Green King

Does anyone know if there is a way to find historical price information of acquired companies ? TIA

Sanjeev Thank for the event and for choosing doing what is right instead of easy with your new entity. Cheers

One in five years. So 0.005 to 0.4 5 to 80 Do you have data to back this? I can run some calculations to check, but just want to verify. Nope nothing backing this :) just assuming a market crash is 30% and it happens once in a business cycle and a cycle is around 5 years. This is not my area of expertise. So far i have only brought out of the money calls on under value stocks only. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets The odds are stated from the discussion above and keep in mind you should also have a margin of safety when doing this. So you should have a view of over all valuation. Or maybe Buffett says the market is over prices. :) I think when Taleb is doing this he is buying short dated out of the money options that he believes is undervalued based on his analysis.

One in five years. So 0.005 to 0.4 5 to 80 I have no clue what you meant by this. :) Assuming 1 in 5 years: - 4 years you get a return of your portfolio minus 3% annual fee. - 1 year you get a return of plus ~10% instead of minus 30%. This is actually a good result. :) Which means that I am probably simplifying too much, missing something or calculating it wrong. ;D Your result should be independent of your portfolio. He is simply framing it the way mentioned to sell the idea. When taking it on you are not buying insurance on the portfolio. You are making a bet on the market dropping 30%. Assuming you have not make a mistake on your investments. The drop in market prices should be only be paper losses on the value of your portfolio. Therefore the returns should be calculated as return on premium invested.

One in five years. So 0.005 to 0.4 5 to 80

The second edition of Security Analysis is the most clear and concise piece of literature i have read in my life. Reading it give me feelings of sadness, realizing i might never be able to write so clearly about investing or any topic. Ideas i have been thinking about for month or years is just right there in a few lines or a paragraph. The clearness of Ben Graham's mind is something on another level. :)

+1 +1

RIP Irving Kahn his life showed me how anything can be accomplished over time with enough dedication and focus.

Really...this is what you have to worry about? Mistake of all mistakes!? I crack up every time I hear people second guess Prem. He's not going to be right on everything, and yes they will f**k up royally on some things from time to time, but he will still be right on enough things to outperform almost all of his peers over the long-term...due to the amount of asset/equity leverage they utilize and their pure Ben Graham investing framework. What percentage of their $30B portfolio is in SD? Forget them buying at $8 down...even if they totally screwed up the valuation and understanding of the business, and then they started buying at $20 down...what is the total percentage of the $30B they put into SD...at cost, not today's valuation. They would have had to put in at least $1B at cost into SD to even begin to think it would seriously hurt shareholder equity long-term if it went to zero. I would think their total cost is probably around $400M...if that. And the assumption is that the other $24.6B of their $25B+ investment portfolio is sitting idle doing nothing. Once you get past that, then you can see why this concern is irrelevant! Cheers! +1 Perm always said that stock individually will not beat the market but the portfolio as a whole will do great over time. Cheers GK

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/22/are-you-sure-you-can-invest-that-in-your-tfsa/?__lsa=2d85-2c1b Fannie Mae, which used to be traded on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Stock Exchange, was delisted in June 2010 began trading on the OTC Bulletin Board, which is not a designated exchange; however, because it also listed on the Stuttgart Stock Exchange in Germany, it appears its shares do qualify for investment by TFSAs, regardless of which exchange the shares are purchased through. I recently moved some LCSHF which is listed OTC into my TFSA at Scotia I-Trade without any problems. -CM How does dividend tax work for the OTC ? 30% withholding?

Congratulations Sanjeev!

Alright! I will give it a go again. Give me a day. Winning a competition is more depended on telling what the judges want to hear than bringing in something new. Especially in investing since it might be pointless giving a growth investor a value play. In terms of special situation you can do eBay Paypal spin-off.

I think he did it in a cnbc interview. Cheers

Sorry hear that. But looks like he lived a full life. May he rest in peace.

views of ratios could change over time. so using that was a reference can cause mistakes. It is better just view them as bonds and adjust accordingly in terms of risk based on your own analysis. If you are not sure have a large margin of safety or pass.

is there a version of this for Chinese companies ? Also Good luck West! I wish i had your Quant skills.

I am surprised no one mentioned www.footnotechanges.com Thank You

Thank you

Thanks but is there any way to get it at a lower cost?

According to Reuters ;) Peter1234, Thanks for coming to the rescue with your reply! This is a great board for this reason! How does someone get delta reports ?

