TIME TO HIBERNATE FIRST POST

[Cigarbutt]

SharperDingaan,

Something relevant to add here vs O+G. Interesting comment about cycles. I have kept a part of my portfolio in expect/hope for a short term return towards IV with potential catalysts in cyclical industries. Exposure has varied vs opportunities. Getting better at it but, overall,  prefer long term compounders (more relaxing). Looking forward to discuss future distressed opportunities. Anyways. Came to the CDN oil patch late 2015/early 2016.  Many challenged angels. Predators too. Picked one, a fulcrum. Followed, to some extent, your 4 principles. This is almost in the bag now and will be a multi-bagger. Mostly because a confluence of factors (factors that should happen but don’t know exactly when they will occur) manifested themselves at the opportune time. Yes, it is surreal that one can benefit from this. I would tend to drift away from your story however with the exploitation label. During a squeeze, the everyman for himself and the devil take the hindmost philosophy may become the norm for the key players who determine the outcome. Because of human nature this investment could have been a zero. I don't like that. A fair process and constant lookout for the best win win solution should remain essential ingredients even if the starting point is desperate. There may be a lot of dark forces out there. Also, I submit that angels may get recycled from predators but they may not be the same person. Thank you for the insights.

 

[SharperDingaan]

I just used the extremes to highlight the excesses.

Put all these skills in one person - & pretty soon nobody but sociopaths would do business with you.

 

Points are that almost all markets/businesses are cyclical to some degree, and each stage of the cycle will have its own dynamics. If you understand those dynamics, and are flexible in your approach; it can serve you very well.

 

Welcome to the board! 

 

SD