War in Ukraine?

[Zorrofan]

The Obama administration thinks that they can ensure world peace by simply sharing smiles and giving hand shakes. That is admirable, but as we have seen now a few times, simply does not work in this paranoid and selfish world. Sanctions also don't work very well if we are to look at history. They caused the rise of Hitler and Japan was under sanctions right before its surprise attack on Pearl Harbour.

 

 

I would note that they "shook Osama's hand" right in the middle of Pakistan, where the prior administration feared to tread.  Wake me when the Russians put nukes in Cuba again or invade Mexico.  I'm more interested in completing the evisceration of the terrorists in waziristan.  If the Euros have a problem with what Putin is doing in Ukraine, we have lots of natural resources and arms we can sell to support our allies.

 

 

Then unfortunately you are missing the big picture.  Ukraine is a litmus test for the US & Europe. The US, Europe and Russia signed a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders.  If nothing is done then friends and foes alike will look on US treaties as meaningless.  If you are Israel,  Saudi Arabia, South Korea etc etc. you have to feel a lot less safer if the US just stands around doing nothing. How safe will Latvia, Estonia or even Poland be if Putin gets away with seizing Ukraine? How about China?  Are they calculating the cost of invading Taiwan or of seizing oil rich areas in the South China Sea?  In 1938 the West cut a deal with Hitler to avoid war, in the long run the cost was much higher than if they had acted sooner.  The US may avoid short-term pain now, but the longer term implications may prove to have farther reaching implications than people realize.

 

Just my $0.02

cheers

Zorro

 

[CorpRaider]

I take your point about reduced influence but am tempted to say, "perish the thought that we should lose all of our great influence over the Israelis, Palestinians and Saudis (haha)."  Well, in fairness, we have been able to (just barely) keep Israel (and North Korea) from executing a unilateral strike, starting (another) regional war, but we've been unable to prevent them from making public threats of same (which is always helpful).  Seems like our influence is about equal with both of those countries.  Oh well, at least the western hemisphere doesnt need the oil any more.  Fortress America and whatnot. 

 

The Russians arguably violated the treaty, but I've not heard many (if any) assert that an actual valid referendom on joining Russia would fail to pass by a comfortable margin.  If you're Poland and you're a member of NATO, who is actually contributing something to your own defense, you've done as well as you can to secure yourself it seems to me.  South Korea should just continue to buy more joint strike fighters and they will be ok.  Even better, maybe they shouldn't be so choosy and should take some boeing product next time as well instread of trying to nickel and dime LMT via multiple rounds of bidding.  Perhaps jets and munitions in exchange for all the shipping containers stuffed with Hyundai and LG products will make an impact on the trade imbalances created by a quarter century of abusive trade laws and perpetually, artificially deflated currencies.  To me, the EU has to take the lead on this, their backyard and they actually have substantial enough trade ties with Russia to make an impact.

[frommi]

I was obviously wrong here, there are forces that want a war. It looks like some big players in the US (and probably even russia) have a high interest in a destabilized europe where everbody needs more weapons. Its really sad to realize that the weapon industry has such a massive influence on the politicians.

[txitxo]

This is war, in all but name.  Kiev is in a catch-22. To recover the Eastern Ukrainian cities, they need a full scale military operation, with tanks, helicopters. The pro-russian forces have military training (advantages of universal conscription) and heavy assistance from Russian spetznaz. Even if they could be expelled militarily (which is doubtful) it would mean many civilian casualties and justify a Russian invasion. But if the Kiev government keeps muddling through, they will lose more cities and eventually risk a coup from the right-wing radicals, what given their pro-nazi history would also trigger a Russian invasion.

 

  So far the US sanctions are mosquito bites, what Putin really fears are sanctions from the EU, i.e. Germany. He has a very good connection with Merkel, they both shared many years in Eastern Germany, Putin is fluent in German, Merkel is fluent in Russian. All German business leaders and even retired politicians as Schroeder or Kohl are heavily invested in good relationships with Russia, EU sanctions would harm the EU (specially Germany) as much as they would harm Russia, so it seems that Putin is just making sure his case is defensible in front of the German public opinion if he has to cross the border. All the Ukrainian army units in fighting condition seem to be concentrated around Slaviansk (instead of defending Kiev), and they would be easily cut off by Russian forces coming south from Kharkov and north from Crimea. Militarily, it would be a walk in the park for Russia.

