On the Edge - Nate Silver

[james22]

[wescobrk]

I’m only half way through but I think this is a very good book.

[texual]

I ordered it and eager to check it out. Thanks for the recc. 

 

[james22]

Real interesting, but entirely overlooks the category of Conservative Riverians.

 

Those with the Riverian cognitive and personality clusters (inclined to quantify), but recognize its limitations:

 

The constrained vision puts a premium on “systematic rationality.” This simply refers to the collective experience and wisdom contained in long-evolved social processes and systems. Since the constrained vision doesn’t think that any one person or small group of individuals can really become smart enough to dictate decisions for everyone else, the combined knowledge held in culture, tradition, legal precedent, and other structures is superior. This knowledge gets created by a survival of the fittest society. If our society has survived thus far, that means it has beaten out other competing societies that have failed. Mankind will probably not be able to understand everything about the system that makes it good, and as such should simply trust its lasting success and view admonitions for significant change with suspicion.

 

 

https://thedurfblog.com/the-conflict-of-visions-explained/

 

Doesn't seem to recognize that if the Village is "distinctly left-of-center" and the EA and Rationalist wings of Riverians are 13:1 and 2.6:1 registered Democrats vs Republicans (respectively), he's missing most conservatives. Who, dismissive of intentions in favor of outcomes and assume trade offs over solutions, etc., reside most naturally in the River.

 

Even mentions evolutionary psychology and Chesterton's Fence, but doesn't follow how they would influence a Riverian.

[james22]

He comes across as very fair, but must be in something of a bubble that he speaks (almost) only with the Left in the book.

 

There's lots of Country Club/Chamber of Commerce (Establishment) Republicans in the Village as well.

 

That he doesn't consider how River/Village relates to Conservative/Liberal suggests he's without "strategic empathy."

[pricingpower]

I thought the sections on FTX / AI were particularly interesting, it was written more like his personal impressions of the people than a particularly agenda'd piece (looking at Michael Lewis).  I think what I mostly took away from the book was a kind of tribal world view of the numerate poker and tech people overlap but less engagement with the "money mind" finance crowd.  Probably doesn't particularly make me a better investor but I do feel like a more informed citizen.

[wescobrk]

The part with SBF wouldn’t hesitate to blow up the world if it had positive EV.

im glad that psychopath is in jail.

[james22]

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/book-review-on-the-edge-the-fundamentals