Mike Burry's 13F Revisited

[CorpRaider]

I've been watching COTY for a while and I mentioned it here a couple of times in other threads. 

 

I think Bart Becht (look into him, former Reckit Benseker wunderkind, Billionaire German family sponsors this thing same people behind the JAB Holdings coffee roll-up) guided to like a $1.9 billion operating earnings post closing, but they just kind of tanked it with a -10% revenue number in the most recent quarter for the legacy bidness, blaming it (kind of lamely imop) on lack of focus on operating the existing business versus handling the acquisition.

 

I don't think people have been dumping it like a normal split-off.  I mean maybe it was but the offer was waaay oversubscribed and it was a split-off tender (it was down a lot before on apparent arbitraging)...I was watching it like a hawk.  I need to drill down more if Burry is long.  I was waiting to buy some before creating a thread to track it.  Then again he could be the one dumping it following the quarter.  I figure they will likely have some more shitty quarters here as the integrate and new CEO takes over so no hurry and not quite cheap enough yet.

[rogermunibond]

The industry is ripe for consolidation and has great economics.  EL and LO are fantastic businesses.

 

The earnings call was weird.  They kept asserting over and over that they are confident in their $1.53 adj earnings guidance for 2020.  Analysts kept at them.

 

FY17 is transition.  Back half look for growth.  We shall see.

[Graham Osborn]

Latest 13F.

 

http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=sa

 

Portfolio shrinks to just $35M and now Burry has gone long Twinkies. His largest holding (COTY) makes no sense to me whatsoever on a traditional valuation metric.

 

My neither.  And I just shorted HCA.  Should have shorted CYH but I had refrigerator blindness on that one.  If this portfolio is representative of what he is doing in aggregate, his investment philosophy seems to have departed from the kind of conservatism he championed in the early and pre-Scion days.  But if so, he wouldn't be the only one - DVA which is a major BRK holding is thematically similar to DVA.  There is something about being in a depression that causes great investment minds to make serious mistakes - Graham buying stocks on margin in the early Depression being a prime example.

[CorpRaider]

The industry is ripe for consolidation and has great economics.  EL and LO are fantastic businesses.

 

The earnings call was weird.  They kept asserting over and over that they are confident in their $1.53 adj earnings guidance for 2020.  Analysts kept at them.

 

FY17 is transition.  Back half look for growth.  We shall see.

 

Agree.  Could see some/a lot of hiccups between now and then.  This is a Yuge undertaking.  He was already talking about using the cash flow for further consolidation.

[Guest]

anyone have any idea what his minimums are?

[LongTermView]

anyone have any idea what his minimums are?

 

Not sure.  They're closed to new investors, right? 

 

His 2015 q4 13F showed $79.9 million but his 2016 q3 filing shows just $35.4 million so apparently we're now missing more positions.  Maybe foreign stocks and/or shorts?