nkp007
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Posts posted by nkp007
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Berkshire Hathaway has a lot of unique things collectively converging and I am expecting it to break out in a major way.Berkshire seems like the biggest no-brainer and with minimal risk...
Yep.
My first post in years.
Berkshire makes a lot of sense here for many reasons. I posted some on twitter at
Not getting style points for this one but:
Big Berkshire $BRKA $BRKB fan over next few years
1) Valuation has gone nowhere for past three years
2) Within buyback range (repurchasing ~7%+ of company annually) + no share issuances!
3) earnings only ~15% down, coiled for 2021
4) at current valuation, you get huge part of biz for free
5) insurance is in a hard (prices up) market
6) 1.2x BV is historical low end of the range
speculative:
7) asset-based cash flowing biz could re-rate higher if inflation fears arise
8 ) buffett optionality (stock bounce if he passes away RIP) as discussion centers on increased buybacks, distributions, or spinoffs
9) $550B as a market cap doesn't seem that high
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[move]Vanguard Money Market Funds
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX - 2.35%
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMMXX - 2.45%[/move]
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100% needs to be hidden by default / shut down. It's the first thing new members / public visitors see on the site. It's literally three or four jobless dudes who live in their basement and have too much time on their hands trying to trigger a group of value investors. It's sad and I wouldn't care but it likely affects the type of members we get here.
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It essentially splits your order in 100-share chunks so you don't move the market price.
For larger, more liquid names you can put the order in as limit and you'll likely get the fill quick.
For adaptive, if the stock gaps up or gaps down, you'll be buying throughout the move. Sometimes it's too slow / too smart for its own good if the volume is already there.
Well, I was buying a 2 bn company today. Bid was 29.2 and ask was 29.24. I put in an adaptive limit order at 29.24 but only got 200 shares filled, and price immediately jumped up to 29.28/29.36. I had a similar experience with another stock where the moment I put the order in, the price jumped. I won't think it is coincidence because I was staring at the screen for minutes when I was doing the last round of sanity checks and price was not moving, but the moment I click the confirm button, the bid/ask changes. That's just too unreal to be coincidence.
Sounds like volume is pretty low for that company and you got stuck in the market maker shuffle.
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It essentially splits your order in 100-share chunks so you don't move the market price.
For larger, more liquid names you can put the order in as limit and you'll likely get the fill quick.
For adaptive, if the stock gaps up or gaps down, you'll be buying throughout the move. Sometimes it's too slow / too smart for its own good if the volume is already there.
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~700% for the year. 20% allocation in applications building on blockchain infrastructure knocked it out of the park. Not much alpha from stocks this year (3%).
LOL. Get me some of this.
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Isn't the intrinsic value of profitable American businesses permanently higher with lower tax rates? Like 20% higher?
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Valium.
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I'm thinking they don't buy back anything substantial.
When the equities they love are selling off like crazy (e.g. financials, Apple, other names across the spectrum), I think they're deploying to those stocks or holding on for more cash expecting more opportunities to emerge, especially as liquidity / financing starts to tighten.
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Does a monopoly matter if it's in an area that's totally optional (social media) and not required for day to day life?
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PROFILE ----> ACCOUNT SETTINGS ----> IGNORE BOARD OPTIONS
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I'm all for freedom of speech but it seems like this investing discussion website is being overrun by hostile political conversation and recently it has leaked over into the General Discussion section.
I just mute the political forum so it's invisible to me, but I am concerned that potential/new members see the recent posts section (see attached image) when they first visit the site and either shy way because of the hostile political discourse or get attracted because of the hostile political discourse. Either way, there's definitely some self-selection that is going on that over time will significantly reduce the investment quality of the board.
I'm all for political freedom of speech. So go do it on one of the other million political websites on the internet so it doesn't affect our investment returns you loud-mouthed leeches.
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Check out the Vanguard Federal Money Market and Prime Money Market. The two best in the game.
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More valium.
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Valium.
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Love it. Lots of idea flow. Up to you to select what works for you.
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I also tell my class about spaced study, interleaving topics, focused mode and diffused mode thinking, mindset, self-control and grit, and varying your study location.
I use up too much class time on how to learn, so I have been working on a serious of videos that I hope will be interesting enough that they will watch them and I won’t have to use so much class time talking about how to learn.
You sound like a fantastic professor. This is all stuff I had to learn by trial and error. You're doing them a huge favor.
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Interesting to hear that Tilson is managing money again (via separately managed accounts) for friends and family. Knew he couldn't stay away for too long.
Berkshire seems like a low downside uncertain upside (Tilson says 10% upside) special situation. With the buyback bazooka as a put option around current prices, definitely makes it a protected way to get exposure to US equity markets / companies.
I took a position after they announced the buyback. Huge technical support barring a crash.
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I think the situation concerning the buybacks is quite clear. According to the buyback text from 17th July: till 3rd August happened nothing.
We are clearly under a conservative IV, because we just trade 1.32 x BV. IV shall be around 240 to 275 $ per B share. (See various estimations for the IV; for example Semper Augustus Letter)
For me this means: from Monday on, the buybacks will start. They will end below a market price of 240 $ per B share
Bulks of cash are ready.
The time between 17th July (when the buyback was announced) till 3rd August was the time to load shares, cause the anoucment was more or less without any reasonable market results. During all this time we traded around 1.3 BV.
Agreed. It moved up like what? 4% after the buyback cap was lifted? Not a move at all. Still 10% below the highs.
Maybe there will be a chance to purchase shares ~$200 over the coming weeks. Or maybe the golden opportunity was the past two weeks when Buffett telegraphed what will likely be a massive, potentially accelerated, buyback.
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If Buffett starts buying back shares, I think you'll start to see it in the stock price pretty quickly.
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the short end of the treasury curve spiking over the last year means that the $100B cash stockpile is generating 2% or $2B a year!
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Berkshire earnings going parabolic: 67% increase in operating income. 44% increase in operating income if you take out insurance underwriting profits...
insane growth numbers for a boring, old-school, old-economy company.
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Agreed. 5% is not a brutal run up......
Inside my head, I still have the B share at USD 250 intrinsic value, based on the last three Semper Augustus Letters, plus about ~30 B of discount to the float, based considerations made here on CoBF by rb, not included in the Semper Augustus Letters.
So, pretty brutal run-up today, but still cheap to me.
+1.. not a brutal run up at all given how wide the discount is
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ABDC.
Always be deleting cookies (and not signing in). Also hit escape before page loads fully. You can sneak into some articles this way.
SA does some specific micro-targeting where they have offered me different rates for SA Pro and after I trialed pro earlier this year, they tried to get me to pay like $800 a year for access to regular articles.
They abuse cookies like no other. I would be OK if everyone paid the same amount, but their price discrimination is nuts and seems unfair. I'd be OK paying a certain amount knowing everyone else was paying that amount.
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Brilliant comment. Will go down in history as one of the best on this site.