Tegridy Value LP

[whatstheofficerproblem]

I think they win. Lot of good posts in the LQDA thread.

[nafregnum]

I'm just about to put some Micron profits in LQDA, trying to decide between $55 Jan'27 calls, $55 Jan'28 calls or just buying and holding.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Depends on your conviction in the case AND timeline. If you think we get a favorable judgement before 2H26, then the Jan 27s have very juicy r/r assuming stock goes above $100. If you want less risk and more duration, say judge might not rule this year and might not rule favorably, then 28s will get you through the tougher times if they exist. 

 

I you want to say, I'm good and I don't need to worry about all that, then just buy the underlying and collect option premium like @lnofeisone.

 

I personally think we get a favorable decision before August. Hence put all my money in Jan 27s. I also think we see a step function change i.e. acceleration in revenues for Yutrepia right about starting 1Q26 which will be reported next week as this was the timeline for organic DPI inflection at UTHR. Should help the stock break past where it is range bound right now.

 

A bad UTHR print tomorrow morning will also certainly help.

[nafregnum]

Uh oh, I should've been more on the ball and bought them today.  I actually clicked the button on the options but hadn't realized it was a few minutes past market close, so I'll probably be kicking myself tomorrow morning.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

8 minutes ago, nafregnum said:

Uh oh, I should've been more on the ball and bought them today.  I actually clicked the button on the options but hadn't realized it was a few minutes past market close, so I'll probably be kicking myself tomorrow morning.

 

Don't lose sleep over it. I could have got my contracts for a few cents cheaper had I not thought we would have gotten a ruling by end of March and rushed to buy the calls. 

[moatrep]

There is the theory UTHR will post the last bullshit, so we will see if we can get some price. Lqda reports 11th.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

As 3Q26 edges closer, Tegridy is up ~25% as of today's close (5/6). I know not if this will last by end of the quarter, but who knew running our own play pretend fund could be so fun.

[moatrep]

Have you looked at Harrow? Looks like they are talking about 750m in revenue for 28, and mkap is 1.15b. Growing at >25% cagr. And with new lines also coming after 28. Some people I respect are talking about it as a candidate for multi bagger Just got intriged and wondering if you are following. Thanks!

Edited May 18 by moatrep

[whatstheofficerproblem]

8 minutes ago, moatrep said:

Have you looked at Harrow? Looks like they are talking about 750m in revenue for 28, and mkap is 1.15b. Growing at >25% cagr. And with new lines also coming after 28. Some people I respect are talking about it as a candidate for multi bagger Just got intriged and wondering if you are following. Thanks!

 

Haven't looked at Harrow. I am not a biotech specialist in that I don't have a PhD or depth on broader topics. Casting a wider net here when it's not your core competence and looking at more than the typical 3-4 names would imo work against you. The nature of this sector is that it's very hit or miss. You'd be risking 50% to gain 10% or even lose 10% more even on good data. You need to be a masochist to enjoy biotech and that is simply not my thing. Will likely start looking around when LQDA/INBX play out.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Fund is up ~80% as of 2Q26. Going to put out my 2Q26 letter soon.

[Red Lion]

On 7/2/2026 at 1:26 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Fund is up ~80% as of 2Q26. Going to put out my 2Q26 letter soon.

Very impressive. 

[valueseek]

On 7/2/2026 at 4:26 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Fund is up ~80% as of 2Q26. Going to put out my 2Q26 letter soon.

All the best in your future endeavors! you have been great here!!!

[Artha158]

On 7/2/2026 at 4:26 PM, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Fund is up ~80% as of 2Q26. Going to put out my 2Q26 letter soon.

Great! Appreciate your insight.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

We've had a very good 2Q here at Tegridy. Please refer to the document below for our 2Q26 Letter.

Tegridy Value LP 2Q26 Letter.pdf

[MungerWunger]

Congrats @whatstheofficerproblem

 

What a performance! Haven't been following this thread but wish I had.

Edited Sunday at 02:32 PM by MungerWunger

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Thank you @MungerWunger.

