Guest cherzeca Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 @MM fat pitch doesnt know what is going to happen, but it will happen in May. swing and miss.
Luke 532 Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 FWIW, probably not much, but Moelis and Milbank seem to know each other pretty well. Not a bad thing to have a previous working relationship between legal counsel (Milbank) and preferred-friendly plan architects (Moelis). Attached...Moelis-Milbank_1.jfifMoelis-Milbank_2.jfif
DRValue Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 FWIW, probably not much, but Moelis and Milbank seem to know each other pretty well. Not a bad thing to have a previous working relationship between legal counsel (Milbank) and preferred-friendly plan architects (Moelis). Attached... Moelis weren't selected were they?
Luke 532 Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 FWIW, probably not much, but Moelis and Milbank seem to know each other pretty well. Not a bad thing to have a previous working relationship between legal counsel (Milbank) and preferred-friendly plan architects (Moelis). Attached... Moelis weren't selected were they? They're working with UST (selected last week) on something non-GSE related (I think the airlines), and they produced the Blueprint. But this job/RFP was looking for a law firm.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 FWIW, probably not much, but Moelis and Milbank seem to know each other pretty well. Not a bad thing to have a previous working relationship between legal counsel (Milbank) and preferred-friendly plan architects (Moelis). Attached... Moelis weren't selected were they? moelis reps us, the good guys (well, actually Paulson and Blackstone, but on such shoulders we stand). Houlihan Lokey and Milbank (legal) rep FHFA. these guys all know each other. cant wait for Milbank to tell FHFA litigation counsel Arnold & Porter to STFU
Luke 532 Posted April 5, 2020 Posted April 5, 2020 cant wait for Milbank to tell FHFA litigation counsel Arnold & Porter to STFU How do you mean, exactly? In terms of potential settlement negotiations or A&P's approach to the litigation as a whole?
Guest cherzeca Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 cant wait for Milbank to tell FHFA litigation counsel Arnold & Porter to STFU How do you mean, exactly? In terms of potential settlement negotiations or A&P's approach to the litigation as a whole? at some point the center of gravity regarding legal matters at fhfa should shift from litigation (Arnold & Porter, Kaye Scholer) to settlement (first preparation, then execution) (Milbank). I am not suggesting that Milbank will be substituted as litigation counsel of record (though that would make perfect sense). I am suggesting that fhfa will need a coherent strategy going forward, in which the litigation hand works in harmony (or at least not at cross purposes) with the settlement hand. I have no idea whether anyone at fhfa is experienced enough to know how to run a deal process, but it sure doesnt involve having litigation counsel sit outside the settlement loop and do things that are counterproductive. until Milbank was hired, there was no one at fhfa telling litigation counsel what to do. now I have to believe that Milbank will make sure it is the last voice of advice heard by fhfa going forward.
Luke 532 Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 at some point the center of gravity regarding legal matters at fhfa should shift from litigation (Arold & Porter, Kaye Scholer) to settlement (first preparation, then execution) (Milbank). I am not suggesting that Milbank will be substituted as litigation counsel of record (though that would make perfect sense). I am suggesting that fhfa will need a coherent strategy going forward, in which the litigation hand works in harmony (or at least not at cross purposes) with the settlement hand. I have no idea whether anyone at fhfa is experienced enough to know how to run a deal process, but it sure doesnt involve having litigation counsel sit outside the settlement loop and do things that are counterproductive. until Milbank was hired, there was no one at fhfa telling litigation counsel what to do. now I have to believe that Milbank will make sure it is the last voice of advice heard by fhfa going forward. Thank you.
orthopa Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 cant wait for Milbank to tell FHFA litigation counsel Arnold & Porter to STFU How do you mean, exactly? In terms of potential settlement negotiations or A&P's approach to the litigation as a whole? at some point the center of gravity regarding legal matters at fhfa should shift from litigation (Arnold & Porter, Kaye Scholer) to settlement (first preparation, then execution) (Milbank). I am not suggesting that Milbank will be substituted as litigation counsel of record (though that would make perfect sense). I am suggesting that fhfa will need a coherent strategy going forward, in which the litigation hand works in harmony (or at least not at cross purposes) with the settlement hand. I have no idea whether anyone at fhfa is experienced enough to know how to run a deal process, but it sure doesnt involve having litigation counsel sit outside the settlement loop and do things that are counterproductive. until Milbank was hired, there was no one at fhfa telling litigation counsel what to do. now I have to believe that Milbank will make sure it is the last voice of advice heard by fhfa going forward. Great point. Next will be capital rule, then we should get FnF hiring their financial advisers. Relative to the progress (albeit very slow) the share price has never been so low to what seems to be reality. Biggest question mark is timing but the end result seems to be more and more clear. Granted I have become frustrated regarding the length of this investment but added recently twice. Even in light of the market down turn where else can you get 4-5 times your money in the next 12-18 months? I have given up reading the tea leaves with this investment but what is happening with the servicers is very telling. Calabria turned his back and told those concerned his job is to conserve and restore FnFs capital. Mnuchin is very quiet on the issue also. What better way to convince the last group of doubters then to hold their feet to the fire? We may have to dodge the hedge fund narrative eventually but the FnF should go away crowd should be silenced pretty good going forward.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 "Calabria turned his back and told those concerned his job is to conserve and restore FnFs capital. Mnuchin is very quiet on the issue also." capital has become king, and the GSEs have some and are busy building it, and they now have a conservator who cares about this, and the servicers dont have it. and as usual on wall st, money talks and BS (I am looking at you Chris Whalen) walks.
orthopa Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 "Calabria turned his back and told those concerned his job is to conserve and restore FnFs capital. Mnuchin is very quiet on the issue also." capital has become king, and the GSEs have some and are busy building it, and they now have a conservator who cares about this, and the servicers dont have it. and as usual on wall st, money talks and BS (I am looking at you Chris Whalen) walks. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-bailout-there-is-going-to-be-complete-chaos-mortgage-ceo.html "In an interview Wednesday on CNBC, Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said he estimated about 2 million borrowers would seek forbearance by May. He did not agree that servicers need liquidity now, only later. “If this goes beyond two or three months, and we start to get worse than that, then that’s going to be a lot of strain, and certainly we’re going to start to see some firms get into a lot of liquidity trouble,” Calabria said." “Throwing this out there without showing evidence of hardship was an outrageous move, outrageous,” said David Stevens, who headed the Federal Housing Administration during the subprime mortgage crisis and is a former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “The administration made a huge mistake bringing moral hazard in and thrust extraordinary risk into the private sector that could collapse the mortgage market.” Stevens said borrowers should have been required to show at least some proof of hardship, which they had to do during subprime mortgage bailout. Moral hazard aside, he, too, contended a liquidity facility for servicers is essential. “This is a crisis so easily correctable,” he said. “The GSEs [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] for years have always assured the servicing community that in the event of a major credit event, they’ll be there to make sure they provide the liquidity. From what we are hearing, and we can’t verify it, the FHFA director instructed the GSEs not to set up a liquidity or advance facility.” When asked for a response to the industry plea, Calabria on Monday declined to comment. Man talk about turning a deaf ear! Holy Shit. Go Calabria! Stevens wants liquidity now! LOL He didnt want them to recap and fought it for years! If it wasnt super obvious why this is happening it is now. Justice is being served. Calabria told Stevens to go play with a bag of dicks lol.
Luke 532 Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Man talk about turning a deaf ear! Holy Shit. Go Calabria! Stevens wants liquidity now! LOL He didnt want them to recap and fought it for years! If it wasnt super obvious why this is happening it is now. Justice is being served. Don't be surprised if the political opposition to recapitalize the GSE's is virtually gone as a result. Both sides of the aisle very likely see the need for a well-capitalized Fannie and Freddie. Stevens might still object, but nobody with half a brain will.
Luke 532 Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct:
Guest Covid-19_Survivor Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct: Quite the reach by GrahamFisher. Although I'll admit to not knowing if the legal definition of "attest" is different to how I understand the word, that section reads pretty clear. It's totally up to the homeowner, and "hardship" is subjective.
Guest Covid-19_Survivor Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/06/mortgage-industry-sounds-alarm-over-coronavirus-mortgage-bailout.html
Luke 532 Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct: One concern of mine has been that people would take 12 months of not paying their mortgage even if economy opens back up in 2 months. However, Rosner's piece says that the forbearance assistance is only "during the covered period." Can anybody confirm that the "covered period" officially ends when Trump declares we're no longer in a national emergency? Does "national emergency" = "covered period"? Logic would say it does, but I want to be 100% sure. Thanks. Another way to put it, is there a chance "covered period" could mean the 180 days + 180 days and NOT be tied to the status of whether we're in a national emergency or not?
orthopa Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct: One concern of mine has been that people would take 12 months of not paying their mortgage even if economy opens back up in 2 months. However, Rosner's piece says that the forbearance assistance is only "during the covered period." Can anybody confirm that the "covered period" officially ends when Trump declares we're no longer in a national emergency? Does "national emergency" = "covered period"? Logic would say it does, but I want to be 100% sure. Thanks. Another way to put it, is there a chance "covered period" could mean the 180 days + 180 days and NOT be tied to the status of whether we're in a national emergency or not? I don't have the verbiage per verbatim in front of me but the bill did say that it was while we were in a national emergency. I do remember reading that.
