Nell-e Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I'm starting this thread so people can chime in and highlight industry risk. I'll start off with a couple of industries. 1) The obvious one is brick and mortar retailers who serve the middle class. Still too many malls. Not sure about high-end retailers. 2) I think the US auto industry is over-earning because it's had massive tailwinds. Peak sales volume over the last couple of years (pent-up demand from GFC). Last year, the hurricanes helped. Average sales prices likely to fall. Low interest rates have helped customers to pay for price increases. Automakers offering more incentives. Recovery of housing prices. Low gas prices. My understanding is a lot of cars are coming off lease so the inventory of used cars will rise. As a result, used car prices are expected to fall. Interested to hear what other industries COBF members think are currently over-earning because of cyclical tailwinds or one-time occurences (i.e. the freight car industry during the fracking boom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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