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Morningstar US Stock Fund Managers of the Year Today


jtvalue
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I'd be curious to hear the board's thoughts on this?  I went back and looked at 7 Morningstar US Stock Fund Managers of the year and their subsequent results are not inspiring.  Below I present their annualized +/- vs. S&P 500 for 1, 3, 5, and 10 year and a link to their record.

 

What does this say about the merits of active stockpicking or the mutual fund industry in general?     

 

2012: Mairs Power & Growth MPGFX -759 bps, +90, +46, +69

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=MPGFX

 

2011: Artisan Value ARTLX -953 bps, -517, -231, N/A

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=ARTLX

 

2010: Sequoia SEQUX -1,071 bps, -167, +68, +102

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=SEQUX

 

2009: Fairholme FAIRX -2,076 bps, -279 , -607, +105

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FAIRX

 

2008: Royce Special Equity RSIEX -1,976 bps, -714, -407, +17 bps 

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=RSEIX

 

2007: Fidelity Contrafund FCNTX -230 bps, -125, -4, +225

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FCNTX

 

2006: Longleaf Partners LLPFX -781 bps, -253 bps, -215 bps, -179 bps

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=LLPFX

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I'd be curious to hear the board's thoughts on this?  I went back and looked at 7 Morningstar US Stock Fund Managers of the year and their subsequent results are not inspiring.  Below I present their annualized +/- vs. S&P 500 for 1, 3, 5, and 10 year and a link to their record.

 

What does this say about the merits of active stockpicking or the mutual fund industry in general?     

 

2012: Mairs Power & Growth MPGFX -759 bps, +90, +46, +69

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=MPGFX

 

2011: Artisan Value ARTLX -953 bps, -517, -231, N/A

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=ARTLX

 

2010: Sequoia SEQUX -1,071 bps, -167, +68, +102

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=SEQUX

 

2009: Fairholme FAIRX -2,076 bps, -279 , -607, +105

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FAIRX

 

2008: Royce Special Equity RSIEX -1,976 bps, -714, -407, +17 bps 

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=RSEIX

 

2007: Fidelity Contrafund FCNTX -230 bps, -125, -4, +225

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=FCNTX

 

2006: Longleaf Partners LLPFX -781 bps, -253 bps, -215 bps, -179 bps

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=LLPFX

 

Thanks, great table.

 

Shows you that this award is similar to the 5 star rating.

 

Not predictive about good future returns.

 

Maybe they get the award after their strategy has been popular and then mean reverts.

 

Money weighted results usually look even worse.

 

;)

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Cleaning out some files today and came across a couple of power point slides from Dimensional Fund Advisors both entitled: Do Winners Keep Winning? One slide looks at equity funds that outperform over 3-, 5-, and 7-year periods with subsequent performance from 2010-2012. For instance, from 2003-2009, 597 funds outperformed their respective benchmark. Of those 597 funds, only 23.6% outperformed their benchmark from 2010-2012. Just 23.6%-26.4% of the "winning" funds continued to outperform. The other slide looks at fixed income funds. 43.2%-52.1% of "winning" funds continue to outperform.

 

I think Peter 1234 has it. M* is selecting it's award winners from a pool of "winners" defined by good 1-, 3-, and 5-year performance. Mean reversion happens. Also asset bloat as a result of publicity/marketing can really affect how a manager runs money and shrink the opportunity set. 

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