 

Looks like we're back to square one here. Kimi temporarily pausing new subscriptions and prioritizing compute for current members. Thinking is neoclouds would be one of the best expressions for OS, esp NBIS and the like as 1 ) US enterprises primarily access OS through platforms like token factory 2) compute rental.

 

Also considering selling some MGNI to open a DOCN position.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

DOCN is a 5% position effective today. Cut MGNI position by half.

[Artha158]

19 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

DOCN is a 5% position effective today. Cut MGNI position by half.

Bet on AI native cloud?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

1 hour ago, Artha158 said:

Bet on AI native cloud?

 

Basically yes. It's an inference bet, not one on GPUs. They're not renting bare metal to hyperscalers like CoreWeave, they sell the full stack (compute + inference engine + databases) to AI startups like Cursor that don't want to deal with AWS. Growth went 14% to 29% in a year, guiding 50%+ for 2027, and unlike the neoclouds they do it at 40% EBITDA margins with almost no debt. Backlog just 10x'd to $800M+. Not cheap anymore (~10x fwd sales), so I'm sized at 5% for a reason.

 

The multiple on this thing should sit somewhere between neoclouds and software which would imply we still have a ton of upside. Given the inflection in open source models, also see demand ramping from self serve customers.

 

My bet is that RPO continues to balloon from here on out as everyone is capacity constrained. As much as this story is about fundamentals, it's also a bet on momentum trade. Stock could end up being a multi-bagger by end of the year.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Should also note that the stock tanked from $180/sh because of stupid algos. Recent announcement where they issue common stock to fund a repurchase of up to $500M of the 2030 convertible notes read like dilution to the pod monkeys and algos and headline skimmers, and the stock got hit to ~$112 intraday.

 

But, the ~15.96M shares underlying those converts ($625M principal ÷ $1,000 * 25.53 conversion rate) were already sitting in the diluted share count as of the March 31 10-Q. The capped call transactions (strike $39.17, cap $66.51) mean the company's true economic exposure is only the spread, or roughly $436M, which is why the press release says "up to $500M."

 

Retiring the bonds simply migrates those shares from diluted to basic. Since diluted EPS is the number that matters anyway, the economics for shareholders here remains unchanged. Arguably it's mildly accretive as the company retires 16M shares of convert exposure while issuing only ~3.5-4M new shares at ~$120+ to fund it.

[Artha158]

9 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

Basically yes. It's an inference bet, not one on GPUs. They're not renting bare metal to hyperscalers like CoreWeave, they sell the full stack (compute + inference engine + databases) to AI startups like Cursor that don't want to deal with AWS. Growth went 14% to 29% in a year, guiding 50%+ for 2027, and unlike the neoclouds they do it at 40% EBITDA margins with almost no debt. Backlog just 10x'd to $800M+. Not cheap anymore (~10x fwd sales), so I'm sized at 5% for a reason.

 

The multiple on this thing should sit somewhere between neoclouds and software which would imply we still have a ton of upside. Given the inflection in open source models, also see demand ramping from self serve customers.

 

My bet is that RPO continues to balloon from here on out as everyone is capacity constrained. As much as this story is about fundamentals, it's also a bet on momentum trade. Stock could end up being a multi-bagger by end of the year.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Looks like momentum back on. DOCN up 13% today while SNDK up 10%.

 

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on DigitalOcean to $160 from $184 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the software group as part of a Q2 earnings preview. Barclays sees Q2 earnings as a continuation of trends from Q1. It remains too early for the software-as-a-service names to show significant AI upside, "which means there can't be a major reversal here yet," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes infrastructure names like Datadog will show ongoing momentum.

[whatstheofficerproblem]

They're gonna guide up. Price hike coming. Take a look at this.

 

https://www.digitalocean.com/blog/price-changes-gpus

[Artha158]

2 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

They're gonna guide up. Price hike coming. Take a look at this.

 

https://www.digitalocean.com/blog/price-changes-gpus

The starts are aligning...