Mohnish Pabrai (Dalal Street) 13F HR

[AzCactus]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

[OracleofCarolina]

Maybe decided to reduce BAC and C since he has been buying Indian banks

[vertek]

@tombgrt - My understanding, is that this new investment allocation evolved from his experience in 2008/2009.  Having cash at the bottom of the market would've allowed him to take greater advantage of dislocations, and he wants to preserve that optionality.  It also reminds me of a point that Klarman made, which is that not only do you have compare attractiveness across different investment options, but also across different investment times, (i.e. investment opportunities yet to come).  Let me know if that makes sense, or if I'm incorrect.

 

-vertek

[jawn619]

Munger's heirs might not be as talented investors as Pabrai.

 

 

Can someone explain this better:

 

How do you think about position sizing and holding cash today,

and has this changed since you wrote “The Dhando Investor”?

I start by deciding the biggest position I’m willing to take, which is

typically 10% of assets. Then for the first 75% of my investments I’ll

look for things that can double (2x) within 2-3 years, i.e. things that

are 50 cents on the dollar. Then for the next 10% or so I’ll look for

3x opportunities, and the next 5% in 4x and then the next 5% is 5x

and the final 5% has to be more than 5x. You will naturally get to the

point where you are holding lots of cash because it’s hard to find

opportunities that will become 3x or greater. That’s how I

 

Why isn't he simply trying to be buy the best value (defined as expected risk adjusted returns) regardless of the cash he has left? He seems to imply that higher potential returns correlate with higher risk while in practice it can often be the other way around. (A bit in the same league as saying that volatility equals risk, while it's often more an indicator of opportunity that can provide return.) I'm probably misreading what he meant though.

 

well you can't be sure that your estimated "risk adjusted returns" are accurate. Pabrai tried something along the lines of Kelly criterion, the theoretical optimal bet sizing, but in real life there is a lot of uncertainty and I think his current strategy is not as fragile as Kelly or the method you're suggesting. 

[Jurgis]

Munger's heirs might not be as talented investors as Pabrai.

 

Maybe. But I wonder if their results might not be better. ;)

[rishig]

Munger's heirs might not be as talented investors as Pabrai.

 

 

Can someone explain this better:

 

How do you think about position sizing and holding cash today,

and has this changed since you wrote “The Dhando Investor”?

I start by deciding the biggest position I’m willing to take, which is

typically 10% of assets. Then for the first 75% of my investments I’ll

look for things that can double (2x) within 2-3 years, i.e. things that

are 50 cents on the dollar. Then for the next 10% or so I’ll look for

3x opportunities, and the next 5% in 4x and then the next 5% is 5x

and the final 5% has to be more than 5x. You will naturally get to the

point where you are holding lots of cash because it’s hard to find

opportunities that will become 3x or greater. That’s how I

 

Why isn't he simply trying to be buy the best value (defined as expected risk adjusted returns) regardless of the cash he has left? He seems to imply that higher potential returns correlate with higher risk while in practice it can often be the other way around. (A bit in the same league as saying that volatility equals risk, while it's often more an indicator of opportunity that can provide return.) I'm probably misreading what he meant though.

 

well you can't be sure that your estimated "risk adjusted returns" are accurate. Pabrai tried something along the lines of Kelly criterion, the theoretical optimal bet sizing, but in real life there is a lot of uncertainty and I think his current strategy is not as fragile as Kelly or the method you're suggesting.

 

On this topic, I would point you to Joel Steven's (on the board @racemize) very thoughtful article on "Why Hold Cash?":

https://www.dropbox.com/s/96hwafdp5egf460/2014-15%20Why%20Hold%20Cash.pdf?dl=0

[CorpRaider]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

 

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

[Guest notorious546]

http://rationalangle.blogspot.com/2007/09/pabrai-funds-meeting.html

 

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/09/28/the-buffett-disciple-descends-onchicago.

aspx

 

[jawn619]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

 

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

 

He has mentioned that ZINC is his first original idea, and FCAU was from a Columbia student's presentation.

[randomep]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

 

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

 

He has mentioned that ZINC is his first original idea, and FCAU was from a Columbia student's presentation.

 

So you are saying he is cloning Columbia students?

 

So I also heard on this thread he goes into positions where he expects 2x 3x gains; so how does Brk BAC fit? he seriously expected Brk to triple?

 

Pabrai is so full of contradictions I wonder how anyone can follow what he says.....

 

I don't know his results last year or this year... but it can't be good, GM has gone nowhere and Horeshead....well that's a disaster.....

 

 

[cubsfan]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

 

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

 

He has mentioned that ZINC is his first original idea, and FCAU was from a Columbia student's presentation.

 

So you are saying he is cloning Columbia students?

 

So I also heard on this thread he goes into positions where he expects 2x 3x gains; so how does Brk BAC fit? he seriously expected Brk to triple?

 

Pabrai is so full of contradictions I wonder how anyone can follow what he says.....

 

I don't know his results last year or this year... but it can't be good, GM has gone nowhere and Horeshead....well that's a disaster.....

