shalab Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 If anyone gets "macro", it is Ray and his team (acknowledged by Paul Volcker as being better than the Fed before the crisis) - here he is on the U.S economy. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-06/charlie-rose-talks-to-bridgewaters-ray-dalio?campaign_id=yhoo And how does the economic picture in the U.S. look to you now? The U.S. economy is in the middle of a short-term debt cycle. It’s in one of those periods when we would think of them as fairly boring years. If I said to you, “What were 2004 to 2006 like?” You don’t remember. They don’t stick out. They didn’t have tight monetary policies. They didn’t have loose monetary policies. Now, short-term interest-rate return is about 1 percent. The expected return on bonds is about 3 percent. Equities at about 4 percent. It’s in the middle of a business cycle within a very long-term debt cycle. The high level of the debt cycle means it has a sensitivity to interest rates. A tightening that’s too fast would cause the economy to go into a difficult situation. That’s where the U.S. is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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