Interesting Option Trades

[backtothebeach]

Looking at possible option plays on CELH. Thesis: At some point the stock should bottom out and stabilize in a range between $25-35 with a lot of volatility. A quick rebound to $35+ is also possible. Risk: It's a falling knife, could go below $20 if they start losing market share. So I would want to limit the downside.

 

With CELH at $29:

Diagonal spread:

+ Jan 2026 $25 call @ 11.00

- Jan 2025 $35 call @ 2.50

net cost 8.50

 

Downside reasonably protected.

Flexibility to sell more calls at same or lower strike prices during all of 2025.

This is a high volatility stock, especially around earnings, so premiums are good.

 

I feel this is not ideal yet... any thoughts?

 

Edited October 9 by backtothebeach

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

Looking at possible option plays on CELH. Thesis: At some point the stock should bottom out and stabilize in a range between $25-35 with a lot of volatility. A quick rebound to $35+ is also possible. Risk: It's a falling knife, could go below $20 if they start losing market share. So I would want to limit the downside.

 

With CELH at $29:

Diagonal spread:

+ Jan 2026 $25 call @ 11.00

- Jan 2025 $35 call @ 2.50

net cost 9.50

 

Downside reasonably protected.

Flexibility to sell more calls at same or lower strike prices during all of 2025.

This is a high volatility stock, especially around earnings, so premiums are good.

 

I feel this is not ideal yet... any thoughts?

They are reporting around 11/5 so you have a lot of vol priced in. I'd consider selling Nov 15 or Nov 22 $35s as these will get vol crushed on earnings.  You are giving up around $1 on the downside upfront, but you'll probably be able to recover $3 or so in premium if you get the opportunity to roll in December and January if the stock stays flat or runs higher.

[backtothebeach]

57 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

They are reporting around 11/5 so you have a lot of vol priced in. I'd consider selling Nov 15 or Nov 22 $35s as these will get vol crushed on earnings.  You are giving up around $1 on the downside upfront, but you'll probably be able to recover $3 or so in premium if you get the opportunity to roll in December and January if the stock stays flat or runs higher.

 

Thank you, good alternative unless the stock tanks on earnings.

 

Your suggestions on EBAY upthread were spot on by the way. EBAY running up steadily helped of course. Thank you and also to @Gregmal for coming up with EBAY as a candidate!

 

Edited October 9 by backtothebeach

[lnofeisone]

44 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Thank you, good alternative unless the stock tanks on earnings.

 

Your suggestions on EBAY upthread were spot on by the way. EBAY running up steadily helped of course. Thank you and also to @Gregmal for coming up with EBAY as a candidate!

 

Glad it was helpful /EBAY. It certainly helps when stock price and timing cooperate. 

 

As far as CELH, if they tank on earnings, you are giving up the $1 of protection for a chance to make $3 if they don't tank earnings. Your call if that's a risk you can tolerate. 

[lnofeisone]

On 10/9/2024 at 8:45 AM, backtothebeach said:

Looking at possible option plays on CELH. Thesis: At some point the stock should bottom out and stabilize in a range between $25-35 with a lot of volatility. A quick rebound to $35+ is also possible. Risk: It's a falling knife, could go below $20 if they start losing market share. So I would want to limit the downside.

 

With CELH at $29:

Diagonal spread:

+ Jan 2026 $25 call @ 11.00

- Jan 2025 $35 call @ 2.50

net cost 8.50

 

Downside reasonably protected.

Flexibility to sell more calls at same or lower strike prices during all of 2025.

This is a high volatility stock, especially around earnings, so premiums are good.

 

I feel this is not ideal yet... any thoughts?

 

nice trade. already worked out

[backtothebeach]

13 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

nice trade. already worked out

 

Yeah that was fast, lol. I just closed it. The trade made around 40-50% of its max profit in 1 day (assuming a volatility crush after earnings in November), so do really want to wait around 3 more months for an uncertain outcome?

 

I also put on a smaller trade at the variant you suggested (short Nov 2024 $35 call), I'll probably keep that one rollin'.