Luke 532 Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 I don't have the verbiage per verbatim in front of me but the bill did say that it was while we were in a national emergency. I do remember reading that. Excellent, thank you. Not sure how I missed that. That alleviates one of my concerns.
orthopa Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 I don't have the verbiage per verbatim in front of me but the bill did say that it was while we were in a national emergency. I do remember reading that. Excellent, thank you. Not sure how I missed that. That alleviates one of my concerns. I know checking twitter is a broad statement but I think maybe Holdenwalker sp? Had a screenshot of the verbage.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 6, 2020 Posted April 6, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct: One concern of mine has been that people would take 12 months of not paying their mortgage even if economy opens back up in 2 months. However, Rosner's piece says that the forbearance assistance is only "during the covered period." Can anybody confirm that the "covered period" officially ends when Trump declares we're no longer in a national emergency? Does "national emergency" = "covered period"? Logic would say it does, but I want to be 100% sure. Thanks. Another way to put it, is there a chance "covered period" could mean the 180 days + 180 days and NOT be tied to the status of whether we're in a national emergency or not? as I recall "covered period" was earlier of i) declaration that emergency was over and ii) end of 2020...though the forbearance period can be up to 12 months, which is inconsistent with that. frankly, the forbearance period will be whatever the servicers agree to, and they will want as short a period as possible
Guest Covid-19_Survivor Posted April 7, 2020 Posted April 7, 2020 Latest from Josh Rosner... Please see GF&Co's report on #mortgage #Servicers #FHA #FHFA #GSEs & the #CaresAct: One concern of mine has been that people would take 12 months of not paying their mortgage even if economy opens back up in 2 months. However, Rosner's piece says that the forbearance assistance is only "during the covered period." Can anybody confirm that the "covered period" officially ends when Trump declares we're no longer in a national emergency? Does "national emergency" = "covered period"? Logic would say it does, but I want to be 100% sure. Thanks. Another way to put it, is there a chance "covered period" could mean the 180 days + 180 days and NOT be tied to the status of whether we're in a national emergency or not? I don't have the verbiage per verbatim in front of me but the bill did say that it was while we were in a national emergency. I do remember reading that. (5) COVERED PERIOD.—The term “covered period” means the period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act and ending on the sooner of— (A) the termination date of the national emergency concerning the novel coronavirus disease (COVID–19) outbreak declared by the President on March 13, 2020 under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.); or (B) December 31, 2020. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/text?loclr=bloglaw#toc-H4D5728D599DE43C1B10376E596A41BCE In plain English this means that from the enacting of CARES until the emergency has ended or 12/31/20, whichever comes first, the 12 month forbearance period may start. It's not good but 1) I don't know if it may be amended, and 2) FnF is paid up on pizzo for the year, so we're good.
Luke 532 Posted April 7, 2020 Posted April 7, 2020 DS5 (who?! LOL) interview with Calabria: https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-06-2020/ds5-fhfa-director-discusses-forbearance
allnatural Posted April 7, 2020 Posted April 7, 2020 "But i think at the end of the day if we're through the worst of the virus in the next, another 6 to 8 weeks, then i think we still see a large equity raise by the enterprises in 2021." Also mentioned there are a number of things they need to put in place prior to that (i'm assuming that includes the capital rule and PSPA amendment) DS5 (who?! LOL) interview with Calabria: https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-06-2020/ds5-fhfa-director-discusses-forbearance
investorG Posted April 7, 2020 Posted April 7, 2020 DS5 (who?! LOL) interview with Calabria: https://dsnews.com/daily-dose/04-06-2020/ds5-fhfa-director-discusses-forbearance Calabria's public attitude about this crisis is likely too relaxed. Hopefully there's preparation of plan B behind the scenes. The GSEs likely need capital asap to help out the mortgage system. Conveniently Mnuchin has a $500bn fund. While Calabria is wise to do his job as conservator, the MBA'rs are also correct imo, they should inject $ into them, cancel the sr pref, exercise the warrants and let the GSEs serve as intended. It was their fault they waited 3.5 years now they should rectify their mistake.
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