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Pretcher's predictions


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Interesting article - Munger's ( not the real one, but one that has taken the real life hero's name on this board ) hero Pretcher is predicting that the dow will go to 1000.


According to FT:


"...Robert Pretcher, the leading interpreter of the Elliot Wave principle and pioneer of "socionomics", which tracks cycles of social mood. Pretcher attained guru status in the 1970s and 1980s by predicting the bull market and later warning his clients to dump stocks just before the 1987 crash. Although he has tens of thousands of newsletter subscribers and numerous best selling books, Mr. Pretcher's painfully premature bearishness has hurt his popularity. Undaunted, he now predicts that the Dow will fall to 1000 - a drop that would exceed the great depression. He gives a socionomic explanation for public scepticism..."





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I for one am more than a little tired of market letter writers making outlandish forecasts. History is littered with Cassandras predicting the immanent demise of mkts or even nations. Elliot wave theorists get me especially annoyed. Mr Prechters nonsense should get no attention from any serious investor. I can assure every reader here that while the vast majority of Soothsayers may be quite entertaining the value they add to investment decisions is less than zero. The Hulbert report actually tracks their recommendations and in his learned opinion finding long term actionable wisdom amongst letter writers is very rare indeed. The future is always equally unknowable that is a physical constant like the speed of light, our individual and group perception of that undeniable uncertainty however can be used to profitably invest, in fact it may be the distilled esscence of what value investing is all about.

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Sure, but isn't the world supposed to end in 2012 anyway?  Given Prechter's forecast and the impending end of the world, it's obvious that the optimal solution is to simply liquidate our portfolios and expend the proceeds on wine, women, and song....





So your advice then is I should not bother to build a wine cellar that can hold more than a reasonable man can consume in the next year and bit  ....I will instruct my architect accordingly.

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Guest ValueCarl

If it weren't for the fact that a large swath of our political body are criminal, malfeasant overlords of capital, ones who have been operating recklessly for many decades now, I might be more optimistic of the outcomes which reside due north.


Certainly, there will be wise stewards of capital who triumph during the forward periods of stress tests and cracks which rumble inevitably across this globe.


I'm still looking towards, "The Fake Munger," as to his knowledge and opinion of Martin Armstrong, another wave theorist, in addition to prognosticator of future events unknown.


For me, Armstrong's "Behind the Curtain, The Full Monty!" remains a pivotal work for all open minds to ponder. It depicts Warren E. Buffett in a way that most have never seen him.




I recall asking Dr. Byrne about that once in order to clear my mind of any dubious thoughts regarding, "The Greatest One of them All." After all, even one of my earliest hero's in the sports world, Cassius Clay, aka, Mohammad Ali, was not without blemishes well beyond reasonable "contradictions."  Unfortunately, I never heard from Dr. Byrne again! :-(        

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As I've said a million times, there is only one thing wrong with Elliot Wave Theory: It doesn't work.


Having said that, I think some of the people (some, not all) who think we are immersed in  an era of serious economic trouble are right.


There's a difference between people who look at clearly out-of-whack debt levels in the US (and elsewhere) and make fairly logical inferences from them, and quacks peddling trite systems that supposedly "explain everything".


Prechter is the latter.

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