This is your brain on venture capital

[DTEJD1997]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

 

I think it scales if & when autonomous driving takes hold.

You buy shares to pass on to your grandkids.

 

 

edit: I meant re: Uber & Lyft.

 

Why would Uber & Lyft want automated driving?

 

If they have an automated driving fleet, they are going to have to buy automated cars.  These cars are not going to be cheap.  Then they are going to have to insure them.  Then they are going to have to fuel them.  Then they are going to to have to maintain them.  Then they are going to have to replace them.

 

This is going to cost billions of dollars, perhaps even tens of billions of dollars.  Where is Uber going to get all that capital?  They sure as $@#% going to do it out of retained earnings.  That then leaves borrowing the money OR selling more stock.

 

NOW, Uber's drivers do all of that for them.  Uber's drivers are providing a LOT of capital by providing the vehicles.

 

At current pricing, or anything near it, Uber's business model simply does not work.

[Spekulatius]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

 

I think it scales if & when autonomous driving takes hold.

You buy shares to pass on to your grandkids.

 

 

edit: I meant re: Uber & Lyft.

 

Why would Uber & Lyft want automated driving?

 

If they have an automated driving fleet, they are going to have to buy automated cars.  These cars are not going to be cheap.  Then they are going to have to insure them.  Then they are going to have to fuel them.  Then they are going to to have to maintain them.  Then they are going to have to replace them.

 

This is going to cost billions of dollars, perhaps even tens of billions of dollars.  Where is Uber going to get all that capital?  They sure as $@#% going to do it out of retained earnings.  That then leaves borrowing the money OR selling more stock.

 

NOW, Uber's drivers do all of that for them.  Uber's drivers are providing a LOT of capital by providing the vehicles.

 

At current pricing, or anything near it, Uber's business model simply does not work.

 

Well, if you believe in the “capital as a moat theory”, then the above is really a bull case and just requires to throw a few hundred billions at this problem. At the point in the future this occurs, we are likely used to these numbers.

[DooDiligence]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

 

I think it scales if & when autonomous driving takes hold.

You buy shares to pass on to your grandkids.

 

 

edit: I meant re: Uber & Lyft.

 

Why would Uber & Lyft want automated driving?

 

If they have an automated driving fleet, they are going to have to buy automated cars.  These cars are not going to be cheap.  Then they are going to have to insure them.  Then they are going to have to fuel them.  Then they are going to to have to maintain them.  Then they are going to have to replace them.

 

This is going to cost billions of dollars, perhaps even tens of billions of dollars.  Where is Uber going to get all that capital?  They sure as $@#% going to do it out of retained earnings.  That then leaves borrowing the money OR selling more stock.

 

NOW, Uber's drivers do all of that for them.  Uber's drivers are providing a LOT of capital by providing the vehicles.

 

At current pricing, or anything near it, Uber's business model simply does not work.

 

My thought was for a distant future where there are no human drivers and the business of these guys changes to dispatch & operation as a service for whoever winds up providing the vehicles.

 

Just noodling around on a scenario that I'll likely never live long enough to see.

[Pelagic]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

 

I think it scales if & when autonomous driving takes hold.

You buy shares to pass on to your grandkids.

 

 

edit: I meant re: Uber & Lyft.

 

Why would Uber & Lyft want automated driving?

 

If they have an automated driving fleet, they are going to have to buy automated cars.  These cars are not going to be cheap.  Then they are going to have to insure them.  Then they are going to have to fuel them.  Then they are going to to have to maintain them.  Then they are going to have to replace them.

 

This is going to cost billions of dollars, perhaps even tens of billions of dollars.  Where is Uber going to get all that capital?  They sure as $@#% going to do it out of retained earnings.  That then leaves borrowing the money OR selling more stock.

 

NOW, Uber's drivers do all of that for them.  Uber's drivers are providing a LOT of capital by providing the vehicles.

 

At current pricing, or anything near it, Uber's business model simply does not work.