 

He paid $5-6 for BAC, so looks like a 3X. Most of his GM common was  below $20 before he switched to the warrants, so nothing wrong with 50% gain in 3 years. He still may get his 2-3X.

[tylerdurden]

Pabrai added tons of Posco now about 13% of assets as well as WL Ross Holdings which now are about 4% of assets while substantially reducing his Citigroup position.  Additionally, he completed sold his Berkshire and BAC positions. 

 

Link Below:

http://www.dataroma.com/m/m_activity.php?m=PI&typ=a

 

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

 

He has mentioned that ZINC is his first original idea, and FCAU was from a Columbia student's presentation.

 

So you are saying he is cloning Columbia students?

 

So I also heard on this thread he goes into positions where he expects 2x 3x gains; so how does Brk BAC fit? he seriously expected Brk to triple?

 

Pabrai is so full of contradictions I wonder how anyone can follow what he says.....

 

I don't know his results last year or this year... but it can't be good, GM has gone nowhere and Horeshead....well that's a disaster.....

 

He paid $5-6 for BAC, so looks like a 3X. Most of his GM common was  below $20 before he switched to the warrants, so nothing wrong with 50% gain in 3 years. He still may get his 2-3X.

 

Pabrai held very little Berkshire just to park some cash rather than expecting 2x-3x from those shares. He thinks he can do better so I wouldn't think he'd invest any significant amount in Berkshire. I also think he performed well with BAC and relatively with GM. (GM is nothing near its earnings potential yet.) Fiat and Google so far are some of the winners obviously but he will have to wait patiently with names ZINC and Posco at this point of course. Not sure whether all of his investors have the same mindset for being patient enough. I assume they are. Berkowitz's investors were not when he was going through a rough patch with AIG and BAC several years ago.

 

Anyways, he'd do well in the long run probably but I honestly think he and Guy Spier are getting bored just waiting patiently for their shares to show their real potential so they started doing all these talks, books etc. etc. It is a real good thing for us to hear what they have to say of course but If you talk more frequently there is more room for errors, inconsistencies etc. That's why we see them acting a little bit inconsistent sometimes I guess. It's human nature probably...

 

[OracleofCarolina]

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1549575/000154957515000007/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

 

the latest, no real changes other no more Citigroup, looks like all the ZINC shares were added recently so don't show up. He added about 1.8 million shares since

[Guest notorious546]

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/356706/six-advantages-of-the-stock-market-according-to-mohnish-pabrai

 

[Guest notorious546]

doesn't look to be any major changes to his portfolio from end of Q2.

 

non-material sales of FCAU offset by minor additions to GM. rest look unchanged to me.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1549575/000154957515000010/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml

[hardincap]

Why does zinc show as unchanged? He added in July

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1385544/000154692715000212/xslF345X03/pabraizincform4080215.xml

 

Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned Following Reported Transaction 7,890,301 shares

[AzCactus]

Does anyone have any insights into why Mohnish didn't add more Horeshead in the third quarter?  I mean if he liked the stock at $8, you would think he would love it at 30% of that price?  It just doesn't make sense to me.  He bought at $8 thinking it was worth at least $16-$20 which would be a 2-2.5X. At around $3 This becomes a 5-7X.  Am I missing something perfectly obvious?

[marazul]

The company has experienced operational issued. Taking into account the amount of debt, their is a real possibility of this being a 0. I guess the situation has changed since he made the initial investment.

[OracleofCarolina]

Does anyone have any insights into why Mohnish didn't add more Horeshead in the third quarter?  I mean if he liked the stock at $8, you would think he would love it at 30% of that price?  It just doesn't make sense to me.  He bought at $8 thinking it was worth at least $16-$20 which would be a 2-2.5X. At around $3 This becomes a 5-7X.  Am I missing something perfectly obvious?

 

I am confused too because he was buying http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getowner&CIK=0001549575

He was buying in July and September but this does not seem to be reflected on the 13F. Anyone have any insight on why this looks this way??

[AzCactus]

has anyone been able to locate the 13f for arlington for 9/30

[kab60]

It's not out

[AzCactus]

Oh I thought today was the deadline, my mistake.

[abitofvalue]

Does anyone have any insights into why Mohnish didn't add more Horeshead in the third quarter?  I mean if he liked the stock at $8, you would think he would love it at 30% of that price?  It just doesn't make sense to me.  He bought at $8 thinking it was worth at least $16-$20 which would be a 2-2.5X. At around $3 This becomes a 5-7X.  Am I missing something perfectly obvious?

 

I am confused too because he was buying http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-disp?action=getowner&CIK=0001549575

He was buying in July and September but this does not seem to be reflected on the 13F. Anyone have any insight on why this looks this way??

 

My guess is just different reporting entities..  The Form 4 includes all shares controlled by Pabrai (i.e. includes the insurance sub Dhandho holdings, and other accrs).  The 13F includes only Dalal Street.

 

 

[mani2304]

I am kind of curious his stake in zinc is steady for last 8 quarters(shares he hold) but the reported price is getting changed in dataroma to the  current market price , I still didn't understand that part.

[kab60]

Oh I thought today was the deadline, my mistake.

It's up. Sold down BAC, added big to Brk, Cimpress, MSC and Dnow