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Posted

i typically spend some time at the end of the year looking at stocks that have gotten smoked over the last year and have a share holder base where a bunch of the top holders are relatively new to the name and thus incentivized to take the tax hit at the short term rate.

 

i haven't come up with much all that interesting yet, although i think RYAM might fit the bill.  recent spin and basically everyone who has bought it all year is underwater... more importantly i'm sure alot of those people did it without doing much work b/c the headline spin dynamics were so attractive (spun out of a reit so reit dedicated guys have to sell, CEO went with the spin-co etc etc).

 

i'm aware that people have started to question the company's staying power in the face of increased competition and capacity etc etc.  i really don't have a great handle on that, but i imagine that the very smart folks at Fairfax and Abrams Capital do have a great handle on that.

 

seems like this is a stock that will get killed into year end b/c just about everyone that owns it is incentivized to sell for non-economic reasons, but stocks like this can pop quite a bit in the early part of the new year.

 

any other names on your radar that are worth looking at b/c of non-economic tax motivated selling?

Posted

i typically spend some time at the end of the year looking at stocks that have gotten smoked over the last year and have a share holder base where a bunch of the top holders are relatively new to the name and thus incentivized to take the tax hit at the short term rate.

 

i haven't come up with much all that interesting yet, although i think RYAM might fit the bill.  recent spin and basically everyone who has bought it all year is underwater... more importantly i'm sure alot of those people did it without doing much work b/c the headline spin dynamics were so attractive (spun out of a reit so reit dedicated guys have to sell, CEO went with the spin-co etc etc).

 

i'm aware that people have started to question the company's staying power in the face of increased competition and capacity etc etc.  i really don't have a great handle on that, but i imagine that the very smart folks at Fairfax and Abrams Capital do have a great handle on that.

 

seems like this is a stock that will get killed into year end b/c just about everyone that owns it is incentivized to sell for non-economic reasons, but stocks like this can pop quite a bit in the early part of the new year.

 

any other names on your radar that are worth looking at b/c of non-economic tax motivated selling?

PWE is one. A lot of other oil/gas.

XCO as well.

Posted

IBM is probably a tax loss candidate ( and widely held), now trades at 9 times earnings, and has a fairly smart fellow who owns $11B worth of it. But maybe he is selling to pick up some losses for the year? ;)

 

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