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Trade Idea and Another Market Lesson


Gregmal
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Short MUDS warrants

 

SPAC supposed to merge with card giant Topps. Topps for those that dont know, along with Upper Deck have basically held duopoly or even monopoly on specific sports for the trading card licenses...for years. Decades even. Despite this, both have on and off flirted with or filed bankruptcy protection, along with tons of others past like Fleer, Bowman, etc. 

 

Typical SPAC fashion they consummated this merger at or near a top of a generation boom for trading cards. In a vacuum, this seems OK. However this afternoon WSJ broke news that Fanatics had likely poached the MLB deal from Topps after like a 70 year marriage. Without MLB, Topps is pretty much worthless. There is NO WAY any right minded shareholder should vote in favor of this deal now. If they do, its almost certainly IMO a 0. Either way, the warrants IMO are worthless. Early bird gets the worm. They traded in 2s after news broke but due to holder base will probably have some value left tomorrow in the AM. 

 

Now life lesson for market speculators.....someone at Topps/Mudrick is probably VERY pissed this leaked a week before shareholder vote. But just getting back to SPACville, you better believe Topps, which has a 70 year relationship with MLB, knew this was real or even happening long ago. On the surface, shareholders, many institutions may have looked at this and seen the obvious..that you may be buying the cycle top if you participate, but the devils lurking beneath turned out to be far more ominous. And you just never know when its coming, but with SPACs its almost always there. Something to remember next time you think a SPAC looks good(and for those of you that know, yea, Im kind of working on a pre deal SPAC long idea right now but dont hold it against me LOL will post that here when I'm ready)

Edited by Gregmal
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