starting with “market wizards” and “new market wizards”? You need to understand that this trade is only one of the next 10000 trades in your life, and it is really insignificant.

[allnatural]

"If Congress fails to act by early next year, the new director can still institute these reforms administratively—and I call on them to do so."

 

Look's like the timeline is: Congress gets one more crack in Q1, then its admins turn from mid-2019 forward. (hopefully)

 

Do you wonder who wrote this for Jeb and put his name on it? Shameful.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-make-way-for-ginnie-mae-1536189030

 

[rros]

"If Congress fails to act by early next year, the new director can still institute these reforms administratively—and I call on them to do so."

 

Look's like the timeline is: Congress gets one more crack in Q1, then its admins turn from mid-2019 forward. (hopefully)

 

Do you wonder who wrote this for Jeb and put his name on it? Shameful.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-make-way-for-ginnie-mae-1536189030

 

Only if admin implements Hensarling's :)

"the new director can still institute these reforms administratively—and I call on them to do so."

 

These proposals all look outstanding on paper. They promise innovation, competition, monumental taxpayers' protection and prosperity for everyone. Then, a bill comes along filled with the words "or" and "may".

[Luke 532]

Top housing groups push Trump administration, Congress to enact permanent GSE reform

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/46746-top-housing-groups-push-trump-administration-congress-to-enact-permanent-gse-reform?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=housingwire#.W5CErgSX-dA.twitter

 

[doughishere]

10 years to the date.  I cant believe no one here noticed.

[investorG]

after listening to much of the hearing from yesterday, and in isolation, is it better to have the team of waters / cleaver / Maloney in charge of the fin services committee in 2019 vs. sean duffy and republican crew?

[Guest cherzeca]

after listening to much of the hearing from yesterday, and in isolation, is it better to have the team of waters / cleaver / Maloney in charge of the fin services committee in 2019 vs. sean duffy and republican crew?

 

didn't listen to hearing but dems would be less solicitous of tbtf banks than repubs in connection ion with any GSE reform

[DocSnowball]

after listening to much of the hearing from yesterday, and in isolation, is it better to have the team of waters / cleaver / Maloney in charge of the fin services committee in 2019 vs. sean duffy and republican crew?

 

didn't listen to hearing but dems would be less solicitous of tbtf banks than repubs in connection ion with any GSE reform

 

https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-115-ba00-wstate-edemarco-20180906.pdf

 

This is Ed DeMarco's testimony text, read from a non expert's viewpoint: There is comparison of the various legislative proposals at the end, none of which calls for recap and release and all of which run Fannie and Freddie through receiverships with different endings to the story. I'm not clear what happens to shareholders in any receivership, they don't talk about it at all - I'm certainly not touching the commons, but even the preferred I hold are dependent on the kindness of strangers in all of these scenarios. Sticking to the facts, is this investment now not dependent on Sweeney/the angle that Paulson et al may know something and are holding on for that.

[Luke 532]

Sticking to the facts, is this investment now not dependent on Sweeney/the angle that Paulson et al may know something and are holding on for that.

 

I don't think that's what it boils down to in this situation.  My thesis completely discounts any possible legal win or positive action by Congress.  The thesis is based on what Mnuchin and the White House have said they want to do (and what can realistically happen: r'ship = $5T national debt increase, doesn't seem like an election winning platform) and how that corresponds pretty darn closely with a favorable plan for preferred shareholders (the Moelis plan).  If Mnuchin fails to act then the Supreme Court comes in to play.  There's a lot more to it than this, but that is my one paragraph answer.

[rros]

Sticking to the facts, is this investment now not dependent on Sweeney/the angle that Paulson et al may know something and are holding on for that.

 

I don't think that's what it boils down to in this situation.  My thesis completely discounts any possible legal win or positive action by Congress.  The thesis is based on what Mnuchin and the White House have said they want to do (and what can realistically happen: r'ship = $5T national debt increase, doesn't seem like an election winning platform) and how that corresponds pretty darn closely with a favorable plan for preferred shareholders (the Moelis plan).  If Mnuchin fails to act then the Supreme Court comes in to play.  There's a lot more to it than this, but that is my one paragraph answer.

DocSnowball may have a point re kindness of strangers. Back in the Jim Millstein days his plan also called for a short, technical receivership. In the process, the Jrs. were valued at par. JM owned them only to divest after his plan went nowhere. This time, there aren't too many friendly voices and the general silence regarding our future could be construed as no bones. Or a tiny one.

[allnatural]

You guys still believe there is ANY chance that anything passes legislatively, especially one that involves unwinding the current system as we know it?

 

Thesis is pretty simple: TINA (they can't replace the GSEs as is, or its too risky a proposition to do so), + Warrants ($100b+ for government to reap). with MoS (if there is such a thing here), being Sweeney/ongoing litigation.

[Luke 532]

Mildly interesting from court today. Don't know if this reporting is accurate.

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sqlab7