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Buffett Wins World Cup Insurance Wager


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Any thoughts as to what the thought process was?


Any insurance guys here know how you would price it as an insurance policy?



The policy would have to have been bought by a client ( not a bookmaker )that would have suffered a legitimate economic loss if France had won.  However, the policy could have been priced rationally by checking the odds the bookies were offering.  Does ____ Nike? Have an endorsement contract with every major national team but France?  Comments?


What sort of organization would have suffered a loss if France, but not a different country, had won?

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I had assumed that the client was someone involved in merchandising that could be affected by the outcome of the game, for example one article suggested this:


Carrefour SA, Europe’s biggest retailer, had a promotion in which customers buying flat-screen televisions would have been reimbursed if France won the tournament, according to its website. Customers would have gotten half of the purchase refunded if the team made the final without winning the tournament. A spokeswoman for the Paris-based retailer declined to comment.


France is generally a good team but did not perform well in the game, I wonder how detailed Jain got when evaluating the odds...

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