 

 

[Guest hellsten]

Putin has been busy lately… Banned the word "fracking" one day, and now he wants protection money from credit card companies:

 

Putin Bans the F-Word From Movies and Plays

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-bans-the-f-word-from-movies-and-plays/499530.html

 

Putin Passes Law Requiring $3.8Bln Security Payments From Visa, MasterCard

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-passes-law-requiring-38bln-security-payments-from-visa-mastercard/499532.html

 

Maybe he hit his head while trying some new bare-chested activity?

[txitxo]

Putin has been busy lately… Banned the word "fracking" one day, and now he wants protection money from credit card companies:

 

Putin Bans the F-Word From Movies and Plays

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-bans-the-f-word-from-movies-and-plays/499530.html

 

Putin Passes Law Requiring $3.8Bln Security Payments From Visa, MasterCard

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-passes-law-requiring-38bln-security-payments-from-visa-mastercard/499532.html

 

Maybe he hit his head while trying some new bare-chested activity?

 

Russian authorities have been trying to suppress "mat" for centuries, with very little success.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mat_(Russian_profanity)

 

[Guest wellmont]

the market has come to terms with Crimea = gone and Eastern Ukraine = gone. it would get concerned if it goes beyond that.

[PatientCheetah]

the market has come to terms with Crimea = gone and Eastern Ukraine = gone. it would get concerned if it goes beyond that.

 

Yeah, Russian stocks are stabilizing. 

[jay21]

What's the probability of extremists/Ukrainians damaging Russian gas pipelines?  If it's meaningful, what effect would this have?

[txitxo]

the market has come to terms with Crimea = gone and Eastern Ukraine = gone. it would get concerned if it goes beyond that.

 

I don't think it will go anywhere, even if the Russian troops cross the border in force. The French are selling *warships* to the Russians

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-12/france-rejects-blocking-mistral-warship-sale-to-russia.html

 

and the US industrial-military complex is fighting tooth and nail to keep using Russian rocket engines:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/boeing-lockheed-wins-end-to-ban-on-buying-russian-rocket-engines.html.

 

Sanctions are just a big farce. The Ukrainians are on their own.

[Uccmal]

What's the probability of extremists/Ukrainians damaging Russian gas pipelines?  If it's meaningful, what effect would this have?

 

Take a look at Nigeria.  I think it is very possible and likely pretty damn easy.  This has to be figuring into the plans of each side. 

[PatientCheetah]

the market has come to terms with Crimea = gone and Eastern Ukraine = gone. it would get concerned if it goes beyond that.

 

I don't think it will go anywhere, even if the Russian troops cross the border in force. The French are selling *warships* to the Russians

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-12/france-rejects-blocking-mistral-warship-sale-to-russia.html

 

and the US industrial-military complex is fighting tooth and nail to keep using Russian rocket engines:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/boeing-lockheed-wins-end-to-ban-on-buying-russian-rocket-engines.html.

 

Sanctions are just a big farce. The Ukrainians are on their own.

 

Russian ADRs also show that the buysides don't care about Ukraine anymore.

[jouni1]

demand for foreign currency in russia is at 2009 levels. these are march numbers.

 

it's gonna hit the fan big time if the rouble gets properly devalued.

[txitxo]

 

  the US industrial-military complex is fighting tooth and nail to keep using Russian rocket engines:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/boeing-lockheed-wins-end-to-ban-on-buying-russian-rocket-engines.html.

 

And now, Americans cannot use these rockets anymore because of Russian sanctions...

 

http://rt.com/news/158680-russia-usa-rocket-gps/

[investor-man]

Bah, now the Russians are firing artillery from Ukrainian soil

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/russia-moves-artillery-units-into-ukraine-nato-says.html

[fenris]

In my mind Russia has two options: address this now, while Ukraine is still a mess, or fight a covert proxy war with NATO with the aim of destabilizing Ukraine and getting it back into the Russian sphere of influence. The latter seems risky and if it proves unsuccessful it may still lead to a full scale military operation at a later time.

:-X ..

 

And this is exactly what happened (to date). Russia chose the 'Special War' first but now it is intervening directly.