Airlines risk

[Cardboard]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/business/airlines-climate-change-emissions/index.html

 

I wonder how Buffett has priced in the risk of climate change and incoming crazy politicians such as AOC into his relatively important airline investments?

 

I sense that there will be a strong movement to demonize air travelling. Could this lead people to travel less?

 

For example, corporations have used 911 and corresponding higher fares and travel time to encourage less air travel and greater use of conference calls.

 

My experience is that corporations slowed down air travel for a while then, when the economy got better, they pretty much returned to same or higher level.

 

Could it be different this time around? What about leisure travel?

 

Cardboard

[StubbleJumper]

Travel less often?  Not on your life!  The price of airline tickets has been plunging in real terms and people have gotten accustomed to flying where ever they want at the drop of a hat (and at the drop of $500).  To quote GHB, "The American way of life is not up for negotiation!"  We are not going to put on a sweater and turn down the temperature just because Jimmy Carter tells us to do so!

 

I have observed that every tourist destination now seems to be increasingly overrun with tourists from two very large countries with rapidly growing economies (they shall go unnamed, but you know who they are).  The rapidly growing middle class in those countries can afford to drop $1,500 on an occasional international flight and they are doing so in greater numbers.  There's not a chance in hell that they will eschew a visit to the world's principal Instagram destinations just out of concern about greenhouse gasses. 

 

My recommendation to people is that they visit the world's most popular tourist destinations sooner rather than later, because before long they will probably all go the way of Venice.

 

 

SJ

[bizaro86]

I think inatagram and social media in general is a huge tailwind for the leisure travel industry.

[Dynamic]

https://sullimarcapital.group/2019/04/20/airlines-grounded-or-taking-off/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

The above is an interesting dive into the rationale behind US airline investments since around 2013 when the latest consolidation was approved, with quite a good deal of applicability to Berkshire's investments into the big four.

 

Now, Barron's has an article along the same lines too. https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-right-way-to-value-delta-united-and-other-airline-stocks-51555956488?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/YDJpuWGExp

[DTEJD1997]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/business/airlines-climate-change-emissions/index.html

 

I wonder how Buffett has priced in the risk of climate change and incoming crazy politicians such as AOC into his relatively important airline investments?

 

I sense that there will be a strong movement to demonize air travelling. Could this lead people to travel less?

 

For example, corporations have used 911 and corresponding higher fares and travel time to encourage less air travel and greater use of conference calls.

 

My experience is that corporations slowed down air travel for a while then, when the economy got better, they pretty much returned to same or higher level.

 

Could it be different this time around? What about leisure travel?

 

Cardboard

 

If AOC and the green new deal get any serious traction, then it will be more than just air travel that suffers.

 

I also don't think it will be just air travel that suffers by itself.  Other industries will also be tremendously affected, cars, trucks, food, shipping, power & energy, oil, plastics, mining, financials, utilities.  I am sure I've left a lot off the list.

 

AOC is starting to get some opposition and people are upset that she is not representing her district.  Hopefully, she will be gone soon.