Elon needs more Tesla stock to motivate him

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Gmthebeau said:

I think it is probably one of the best shorts on the board.   Once it starts trading like an auto maker, which is all it really is, it probably has downside to about $50.

 

I've been hearing this for at least four years. I took my shot a couple years ago and my puts expired out of the money.

[Gmthebeau]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Be careful shorting cults.......be doubly careful shorting cults where the founder/CEO has a history of saying anything to pump the stock (funding secured/FSD etc.)......not saying dont do it (I've done it myself and made $$$) but size it appropriately.

 

Better yet - the time to go after TSLA  is if/when Musk is gone...and it gets a CEO who cares about his reputation and SEC disclosures/violations. Musk is above all that and remains IMO the greatest salesman of our age.

 

He is a total carnival barker.  I made a killing on it riding the momentum up in 2020-2021.  I briefly traded it for 25%ish gain last year.  I have been waiting to short it.  It is very weak as evidenced by the fact that it never approached its old high like MSFT, NVDA, and all the good companies.   I was hoping it would rally back to 240s then short it.  I think the time to short it is soon.  EV market is weak in general, he is an unfocused mess desperate to grab cash while he can after blowing it on a twitter bender, Toyota has not even entered it yet.  I expect TSLA to take a beatdown this year, and eventually when Toyota enters it will totally plunge.  I think the cult is mostly gone.  There are probably some who bought the top and still hoping to get back to even.  

Edited January 19 by Gmthebeau

[Gmthebeau]

9 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

I've been hearing this for at least four years. I took my shot a couple years ago and my puts expired out of the money.

 

It was to early to short it when it had momentum and they were effectively the only player in the EV game.  It was time to be long then.   Circumstances are changed now.  The fact that people has lost interest in shorting it shows the time is coming.

Edited January 19 by Gmthebeau

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/18/2024 at 11:01 AM, Haryana said:

His message never asked for more stock but only for more voting power.

He may have thought this to be possible by introducing dual class share.

However, there appears to be some regulation that restrict that post IPO.

 

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/article-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-wants-at-least-25-voting-control-at-tesla-before/

[In a separate post on X, he said he would be fine with a dual-class share structure to achieve his goal of getting 25-per-cent voting control, but was told it was impossible after Tesla’s initial public offering.

“It’s weird that a crazy multi-class share structure like Meta has, which gives the next 20+ generations of Zuckerbergs control, is fine pre-IPO, but even a reasonable dual-class is not allowed post-IPO,” he said, referring to the Facebook parent’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg.

Companies with dual-class structures have two or more types of shares with different voting rights – usually one with greater voting rights for founders or early investors and another for other shareholders with less voting power.]

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-completes-brit-acquisition-2015-06-12/

Even Prem Watsa had to take extraordinary actions to maintain his voting control. From what I remember, he rather had limits/reductions placed on his compensation in return.

 

 

I mean, Google did it. So it's not impossible as he seems to be implying. 

[Haryana]

 

I suspect this has been his subconscious plan from the get-go to go get'em all riled up.
He likely finally settles with some restructuring resulting a new Tesla ticker on exchange that gives him disproportionate voting power without as much economic interest.
By then he would have taken everyone for a ride for the umpteenth time.
He is known to operate Tesla without sales or marketing expenditure because he is good at getting that for free from the waiting to be inflamed mouths on radios.

 

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/comparing-teslas-spending-on-rd-and-marketing-per-car-to-other-automakers/

 

[Gmthebeau]

47 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

I suspect this has been his subconscious plan from the get-go to go get'em all riled up.
He likely finally settles with some restructuring resulting a new Tesla ticker on exchange that gives him disproportionate voting power without as much economic interest.
By then he would have taken everyone for a ride for the umpteenth time.
He is known to operate Tesla without sales or marketing expenditure because he is good at getting that for free from the waiting to be inflamed mouths on radios.

 

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/comparing-teslas-spending-on-rd-and-marketing-per-car-to-other-automakers/

 

 

Hertz gave him some free advertising when they said they were dumping a boatload of them because nobody wants to rent them.

[Haryana]

4 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

Hertz gave him some free advertising when they said they were dumping a boatload of them because nobody wants to rent them.

 

Hertz CEO said “Tesla is among the best-selling cars in America, ...

https://news.yahoo.com/hertz-shrink-electric-fleet-following-050000581.html

 

The issue with Hertz is overexcited renters damaging their Teslas that they are driving for the first time. Owners take better care of it.

 

[ValueArb]

16 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

Hertz CEO said “Tesla is among the best-selling cars in America, ...

https://news.yahoo.com/hertz-shrink-electric-fleet-following-050000581.html

 

The issue with Hertz is overexcited renters damaging their Teslas that they are driving for the first time. Owners take better care of it.

 

 

Scherr gave multiple reasons including Teslas high depreciation rates due to the price cuts, that Teslas are expensive to repair and it refused to give Hertz the customer discounts on repair parts discounts they get from other car makers, and lastly the higher accident rates (which all EVs have when being driven by unfamiliar drivers). 

[Haryana]

 

Hertz experience is irrelavant because those issues are mostly specific to rental business. They get renters inexperienced with EV over and over again. 

 

Individual owner drivers also have more accidents in the first year but then they get a better hang of it and the accident rates drop after the first year.

 

Regardless, even bad publicity is good for Tesla as buyers have their own reasons to buy and they just have to reminded which media does for free.

 

[Gmthebeau]

21 hours ago, Haryana said:

 

Hertz experience is irrelavant because those issues are mostly specific to rental business. They get renters inexperienced with EV over and over again. 

 

Individual owner drivers also have more accidents in the first year but then they get a better hang of it and the accident rates drop after the first year.

 

Regardless, even bad publicity is good for Tesla as buyers have their own reasons to buy and they just have to reminded which media does for free.

 

 

I am just hoping Elon. can put enough lipstick on this pig this quarter to get it to rally to 240 a good place to short it.   It is nowhere near its old high while everything else is at or above old highs so the market is telling you this thing is going lower.