A page from me or you is not the same as a page from CEO of Iscar. The reading of that page will also be different. The key is to know what to look for and that takes a life time of work to get a good understanding. To know what is important and knowable. Bulk of the time is spent getting a idea of what is going on. Also it takes real understanding to put something so complex in to a page. Kind of relates to the discussion that has been talked about on the board about Munger's one liners. From my experience it takes a lot of work in trying to apply them and think about them through real life cases to get a real understanding or them. Than it takes more time thinking about them to integrate them into you daily thinking and usage. but once that is done it pays big dividend over your life time. (but if you just stop at isn't that a true thing to say and leave it at that than it is the same as not reading them)

I hope I succeeded in explaining why the assets are backed up by cash flow. Their cash flow is mostly free, and their reinvestments were almost completely expansion investments. I don't consider this as an asset play, although at some point in the future, it could. numbers in 5 to 10 years : based on their expansions of the last decade and their maturity profile, I guess that only 2/3 of their hectares are mature and fully producing. Over the next 5-8 years, substantially all of their acreage will be mature and generate cash flow. This extra cash flow basically needs no extra investments, apart from a factory they are still building out in 2014. This extra revenue also is higher margin, because the cost to harvest, fertilize, and maintain a immature hectare is about the same as a fully producing and mature hectare. So I guess that at these palmoil prices, and exchange rates, a free cash flow of 1,1-1,5 £/sh should be possible over the next few years. Remember, this assumes no extra investments and no higher palmoil prices. Of course, it is very conservative to assume no extra investments. But in that case there is no need for the net cash of 1£/sh which they can return. So you're looking at a free cash flow of 1,1-1,5£/sh on an investment of 5,75£/sh. With higher or lower palmoil prices, this picture changes drastically of course... Sorry for the later reply i got lazy. :) So what is the reason for the recent decrease in Palm planted per ha relative to investments in PPE ? Change in economics ? or increase in Land prices ? That was the point i decided to stop looking. PPE purchase Plam Plannted (Ha) 2008 20 M 2242 2009 40 M 4479 2010 44 M 7580 2011 50 M 1900 * PPE investment in property from morning star conformed close enough numbers from annual report http://financials.morningstar.com/cash-flow/cf.html?t=AEP&region=gbr&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA * Ha planted from annual report 2008 to 2011 There are several reasons for that : - first as you state valuation for farmland has gone up a lot over the last few years. That's also why their current valuation is very cheap. However, that's a minor reason - more importantly, it has to do with the maturity profile of their expansions. A hectare of palmoil only starts to produce after 4 years and reaches maturity after 8 years. So they capitilize costs until at least the 4th year. These investments aren't completely made at the very first day of course. For example, the factory needed to crush the fruit, has only to be built just in time to start crushing when the trees start fully producing, thus in year 6-7 or so. So, suppose the company expands every year with 1000ha. After 5 years, the company not only has to invest in the planting of new trees of the current year 1000ha, but also some fertilizing of 4year old trees which costs are being capitilized or the building of the factory for the 5 year old trees which will start producing. This dynamic guarantees that according to the accounts, the investment cost/planted ha rises over the years, although in reality it's constant. To give an idea of the investment costs : - compensation + licenses : 1500$/ha - planting (biological assets) : 3000-3500$/ha - Infrastructure (road, bridges, living compounds,...) : 2000$/ha - factory : 2000-5000$/ha (mainly depending on subsoil, and environmental investments) Total : 8.500-12.000$/ha These are current figures I got from Sipef, but as I stated before, AEP has lower investment costs. Conclusion : there surely is an element of inflation, but the main reason is the maturity profile of their plantations. They are in the process of building 2 (first is now finished, second continuing) new factories because of maturing plantations, so this should explain it a bit. Thanks Can't believe i miss the plant Capex. i remember reading it in the annual report. i will hope i won't miss these things again. back to more reading.

The real question should be what kind of woman are you spending your time with ? Charlie Chaplin doesn't have the greatest track record with women.

The company was OJSC Pharmstandard and spin off sub OTCPharm.

I hope I succeeded in explaining why the assets are backed up by cash flow. Their cash flow is mostly free, and their reinvestments were almost completely expansion investments. I don't consider this as an asset play, although at some point in the future, it could. numbers in 5 to 10 years : based on their expansions of the last decade and their maturity profile, I guess that only 2/3 of their hectares are mature and fully producing. Over the next 5-8 years, substantially all of their acreage will be mature and generate cash flow. This extra cash flow basically needs no extra investments, apart from a factory they are still building out in 2014. This extra revenue also is higher margin, because the cost to harvest, fertilize, and maintain a immature hectare is about the same as a fully producing and mature hectare. So I guess that at these palmoil prices, and exchange rates, a free cash flow of 1,1-1,5 £/sh should be possible over the next few years. Remember, this assumes no extra investments and no higher palmoil prices. Of course, it is very conservative to assume no extra investments. But in that case there is no need for the net cash of 1£/sh which they can return. So you're looking at a free cash flow of 1,1-1,5£/sh on an investment of 5,75£/sh. With higher or lower palmoil prices, this picture changes drastically of course... Sorry for the later reply i got lazy. :) So what is the reason for the recent decrease in Palm planted per ha relative to investments in PPE ? Change in economics ? or increase in Land prices ? That was the point i decided to stop looking. PPE purchase Plam Plannted (Ha) 2008 20 M 2242 2009 40 M 4479 2010 44 M 7580 2011 50 M 1900 * PPE investment in property from morning star conformed close enough numbers from annual report http://financials.morningstar.com/cash-flow/cf.html?t=AEP&region=gbr&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA * Ha planted from annual report 2008 to 2011