Jogging vs Sprinting and Performance Returns

[Saluki]

With the recent pops in Google and Coupang, I am no longer underperforming the market this year. I should just focus on outperforming over the long term (jogging), not the short term (sprinting), but it's hard not to let it affect you when you see others doing really well on companies that you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole (Palantir at 80x revenues), and then try to educate you on what you are doing wrong. "JOE? let me pull up the chart...that's gone no where." or "what do you mean you don't have crypto?" 

 

And when I see people who were previously mentioned in the same sentence with Buffett (which is the kiss of death for future performance) and have decades long track records that now are worse than the passive index, it makes me wonder if the only reason that Buffett is still on top is because he kept changing and didn't hang it up (or pass away) while his investing style was still working. The "other Oracle of Omaha" now has 40 year track record that lags the passive index and he's got a large team of people who do stuff 5 days a week and the result is worse than doing nothing. Klarman gives few interviews but claimed he never strayed from traditional cigar butt stuff because it still works. He's rich (from fees) but his investors probably aren't too happy. 

 

The early Buffett fund did really well, and so did BRK shareholders. But if BRK had a 2 and 20 fee structure, it wouldn't a great outcome for shareholders. So maybe the effort is worth it if there are no fees involved (like WIkipedia vs Encyclopedia Britanica)? 

 

Life changes probably affected me too. I figured out after the 2008 crash that the math isn't hard but the emotional regulation is key. As Peter Lynch said, if you can add 8+8 and get a number close to 16, then you have good enough math to make it as an investor, but the stomach is the more important organ. Since I'm "retired" and don't have a nice steady paycheck coming in all the time which covers all my expenses and leaves enough to keep investing in new ideas while keeping the old ones, I've have to trim peridocally, and if I have to do it at bad market prices, then it makes me more cautious, which means fewer positions. That means that my odds of outperforming (or underperforming) go up, but also increases variability, which is bad when you are retired, so it makes the Buffett "punchcard" advice more relevant. 

 

Some things which helped me lately:

 

1) I trade between 9:30-10:30am so that I don't look at the market all day and get tempted to do something silly

2) I've been dipping my toe in with options, and selling puts on companies that I would buy at today's prices gives me free money occasionally and a better entry point other times. 

3) I've been rotating out of crappy companies that i've made money on in the past and focussed on long-term compounder potential. It's frustrating when I sell something like STNG which I think is worth more "someday" and will come down again after as usual, and after I sell it goes up 15% the next week, but the trading curse is what it is. 

4) I'm being more careful with cash management. I have 3 brokerage accounts because some stocks (POWWP) are only on Merrill, and others like TBTC are only on Schwab, but margin rates are best on Robinhood, so I try keeping the event driven stuff on there with a little margin, and the stuff I want to keep for years on Merrill and Schwab. I also made the login phrase long on Merrill and Schwab so that I can make quick trades in Robinhood but I would have to make a bigger effort to login into ML or Schwab to sell Fairfax or JOE. 

5) I use this board as a research tool and an advisory board. There is a great amount of crowdsourced wisdom on any obscure stock I am looking at, so thanks guys and gals. 

 

1YR

 

 

From September 1, 2024 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

17.03%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

16.56%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

3YR   

From September 1, 2022 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

95.26%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

71.82%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

5YR

From September 1, 2020 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

163.01%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

100.07%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

 

 

 

 

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[73 Reds]

14 minutes ago, Saluki said:

With the recent pops in Google and Coupang, I am no longer underperforming the market this year. I should just focus on outperforming over the long term (jogging), not the short term (sprinting), but it's hard not to let it affect you when you see others doing really well on companies that you wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole (Palantir at 80x revenues), and then try to educate you on what you are doing wrong. "JOE? let me pull up the chart...that's gone no where." or "what do you mean you don't have crypto?" 

 

And when I see people who were previously mentioned in the same sentence with Buffett (which is the kiss of death for future performance) and have decades long track records that now are worse than the passive index, it makes me wonder if the only reason that Buffett is still on top is because he kept changing and didn't hang it up (or pass away) while his investing style was still working. The "other Oracle of Omaha" now has 40 year track record that lags the passive index and he's got a large team of people who do stuff 5 days a week and the result is worse than doing nothing. Klarman gives few interviews but claimed he never strayed from traditional cigar butt stuff because it still works. He's rich (from fees) but his investors probably aren't too happy. 

 

The early Buffett fund did really well, and so did BRK shareholders. But if BRK had a 2 and 20 fee structure, it wouldn't a great outcome for shareholders. So maybe the effort is worth it if there are no fees involved (like WIkipedia vs Encyclopedia Britanica)? 