 

My thought was for a distant future where there are no human drivers and the business of these guys changes to dispatch & operation as a service for whoever winds up providing the vehicles.

 

Just noodling around on a scenario that I'll likely never live long enough to see.

 

It'd still be in their best interest to let suckers like us buy the cars and then let them earn some money through their platform while we're not using them. This would be an ideal scenario for a lot of users where you have total use of your car when you want it but it can also bring in some income when you're not using it.

 

The idea that Uber or Lyft will pivot to be massive self driving fleet owners has always struck me as far fetched. It seems like a massive capital outlay for little if any additional margin on each trip. We already know many drivers are underestimating wear and tear on their cars and barely breaking even when all costs are factored in, why would Uber/Lyft pass up a good thing like this. My cynical theory is that self driving cars and a massive fleet of them will require hundreds of billions more in investor capital a fraction of which will fund salaries for employees and buoy the stock price for a while longer allowing more value to be extracted by current shareholders.

[DooDiligence]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

 

I think it scales if & when autonomous driving takes hold.

You buy shares to pass on to your grandkids.

 

 

edit: I meant re: Uber & Lyft.

 

Why would Uber & Lyft want automated driving?

 

If they have an automated driving fleet, they are going to have to buy automated cars.  These cars are not going to be cheap.  Then they are going to have to insure them.  Then they are going to have to fuel them.  Then they are going to to have to maintain them.  Then they are going to have to replace them.

 

This is going to cost billions of dollars, perhaps even tens of billions of dollars.  Where is Uber going to get all that capital?  They sure as $@#% going to do it out of retained earnings.  That then leaves borrowing the money OR selling more stock.

 

NOW, Uber's drivers do all of that for them.  Uber's drivers are providing a LOT of capital by providing the vehicles.

 

At current pricing, or anything near it, Uber's business model simply does not work.

 

My thought was for a distant future where there are no human drivers and the business of these guys changes to dispatch & operation as a service for whoever winds up providing the vehicles.

 

Just noodling around on a scenario that I'll likely never live long enough to see.

 

It'd still be in their best interest to let suckers like us buy the cars and then let them earn some money through their platform while we're not using them. This would be an ideal scenario for a lot of users where you have total use of your car when you want it but it can also bring in some income when you're not using it.

 

The idea that Uber or Lyft will pivot to be massive self driving fleet owners has always struck me as far fetched. It seems like a massive capital outlay for little if any additional margin on each trip. We already know many drivers are underestimating wear and tear on their cars and barely breaking even when all costs are factored in, why would Uber/Lyft pass up a good thing like this. My cynical theory is that self driving cars and a massive fleet of them will require hundreds of billions more in investor capital a fraction of which will fund salaries for employees and buoy the stock price for a while longer allowing more value to be extracted by current shareholders.

 

I may have read too much scifi & watched too many Jetsons episodes as a kid.

 

That said, I'd never buy into any of these sharing economy businesses.

 

Being an end user is definitely a great deal though.

[Read the Footnotes]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

If it wasn't clear, I was joking and making fun of VC in both my posts. Anyone who bothered to follow the link should have figured that out.

[rb]

The next level, highly innovative, super patented, impossible to replicate mobility solution.

 

[DooDiligence]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

If it wasn't clear, I was joking and making fun of VC in both my posts. Anyone who bothered to follow the link should have figured that out.

 

I stopped watching when I heard Venn diagram.

[DooDiligence]

The next level, highly innovative, super patented, impossible to replicate mobility solution.

 

 

They should hook up with Weight Watchers.

[meiroy]

 

This can't be good for his back.

[Read the Footnotes]

So they lose 8 dollars a pizza, or about 25%.

The question is, will this scale?

 

If it wasn't clear, I was joking and making fun of VC in both my posts. Anyone who bothered to follow the link should have figured that out.

 

I stopped watching when I heard Venn diagram.

It gets worse and more ridiculous than Venn diagrams, but what else would you expect from a video by Sarah Cooper, the same woman who brought us these gems: