Charlie

"blaming the real estate bubble all on Spain when German money was all behind this." Why should German money be the cause of the real estate bubble in Spain? :)

"value investors need to accept uncertainty in their investments, always." If you want certainty buy Berkshire Hathaway at P/B of 1,13 and relax. :)

"When Snowball came out I was surprised by the amount of risk Buffett took prior to the 80s and 90s. He did not get rich by avoiding risk. He got rich by taking calculated risks. Dempster, Sanborn Map, Amex salad oil, Berkshire, Geico (twice), Wesco, Wells Fargo (1990s), Washington Post - during an advertising collapse, Salomon Bros, Buffalo News - everyone of these had risk associated with them at the time - sometimes potentially fatal risk such as Geico, and Buffalo News. Even in the 2008 collapse he went against the grain and propped up GE and Goldman Sachs - both were extremely risky at the time." I remember a comment form Buffett when he said he is a "No-Risk Guy". I also remember Munger discussing the Coca-Cola investment. He said it was extrem low risk. With Buffett investments/Berkshire Hathaway the perceived risks seems always high, but the real risk is often extremely low, especielly with the big investments. ;)

Buffett talked after the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting at CNBC about holding cash: ;) BECKY: Warren, we've been watching oil prices this morning, too. And as we've seen, the risk off trade with stocks under a lot of pressure this morning. You've got Treasuries here in the United States a bit higher. Oil prices have been coming down. And this started happening on Friday after we got that lousy jobs number. Right now you can see it's trading at 97 and change, just below $98. You've got a big stake in Conoco. How do you see oil prices going from here and how does it play into your investments? BUFFETT: Well, I— the truth is I don't have the faintest idea, which is probably why I shouldn't have phoned Conoco in the first place. We did not make money with Conoco. And this is— you talk about risk off... BECKY: Yeah. BUFFETT: ...if my understanding— if they take— risk off is selling and going into cash... BECKY: Yeah. BUFFETT: ...that's risk on for me. BECKY: Yeah. BUFFETT: I think— I think cash is probably as risky an asset as you can own over time. So you're not taking risk off when you— when you go into cash. You are going into something that is sure to decline in purchasing power over time. So that is the biggest risk on trade I know is to own cash.

http://www.poseidonpalace.gr/ :)

hotel room per person with all inclusive and flight.

€630 for 15 days :)

The best bargain I have found in Greece is to make holidays in Greece with my wife. :) At the moment I´m in Leptokaria a small city between the sea and with view at the Olymp. Great weather, beautiful landscapes, great food, great wine and reading about the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. It doesn´t get much better than that. ;) Cheers!

Munich Re reports good numbers: MUNICH, April 26 | Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:29am EDT (Reuters) - Munich Re expects net profit of more than 750 million euros ($989 million) in the first quarter, above expectations, helped by a drop in big damage claims and financial market tensions, its chief executive said on Thursday. The figure is well above the 681 million euro average expectation of analysts' forecasts in data compiled by Thomson Reuters. Munich posted a loss of around 948 million euros in the year-earlier quarter. "We assume that we've earned more than 750 million euros in quarterly profit," Nikolaus von Bomhard said in the text of a speech to the annual meeting of shareholders. The world's biggest reinsurer repeated that it sees net profit rebounding to around 2.5 billion euros this year from 712 million last year, when results were hit by a slew of natural disasters and financial market disruption from the euro zone debt crisis. Data from StarMine, which weights analyst forecasts according to their track record, show Munich Re trading at 7.7 times 12-month forward earnings, on par with world No. 3 reinsurer Hannover Re but at a discount to Swiss Re's multiple of 9.0. ($1 = 0.7585 euros) (Reporting by Christian Kraemer, writing by Jonathan Gould) http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/munichre-earnings-idUSWEA948420120426?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector&rpc=43 Cheers!

"Today, with Berkshire even more a bargain than in 2000 and Warren once again willing to repurchase Berkshire's stock near the current price..." perhaps after Fidelity have their investor day with Warren they can value the stock better ;D

Charlie Munger once told the story at a Wesco Meeting, how Andy Kilpatrick bought Berkshire on margin and made a lot of money and Charlie thought that that was a very smart investment from Andy ;)

more insider buying :-) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000118143112015000/xslF345X03/rrd337310.xml Cheers!

I like the statements most that Berkshire is trading "significantly, substantially and far below" its intrinsic value ;-) Cheers!

Hannover Re optimistic for 2012 as prices rise 1:33am EST FRANKFURT, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Hannover Re is optimistic for 2012 after obtaining higher prices and premiums when it renewed contracts with insurance companies at the start of this year to help them cover big losses such as hurricanes and earthquakes. "Overall, we expect rising premiums and rising earnings in 2012," Chief Executive Ulrich Wallin told a journalist briefing. The world's third-biggest reinsurer obtained price increases of 3-6 percent when renewing the annual contracts with insurers in January. About two thirds of Hannover's non-life reinsurance business premiums were up for renewal at the start of the year, and the group said it boosted the volume of renewed premiums by 6 percent to 3.693 billion euros ($4.8 billion). Wallin declined to comment on the reinsurer's 2011 results, which the group is preparing to unveil on March 14. "We certainly have no reason to give any sort of profit warning," he said. Hannover Re has said it expected to post net profit of at least 500 million euros in 2011 and possibly pay out more than 40 percent of it as a dividend. ($1 = 0.7625 euros) Cheers :)

"Somewhat off topic, but while we are talking about the general market evaluation, would anyone care to share their opinion on why the average market valuation over the last 30 years is justifiably higher in some investors minds? I've heard Joel Greenblatt use only the last 20 years to say that "compared to the last 20 years, todays market valuation is in the 90% of cheap". Why would he use only the last 20 years, when he knows that those 20 years have been historically overpriced? Is there a reason why the Shiller P/E should be seen as PE of 20 = fair valued, instead of the normal(for the last century): PE of 15 = fair valued? I've heard that with the introduction of fiat money, the market deserves a higher PE, but i'd like to hear other peoples thoughts." I remember the comment of Munger who said that in the past the market has been horrible mispriced on the downside and now it seems that people have gotten a little bit more rational and price the market a little bit more efficient.

Merry Christmas to everyone and a big thank you to Sanjeev for this great message board.

- focusing on stock price action instead how the business is performing. - holding too many companies you don´t really understand. - being overoptimistic/not thinking about worst case scenarios. ;)

"Moreover, the older we become, the faster time accelerates from one's experience base or "perspective." One year to a ten year old compared to octogenarians like Buffett or Munger seems like eternity versus a blink of an eye to our elders. "Where did the time go?" is often heard by the older generation among us." Benjamin Franklin: "The scarcer things are the more they are valued." :)

"Buffett has been doing MANY things the past year or two to set BRK up after he is gone. Seems to be some urgency (more so than in the past). Interesting. " Buffett mentioned in a recent interview there is about an 80 percent chance that he will be around another 5 years as chairman and CEO of Berkshire: BECKY: Yeah, I did notice. Whitney Tilson came out with a report, I don't know, maybe it was a month or two ago, and said that he thinks there's an 80 percent chance that you'll still be the chairman and CEO of Berkshire in five years and a 50 percent chance that you'll still be doing this 10 years from now. BUFFETT: I think he's right about the 80 percent chance. I'll have to go look at the figures, but I'm in, you know, I'm in very good health, I love what I do and I'll go gaga someday and they'll yank me out of here. BECKY: But you feel good and you think that that's a reasonable 80 percent chance that you'll be doing this five years from now? BUFFETT: Yeah, if I'm lucky, sure.

here is a good picture that shows that equities are relatively cheap and gives an idea why Buffett is buying so much equities. :)

Here is another great quote: "It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it – who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet – that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple." - Charlie Munger :)

I love this quote: "Experience tends to confirm a long-held notion that being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale, in doing some simple and logical thing, will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognizable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits, with a curious mind that loves diagnosis involving multiple variables. And then all that is required is a willingness to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favorable, using resources available as a result of prudence and patience in the past." — Charlie Munger Cheers :)

with 100% of my portfolio in Berkshire and zero cash it´s a good day and the next months will be good as well!!! I love 1-foot hurdles with nearly zero risk! Cheers :)

Great analysis form another board. :) Berkshire Hathaway reported the company's net worth during the first half of 2011 increased 3.4% with book value equal to $98,716 per A share as of 6/30/11. The $5.7 billion increase in shareholders' equity was due primarily to $4.9 billion in net earnings and the impact of favorable currency translation. During the second quarter, Berkshire's operating revenues rose 11% to $37.1 billion which included $1.68 billion from a reinsurance contract with a unit of AIG. Under the contract, Berkshire agreed to reinsure the bulk of AIG's U.S. asbestos liabilities with a maximum limit of indemnification of $3.5 billion. With the exception of the Finance and Financial Products group, all of Berkshire's other business units reported revenue gains during the second quarter, including double-digit gains at Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Marmon and the other businesses. Burlington's 17% revenue increase during the second quarter to $4.8 billion reflected 13% higher average revenues per car/unit as well as an increase in cars/units handled and higher fuel surcharges driven by higher fuel costs. In 2011, most of Berkshire's manufacturing businesses experienced increased levels of business and improved operating results, although the rates of improvement were uneven. Of all the manufacturing businesses, IMC Metalworking, an industry leader in the metal cutting tools business with operations worldwide, delivered the largest increase in revenues for the second quarter and first six months of 2011 reflecting greater than expected customer demand, especially in the automotive markets. While most of Berkshire's businesses point to a continued economic recovery, the building product group continues to be negatively impacted by slow construction activity, especially in the single-family housing markets. In addition, revenues from Berkshire's manufactured housing and finance business (Clayton Homes) declined 19% in the second quarter as revenues from home sales were hammered 30% lower. Unit sales in 2011 declined about 22% with the average price per home sold also dropping. Clayton Home's operating results continue to be negatively affected by the ongoing soft housing markets and the surplus of traditional single family homes for sale. Nevertheless, Clayton Homes remains the largest manufacturing housing business in the U.S. and expects to continue to operate profitably even under the current depressed conditions. Berkshire's operating earnings declined 12% during the second quarter to $2.7 billion while net earnings were up 74% to $3.4 billion, primarily due to a swing to a $713 million gain on investment and derivatives compared to a $1.1 billion loss in the prior year period. The investment gain in the 2011 second quarter included a pre-tax gain of $1.25 billion, or $806 million after-tax, from the redemption of Goldman Sachs 10% Preferred Stock. A 12% gain in second quarter operating earnings of the non-insurance businesses was more than offset by a decline in insurance investment income and underwriting losses from estimated catastrophe losses primarily from the earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand. Leading the way for the non-insurance businesses was the manufacturing, service and retailing group, which increased net earnings 18% in the second quarter to $789 million. Berkshire's small retailing group had a gem of a quarter with second quarter pre-tax earnings rising a shiny 64% to $46 million reflecting improved operating results from the jewelry and home furnishing retailers as well as higher earnings of See's Candies, primarily attributable to the timing of the later Easter holiday in 2011. Marmon's second quarter pre-tax earnings rose 25% to $273 million with nine of the eleven business sectors producing similar or increased earnings. Other manufacturing pre-tax earnings increased 18% to $643 million, which reflected higher earnings of IMC, CTB and Johns Manville, partially offset by lower earnings at Shaw, Acme and certain of the apparel businesses. Given the magnitude of the first quarter catastrophe losses, as well as the potential for additional losses from the upcoming hurricane season, it appears that for the first time in nine years, Berkshire will have an underwriting loss in 2011. This doesn't change Warren Buffett's expectation that over time the insurance operations will break even, and Berkshire will get the benefit of the free use of float. However, the cost of float for the first six months of 2011, as represented by the ratio of the underwriting loss to average float, was about 2%. Float approximated $71 billion as of 6/30/11, an approximate 8% increase since year end. Insurance investment income declined 9% to $995 million in the second quarter since the 12% Swiss Re investment and 10% Goldman Sachs preferred stock were called with the funds now invested at the lower rates available today. Investment income is expected to decline further when the 10% General Electric preferred stock is called later this year. Berkshire's railroad, utility and energy businesses are capital intensive with $2.6 billion spent on capital expenditures during the first half of 2011. Capital expenditures for the remainder of 2011 are estimated at $4.7 billion for MidAmerican and Burlington to be funded from cash flow from operations and debt proceeds. Aggregate borrowings of the railroad, utilities and energy businesses were about $32.3 billion as of 6/30/11. Berkshire's balance sheet continues to reflect significant liquidity and a strong capital base of $163 billion. Excluding utility and finance investments, Berkshire ended the first quarter with $157.5 billion in investments ($95,391 per share) allocated approximately 42.1% to equities ($66.4 billion), 22.1% to fixed-income investments ($34.8 billion), 8.3% to other investments ($13.1 billion-including preferred stocks), and 27.5% in cash ($43.2 billion). Free cash flow increased 58% during the first half to $6.5 billion, primarily due to an increase in insurance float. During the first half, Berkshire was a net seller of approximately $646 billion in fixed-income investments and a net purchaser of $4.2 billion in equities. Berkshire's financial strength allows Buffett to make significant investments which should provide substantial future returns. Buffett is seeking acquisitions in the $5-$20 billion range. In March, Berkshire announced it was acquiring Lubrizol, an innovative specialty chemical company, for approximately $9 billion in cash with the deal expected to close in the next one to three months. Lubrizol reported 2010 sales and earnings of $5.4 billion and $732 million, respectively. In June 2011, Berkshire acquired the non-controlling interests in Wesco Financial for $543 million consisting of cash of approximately $298 million and 3.25 million shares of Berkshire Class B common stock. Berkshire Hathaway appears undervalued currently trading at $107,300 per A share and $71.25 per B share. Based on current business fundamentals, I expect Berkshire's A shares to trade between $112,000-$163,000 per share and the B shares to trade between $75-$109 per share.

What benefit is there for Germany to be a part of the union? One of the great benefits for Germany to be part of the union is a relatively weak currency. So Germany can export much more. The German Mark would have appreciated much more than the Euro. Charlie