 

Life changes probably affected me too. I figured out after the 2008 crash that the math isn't hard but the emotional regulation is key. As Peter Lynch said, if you can add 8+8 and get a number close to 16, then you have good enough math to make it as an investor, but the stomach is the more important organ. Since I'm "retired" and don't have a nice steady paycheck coming in all the time which covers all my expenses and leaves enough to keep investing in new ideas while keeping the old ones, I've have to trim peridocally, and if I have to do it at bad market prices, then it makes me more cautious, which means fewer positions. That means that my odds of outperforming (or underperforming) go up, but also increases variability, which is bad when you are retired, so it makes the Buffett "punchcard" advice more relevant. 

 

Some things which helped me lately:

 

1) I trade between 9:30-10:30am so that I don't look at the market all day and get tempted to do something silly

2) I've been dipping my toe in with options, and selling puts on companies that I would buy at today's prices gives me free money occasionally and a better entry point other times. 

3) I've been rotating out of crappy companies that i've made money on in the past and focussed on long-term compounder potential. It's frustrating when I sell something like STNG which I think is worth more "someday" and will come down again after as usual, and after I sell it goes up 15% the next week, but the trading curse is what it is. 

4) I'm being more careful with cash management. I have 3 brokerage accounts because some stocks (POWWP) are only on Merrill, and others like TBTC are only on Schwab, but margin rates are best on Robinhood, so I try keeping the event driven stuff on there with a little margin, and the stuff I want to keep for years on Merrill and Schwab. I also made the login phrase long on Merrill and Schwab so that I can make quick trades in Robinhood but I would have to make a bigger effort to login into ML or Schwab to sell Fairfax or JOE. 

5) I use this board as a research tool and an advisory board. There is a great amount of crowdsourced wisdom on any obscure stock I am looking at, so thanks guys and gals. 

 

1YR

 

 

From September 1, 2024 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

17.03%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

16.56%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

3YR   

From September 1, 2022 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

95.26%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

71.82%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

5YR

From September 1, 2020 to September 8, 2025

Showing prior-day close of business data Select to view help about how often this performance data is calculated

Cumulative time weighted return

163.01%

Select to view help aboutHow is this cumulative time weighted returnvalue calculated?

S&P 500 TR View selected benchmark index help

 

100.07%

Select a benchmark indexto compare with your historical performance from the dropdown menu in the layer

 

 

 

 

Expand

 

 

 

 

 

 

@Saluki  The following is not intended as advice for you or anyone, but this is what worked for me in "retirement":  Its been 25 years since I received a paycheck of any kind.   The first key for my own investment freedom was to have a lot of cash available at all times.  Cash can be in bank savings, MMFs, short term bonds or any substitute that you feel is safe and liquid.  How much cash is up to you.  The second key is to own at least some investments that generate a lot of cash.  The investments can consist of anything - stocks, bonds, private investments, real estate, private businesses, etc.. And finally, the third key is to have no debt.  Then, adjust your lifestyle so that your income vastly exceeds your spending.  That's it.  

Edited September 9, 2025 by 73 Reds
spelling

[Eng12345]

Idk — you do a lot more trading and moving in and out of stocks than I do. You're also in a different position than me, since you’re retired while I’m still relatively young and working.

 

With that said, I think it might be valuable for you to look at it another way. If you’re making market returns, you’re probably beating ~90% of retirees, most of whom are sitting in some kind of lifecycle fund or bogged down with “low-risk” stuff like bonds—or whatever else financial advisors tend to push on older investors.

 

(I’ll skip the treatise on what “risk” even is, and why the financial industry defines it the way it does—we’ve all heard the various value-related maxims.)

 

I’ll also skip the treatise on why the S&P 500 is considered the best benchmark. It doesn’t really make sense on a big-picture level. The best-performing companies of the most affluent nation are what we’re supposed to compare everyone’s returns to? Why? If the whole world invested in the S&P 500, where would that leave us? Not to mention, just owning the S&P 500 comes with its own risks that many people understate.

 

I know the above is a bit rambling, but when I read your post, it wasn’t entirely clear to me why you invest if your performance is just comparative to the S&P 500. If that’s the standard you want to measure against, then why not just buy the index?

 

Now, if I were you, I’d probably look at my portfolio and say it has much more upward/right-tail potential, and that would be fair. But if you have more upside potential while ending up with the same returns, do you really have the same returns?

[Longnose]

Comparison is the thief of joy.

 

That being said its hard not to compare ourselves. Something that i re-read recently in poor charlies alamanac that I actually readjusted my portfolio pretty substantially about 1.5 months ago. 

 

"I think it can be a rational choice, in some situations, for a family or foundation to remain ninety percent concentrated in one equity. Indeed, I hope the Mungers follow roughly this course."

 

I realized i was getting pretty spread around and that I really should be concentrating into what I really believe in. So i sold a lot of my positions and I really now only have like four.  I dont yet have the balls to be all in on one. But maybe ill get there.  I think diversification really drags on a portfolio and having a few really strong bets can really move the needle. (in either direction) Munger was early on BABA. But its rebounding. It will likely get back to what it was and beyond.