FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[hardincap]

"You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar”. #fanniegate-rs should take note

[rros]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

So this was 47 days ago. Where is my "short term"? Still waiting for the "significant positive developments at both companies".

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

In all honesty, with the next debt ceiling crisis coming up in September, good luck to the Rs! Not to mention they probably still want to pursue possible tax reform. I'm going to assume they've given up on wiping out the health insurance market.

[rros]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

So this was 47 days ago. Where is my "short term"? Still waiting for the "significant positive developments at both companies".

Update to my comment above. Looks like this was released today ("Pershing Square presented its ADP investment thesis on a webcast on

August 17, 2017.). So the FF statement must be valid or they would have knocked it down had their change their position.

[HalfMeasure]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

 

Didn't Corker/Ackman set up a meeting with each other at some point and start a dialogue?

[merkhet]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

 

Didn't Corker/Ackman set up a meeting with each other at some point and start a dialogue?

 

Yes, IIRC, it was after the Valeant hearing.

[SnarkyPuppy]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

So this was 47 days ago. Where is my "short term"? Still waiting for the "significant positive developments at both companies".

Update to my comment above. Looks like this was released today ("Pershing Square presented its ADP investment thesis on a webcast on

August 17, 2017.). So the FF statement must be valid or they would have knocked it down had their change their position.

 

Perhaps they are just being coy to try to persuade the awful #fanniegate crowd to tone down rhetoric headed into the next few critical months.  What is the advantage of publicly hinting at something favorable about to occur, especially if it's likely to happen in the "short term" as described.  If he was privy to some positive news, most sensical thing to do (imho) is keep your lips sealed and let it play out.  I think this is just a small push to reduce the idiots in this trade to stop antagonizing corker

[rros]

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2017/08/17151225/PSH-Interim-Financial-Statements-06.30.17.pdf

 

"We are fortunate that two of the most financially sophisticated Senators in Washington, Senators Corker and Warner, have taken the lead on housing finance reform and have suggested that they will put forth new legislation shortly to address this last remaining restructuring of the financial crisis. We believe that this initiative combined with support from the Treasury Secretary has dramatically increased the chances of a favorable resolution for the country and for investors in Fannie and Freddie, including the government, which is not reflected in their current share prices."

 

uhhh what

So this was 47 days ago. Where is my "short term"? Still waiting for the "significant positive developments at both companies".

Update to my comment above. Looks like this was released today ("Pershing Square presented its ADP investment thesis on a webcast on

August 17, 2017.). So the FF statement must be valid or they would have knocked it down had their change their position.

 

Perhaps they are just being coy to try to persuade the awful #fanniegate crowd to tone down rhetoric headed into the next few critical months.  What is the advantage of publicly hinting at something favorable about to occur, especially if it's likely to happen in the "short term" as described.  If he was privy to some positive news, most sensical thing to do (imho) is keep your lips sealed and let it play out.  I think this is just a small push to reduce the idiots in this trade to stop antagonizing corker

lol. Could be. The sure thing is when stocks rally on no news. That's the inside crowd. Here, instead, fabulous news is announced only to see stocks crater or don't move. Oh, wait. Ackman said this good news hasn't been reflected in the stocks prices yet. So it's all good!

[Luke 532]

lol. Could be. The sure thing is when stocks rally on no news. That's the inside crowd. Here, instead, fabulous news is announced only to see stocks crater or don't move. Oh, wait. Ackman said this good news hasn't been reflected in the stocks prices yet. So it's all good!

 

The ability to separate the reality of a situation against what a stock price says is the primary reason my net worth exceeded the million dollar mark in my early 30's.  Avoid using the stock price as a proxy for value, avoid using price fluctuations as a gauge of what is good/bad news.  This is a philosophy that people either live by or don't.  One can't be a successful value investor (or special situation investor if you want to call it that) by only believing this philosophy half-way.

[hardincap]

lol. Could be. The sure thing is when stocks rally on no news. That's the inside crowd. Here, instead, fabulous news is announced only to see stocks crater or don't move. Oh, wait. Ackman said this good news hasn't been reflected in the stocks prices yet. So it's all good!

 

The ability to separate the reality of a situation against what a stock price says is the primary reason my net worth exceeded the million dollar mark in my early 30's.  Avoid using the stock price as a proxy for value, avoid using price fluctuations as a gauge of what is good/bad news.  This is a philosophy that people either live by or don't.  One can't be a successful value investor (or special situation investor if you want to call it that) by only believing this philosophy half-way.

 

alot of people on this board including myself hit 7 figure net worth before 30s. i dont think its fair to preach any one strategy over another because there are many ways to invest successfully. re: ignoring price fluctuations, many value investors respect the markets to some degree. even ben graham had a policy where if the price doesnt move in X number of years he gets out, despite his conviction on intrinsic value.

[rros]

lol. Could be. The sure thing is when stocks rally on no news. That's the inside crowd. Here, instead, fabulous news is announced only to see stocks crater or don't move. Oh, wait. Ackman said this good news hasn't been reflected in the stocks prices yet. So it's all good!

 

The ability to separate the reality of a situation against what a stock price says is the primary reason my net worth exceeded the million dollar mark in my early 30's.  Avoid using the stock price as a proxy for value, avoid using price fluctuations as a gauge of what is good/bad news.  This is a philosophy that people either live by or don't.  One can't be a successful value investor (or special situation investor if you want to call it that) by only believing this philosophy half-way.

Well... congratulations on your success at a young age! I started at 30 with 5k, when I moved to the US. That was all I had in the bank, haha.

 

I am on the same side as you are.

