MungerWunger Posted January 8 Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Eldad said: CNBC is where all the narrative trades and storytelling get pumped and told so compellingly to the herd. “10% will survive” is a start. I predict in 6 months it will be “software has a lot longer run way than we thought” Certainly hope you're right for my family's sake!
rickfromarizona Posted January 10 Posted January 10 My two ideas for 2026 Both these companies share 2 things in common. 1) Reducing complexity 2) Reducing leverage Ecovyst(ECVT) A mission critical service provider in the refiner sector trading at a P/E of 5x. EBIDTA margins ~40% in a rational oligopoly industry. They just divested a separate business unit and leverage now sits at 1.5x EBIDTA I’m expecting significant share repurchases in 2026. Driven Brands(DRVN) Trading at 5x P/E for a business with EBIDTA margins sit at ~35%. Recently divested the car wash segment and is now a pure play oil change and auto glass replacement that is growing. Leverage now sits around x3.2. The have a target debt multiple of x3. Once they hit that in Q2 I expect share repurchase at rock bottom prices.
UK Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, rickfromarizona said: My two ideas for 2026 Both these companies share 2 things in common. 1) Reducing complexity 2) Reducing leverage Ecovyst(ECVT) A mission critical service provider in the refiner sector trading at a P/E of 5x. EBIDTA margins ~40% in a rational oligopoly industry. They just divested a separate business unit and leverage now sits at 1.5x EBIDTA I’m expecting significant share repurchases in 2026. Driven Brands(DRVN) Trading at 5x P/E for a business with EBIDTA margins sit at ~35%. Recently divested the car wash segment and is now a pure play oil change and auto glass replacement that is growing. Leverage now sits around x3.2. The have a target debt multiple of x3. Once they hit that in Q2 I expect share repurchase at rock bottom prices. Thanks, but by simple look ECVT shows to me as trading at 19x and DRVN at 14x next year EPS?
rickfromarizona Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) Maybe I’m missing something. I show Ecovyst Ecoservices as a 200M EBIDTA. DRVN brands EBIDTA around 450M. Edited January 10 by rickfromarizona
Whensthepaintdry? Posted January 10 Posted January 10 It’s been a while, but I looked at vvv in the past. They were trading around 10x ebitda. They did a decent job reducing shares after selling part of the business.
UK Posted January 10 Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, rickfromarizona said: Maybe I’m missing something. I show Ecovyst Ecoservices as a 200M EBIDTA. DRVN brands EBIDTA around 450M. Yea, but if you was refering to the EBITDA multiple, then wouldnt you also need to include debt, with total EV being ~2 B, which would lead to ~10x EV/Ebitda in ECVT case?
Rainier Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/14/2026 at 2:23 PM, kh812000 said: Best Ideas AD AMPG SNDK GOOG Any thoughts on the news this morning on AMPG? https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1518461/000149315226003533/form8-k.htm
kh812000 Posted February 4 Posted February 4 On 1/26/2026 at 12:09 PM, Rainier said: Any thoughts on the news this morning on AMPG? https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1518461/000149315226003533/form8-k.htm Finalized its announced rights offering to fund working capital and deliver its backlog of orders.
Saluki Posted March 10 Posted March 10 I've noticed that I've unintentionally started a basket of tech/software companies that have been halved or more by the AI apocalypse, and which I believe will recover or do well. I think the small, new positions I have in Tyler, TBTC, Constellation, VRRM, DOCS, will end up doing well, even if they go lower this year. Nintendo, which I owned for a couple of years has retreated, and is a midsize position, which I have nibbled on will do well too. If I didn't already own Nintendo, I would buy more, but I'm very mindful about position sizes lately.
moatrep Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 50% Fairfax 30% Mty group (founder wanting to sell due to retirement, may happen soon) 10% Exor After that I get diversifed positions on fairfax india, cvrx, pearl abyss, markel, BLDR, crocs, and some other smaller positions. I have 15% on margin, if MTY group is sold I will move more on the diversified portfolio. Having fairfax doing half of the work helps me to not make that many mistakes, I can focus on my best ideas and optimal sizing. If not my brain will fry and will default to bad moves. Edited April 8 by moatrep
Rainier Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM @kh812000 Are you still holding AMPG after the price run up? Thanks for the idea, I'm up 70% on it.
Malmqky Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM Posted Tuesday at 07:23 PM On 12/19/2025 at 9:57 AM, Malmqky said: Nintendo for the third year in a row. Also CROX. Closed CROX leaps and rolled proceeds into more Nintendo, probably will regret it. oh well
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