Tegridy Value LP

[DegenerateGambler]

On 7/18/2026 at 7:29 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

We've had a very good 2Q here at Tegridy. Please refer to the document below for our 2Q26 Letter.

Tegridy Value LP 2Q26 Letter.pdf 1.18 MB · 79 downloads

you are not nervous about "peak earnings" for SNDK in 2027?  When supply catches up to demand then suddenly the price of memory will plummet and at 7 times 2027 earnings it could still be expensive if it earns way less in 2028 and beyond.  I am willing to bet the capex cycle continues longer than people expect but "peak earnings" is one factor kind of making me nervous about SNDK.  Or you will hold out for 3-4 quarters of great earnings, wait for the stock to get re-rated, then get out?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

15 minutes ago, DegenerateGambler said:

you are not nervous about "peak earnings" for SNDK in 2027?  When supply catches up to demand then suddenly the price of memory will plummet and at 7 times 2027 earnings it could still be expensive if it earns way less in 2028 and beyond.  I am willing to bet the capex cycle continues longer than people expect but "peak earnings" is one factor kind of making me nervous about SNDK.  Or you will hold out for 3-4 quarters of great earnings, wait for the stock to get re-rated, then get out?

 

My aim is next 6-12 Qs. I think SNDK will do $400+ in CY27 EPS. From that perspective this is very cheap, don't even need a re-rate. Then you have HBF as well. Kimi K3 comes with a new KV cache optimization layer that shrinks cache by 75%. It is now 4x cheaper to just let cache stay because if you're not doing that then whenever the user comes back to the chat the labs will have to re-compute everything on the GPUs.

 

I have kept trimming SNDK. Started the position in Tegridy when stock was $400. It kept ballooning and becoming a bigger % of the book. Cut the proceeds from it to fund LQDA buying when the stock went down as well. Whats in the fund now is basically house money, or even less than that. 

 

NVDA ICMS architecture specs out roughly ~16TB of KV-cache capacity per GPU, ~150TB of context memory pool per rack, built from 100TB SSD modules, scaling up to a 10PB ICMS cluster serving an NVL72 rack-scale system. The Rubin generation that actually carries BlueField-4/ICMS enters rack mass production end of 3Q26, with ~5,000-7,000 VR200 racks in 2H26 and the real volume ramp in 2027 according the street.

 

The ICMS central case of 85-90EB would consume 60-75% of the entire industry's annual bit growth by itself. Then you add non-NVDA demand and we'd still be constrained. I think r/r for SNDK very good under $1,600/sh. 

[whatstheofficerproblem]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

Thank you. Great letter and returns.

 

Thank you!

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Cue GOOGL's earnings call. The CapEx train keeps going. Semis gonna double, opticals will likely triple. In the meantime, even they are gonna buy capacity from neoclouds. No way they can undercut or give a better deal to SMBs or competing wrappers than DOCN. So that's going run as well.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

This is also exactly what AMZN, MSFT & META calls are gonna look like. Onwards and up.

[DegenerateGambler]

4 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Cue GOOGL's earnings call. The CapEx train keeps going. Semis gonna double, opticals will likely triple. In the meantime, even they are gonna buy capacity from neoclouds. No way they can undercut or give a better deal to SMBs or competing wrappers than DOCN. So that's going run as well.

Opticals like AAOI/CRDO/LITE/COHR etc?  AAOI dropped like nearly 60%, i thought of picking up a few shares but chickened out.  I do like CRDO better than AAOI tho.

Afterhours today the AI names have not run yet on increased Google CapEx, which is kind of weird.  But i guess one day does not make a market.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

44 minutes ago, DegenerateGambler said:

Opticals like AAOI/CRDO/LITE/COHR etc?

 

Yes. LITE is the direct Google proxy. COHR mgmt not pumpers, but its the best managed company in the bunch. CRDO moves on whatever Hock Tan says. AAOI is dog shit operationally and product wise, but they're the higher beta name. So goes up and down more than the remainder. AAOI could work for a trade.