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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Thanks "When we bought HD bonds at 15 we should have bought the stock, but that will always be the case." Is this a typo or did Buffett really buy HD bonds? And did they really trade down to 15?
  2. Separate topic - how/where did you run into him? Did he talk about anything else?
  3. After reading this one and Einhorn's book, you have to wonder how much it pays to be publicly shorting a stock. IMO, its much less painful do the research and wait to short into an decline. In hindsight I'd say that's easy but you have to be good at timing and forecasting macro factors, both of which are nearly impossible. And then you may not get the benefit of buying so cheaply.
  4. How did you like it? It certainly made me appreciate how much work Ackman puts into his ideas... I thought it was great. I agree that you appreciate how much work he put it's in. I think he read about 150,000 pages of material for this trade. But you also get to appreciate the conviction, perseverance, and courage it takes to pull something like this off.
  5. Just finished Confidence Game, about Bill Ackman's MBIA short.
  6. I vote Palantir for "Most disturbing profile picture." Muscleman has my vote
  7. Asking questions about mistakes (or perceived mistakes) does not equal complaining. Asking a great investor questions about investing, by definition usually means that you are not as good of an investor as he is. That's the whole point of a Q&A. Putting someone down who has valid questions, just because they are about mistakes, ironically goes against much of what Buffett has preached in regards to investing, about always thinking about the downside, etc. He himself says that he wants tough questions, rather than easy ones. As a value investor he recognizes the importance of understanding your past mistakes rather than being blind to them. What is also ironic about this whole conversation is that Buffett has specifically stated that he doesn't give special treatment to large shareholders, and he wants to cater to the small ones just as much as he does to the large ones. Whether or not an investor owns 100 shares, 10 million shares, or 1 share, matters to many CEOs, but not Buffett.
  8. There you go - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aisl_3YDx6vMdGZ2QnloNDJUNmlvS2lVcXFkdDA2RFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0 Thanks Siddharth!
  9. Thanks for posting. There was a thread on here some time ago with a Google spreadsheet listing all the good shareholder/investor letters. Can anyone share the link to that spreadsheet if they have it? Thanks
  10. Thanks for all the replies, everyone. I would think industry analysis, and competitor knowledge matters. Remember Buffett bought Iscar after reading a page and half letter, and meeting with the CEO for like half an hour? I think it is fair to say that he had spent many hours prior to this over the course of his lifetime researching the industry, or suppliers, or customers, or competitors. So by the time he saw the deal he had already done his homework, without even knowing about this company. But then again he did say he got the letter from a "company he never heard of". That wouldn't make much sense if he knew the industry so well.
  11. Ted Weschler said that he spends a minimum of 500 hours researching a stock before investing in it. If he spends 10 hours/day only on one idea, this is a minimum of 50 days of research. How much time do you spend? This doesn't count research you do after you have already invested. I must confess that I probably spend only 10-20 hours before taking the plunge. Of course, this should also include time you've spent indirectly on an idea. For example, if you've spent 500 hours on BAC, many of those hours should go towards C as well. In this way, Buffett has probably accumulated tens of thousands of hours on multiple industries and companies.
  12. I just called them today and they said they haven't sent them out yet.
  13. You can show your brokerage statement for proof that you own the shares. And you can probably get the proxy through your broker, which includes a post card that you can print out and send in to receive your materials. You should probably do that soon though.
  14. Gangtstas. ;) Giving clients great performance and very reasonable fees. I wish more folks were like that. Do you happen to know what the fees are? Thanks
  15. Maybe a lawyer can answer this, but what happens if shareholders win the case but the companies are put into wind down? Do shareholders still have a claim on past taken profits? Or only future ones?
  16. Anyone find it interesting that he had a cherry coke and a classic coke with him on the show? I thought he only drinks cherry.
  17. Personally I like Kernan's presence because he makes for a great comic relief.
  18. If the bill passes and the firms are placed into wind down, but Fairholme and Perry still win the suit, can money that the government has taken up until the point of the conclusion of the case be reversed and given back to shareholders? If so then the preferreds can still be made whole with a wind down, right?
  19. Thanks for all your responses. Yes I just began using the Word function and am really liking it.
  20. Wasn't the European debt crisis supposed to cause serious problems for U.S. markets, but didn't? Of course this is only one out of a myriad variables, but I'm just trying to point out, with my limited knowledge, that macro is problems don't necessarily cause trouble for stocks. On the other hand, valuations are significantly higher now than they were a few years ago, so maybe the market will correct regardless of Chinese issues.
  21. I used to get lost reading annual reports. But now I'm very comfortable reading them cover to cover. My question is that how do you compare an AR from one year to the one in the previous year? What is a good way to look for subtle or significant changes? Or is there no better way to do it then reading cover to cover, every single year? I tried playing around with MS Word's tracking software, and it seems decent. But I just wanted to get the opinion of other board members.
  22. Just a thought, but for a company like lukoil which has American shareholders but also American operations (and around the globe), wouldn't there be consequences for Putin if he decides to take shareholder money? American authorities could cause problems for their American operations for example. Given that they operate (and have shareholders) all over the world I would think that Putin would think twice before treating them as his piggy bank.
  23. ;D You've got to be kidding me, man. What, you think the thieves stole the BTC and then just retired them, like they were buying back stock? They stole the BTC and then sold them back on the open market for MONEY, because that's the point of stealing them. The supply doesn't change. This has already happened and is therefore already price in. The people needing to replace their lost coins however, is not yet priced in. How can you assume that? There is no "need" to replace their coins. Secondly, why would they "want" to replace their coins given what happened here? And third, how do you know they will have the funds to do so? Let's say they bought the coins for $10 or $100 a piece. How can you just assume they will spend $700 to replace all their coins. And besides, even if you were to argue that this is a good value investment, this point you are making is touting a momentum or volume trade. Nothing to do with the "intrinsic value" of the bitcoin.
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