 

And I also believe patience in investing is the magic ingredient that let prices and value meet at some point. But I see value in price action. I am open enough to think different strategies work for different personalities/characters using different approaches. While value investing may not require watching charts daily, weekly or even monthly there are other who made fortunes watching 5 minute charts. Perhaps the key is to "know thyself" and thus chose the correct approach that matches *thyself*. I could never, ever, ever do daytrading.

 

My remark regarding Ackman pointed at the lack of effect on market prices of his apparent knowledge. Either he has no knowledge or nobody believes what he is saying is possible. Or rumors/hope have become ineffective, so wait for confirmation. A confluence of factors such as Treasury, Congress and FHFA (although not mentioned by him) aligning themselves in a plan that upholds shareholders' rights will absolutely move prices. As I said in a prior post. Should the WH comes out with a statement in line with the above, lawsuits may be dropped and repricing may happen.

[hardincap]

"You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar”. #fanniegate-rs should take note

 

also i think its reasonable to assume pershing is in active communication with corker & warner (and probably others) on housing finance reform. how could they not be given their position

[TonyG]

i just don't see how corker and warner can switch just like that. unless they see the writing on the wall and know. or like cherzeca said and they are no longer short.

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

i just don't see how corker and warner can switch just like that. unless they see the writing on the wall and know. or like cherzeca said and they are no longer short.

 

since we are speculating, i think i can see a come to jesus moment, where corker/warner agree to some form of GSE rehab (and moelis provided the blueprint) together with some form of competitive alternative that the tbtf banks can set up, if they want to, with a more even playing field.  sort of makes sense looking at it impartially...

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

With Corker, he's gotta know about Mark Green as a potential R primary opponent. And Mackler seems like a credible D candidate. Also, a fellow from Portland, TN I met the 2nd time in DC said TN is basically a purple state now, a lot milder on social issues than the deep south. He can't afford to continue on the path he had chosen.

 

 

[Midas79]

i just don't see how corker and warner can switch just like that. unless they see the writing on the wall and know. or like cherzeca said and they are no longer short.

 

since we are speculating, i think i can see a come to jesus moment, where corker/warner agree to some form of GSE rehab (and moelis provided the blueprint) together with some form of competitive alternative that the tbtf banks can set up, if they want to, with a more even playing field.  sort of makes sense looking at it impartially...

 

I don't think Corker was ever specifically anti-shareholder (a la David Stevens with "Wall Street windfall" as his only specific objection to Moelis) as much as anti FnF; getting rid of them would create a vacuum that the TBTF banks would fill. If he can carve out a role in the secondary mortgage finance market for Wells Fargo he very well could be willing to let the GSEs continue to exist. I don't think he cares one way or another if current GSE shareholders see their shares appreciate.

 

He might be finally accepting that he cannot get everything he (and Wells Fargo) wants and will take what he can get.

[Guest cherzeca]

senators are big on huffing and puffing and then compromising

[rros]

i just don't see how corker and warner can switch just like that. unless they see the writing on the wall and know. or like cherzeca said and they are no longer short.

Actually, if I remember correctly, Corker stated a list of issues where there was accord in one of his last hearings. They were:

 

1. Use of current infrastructure.

2. Paid-for, explicit guarantee (some form).

3. Enough capital before the guarantee.

 

He also mentioned that some of his republican colleagues in the house will have to compromise in a clear reference to Hensarling. In addition, he admitted his original bill was too complex to move forward and that something simpler is now required. I do not think he addressed the "duopoly" and that was a matter of concern to Warner. Most likely, any new bill will not be a traditional recap/release but more of a restructuring to make it look like a new housing finance system... my guess.

 

We do know though that when it appears as if nothing is happening a lot of work is being done behind the scene. So perhaps Ackman is privy to some details that aren't yet public.

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

LOL.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-bob-corker-says-investors-should-short-fannie-and-freddie-2015-10-07

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/corker-omnibus-protects-fannie-freddie-from-wall-street-hedge-funds/article/2578667

 

 

 

 

[Midas79]

LOL.

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-bob-corker-says-investors-should-short-fannie-and-freddie-2015-10-07

 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/corker-omnibus-protects-fannie-freddie-from-wall-street-hedge-funds/article/2578667

 

Exactly the "huffing and puffing" cherzeca was referring to.

 

If there's one thing we know about Corker it's that he looks out for himself first. If Wells Fargo et al decide that a good chance at a small portion of the market is better than a small chance at a large portion, we will see stances soften quickly. He would hardly be the first politician to loudly and publicly take a hard stance on something and then make a deal behind closed doors.

 

That and anti-GSE fervor has died down with Obama and his administration gone so there isn't as much to capitalize on for political gain. He will need other means to defend his Senate seat.

[rros]

Next hurdle 9/29. US hits debt ceiling.

 

"In the near term, we believe there is a 50% chance of a brief government shutdown, as the president seeks to solidify support among his base by embracing more controversial positions, despite needing Democratic support to pass spending legislation," Goldman economists wrote today. "That said, we expect that the debt limit, which needs to be raised around the same time, will prevent a longer shutdown from occurring."

 

Given the current climate and the high chance of a temporary shutdown, anybody thinks we will see good news prior to this? Any deal requires at least 8 democrats from the senate.

[waynepolsonAtoZ]

"If there's one thing we know about Corker it's that he looks out for himself first."

 

That's my point. He wants to get reelected. It's far from a slam-dunk at this point.

[Luke 532]

[SnarkyPuppy]

Any thoughts on Icahn's departure?  IMO irrelevant for F/F and probably zero chance it had any relevance to why he left.  We still don't know if he even holds shares anymore iirc

[Guest cherzeca]

Any thoughts on Icahn's departure?  IMO irrelevant for F/F and probably zero chance it had any relevance to why he left.  We still don't know if he even holds shares anymore iirc

 

not sure he was ever there to depart from