BG2008

Maybe you can do a search for properties that you feel sold for higher than expected prices and look for who the agent is. Completely different, I just closed on a property a few days ago. The agent basically worked with my wife and I for 2 years. We started out just looking for a co-op for me to use as an office. It morph into something that was 5-6x of the initial price. Along the way, I put in a bid for a condo that turned out to be a bad choice for me and I withdrew because it was internally managed (meaning everyone has to pitch in to clean up) and I was looking for something more turnkey. Then we got outbid on another property and the seller wanted more cash equity in the deal. We closed on a property that we are very happy about. The agent probably showed me a dozen properties and have to deal with the seller being weird and wanting to 1031 his proceeds. There were some fixes that needed to be taken care. The amount of patience that this woman had justified every penny that she earned. A lot of people mention asking behavioral questions etc. Here are some food for thought, just tell an agent that you want the highest price and you are willing to sit on it for one whole year. If they cringe and become uncomfortable, you will know that is not the agent for you. If they understand where you are coming from and are willing to work with you, then you've got the right agent. It will hurt your commission negotiation. But you will likely find the right agent. This is similar to a manager telling prospective investors that he has a 2 year lock up. It very quickly scares away the investors who will treat it like an ATM. So if your agent is looking to move fast at a low price, they will give you pretty good reasons why you shouldn't try to maximize price. I second the advice of looking for people who are older and have seen at least one cycle. I used to be very cynical of RE agents. After working with my current agent, I now understand why certain 40-50 year old agents manage to stay in this business for 20-30 years. They have infinite patience and tolerate lots of BS, including mine.

In the small and micro cap side, Calumet is a $350mm MC with a $1.2bn net debt. I think the difference is that Calumet is a "Real Company" with $300mm of EBITDA. It has always had several billion of EV in its corporate history. Sometimes, the opportunity maybe in hundreds of million market cat that used to be $2bn. It's about righting the shipping rather than growing into it.

I forgot the Bank Stocks in General and TARP Warrants

I beg to differ only in the hope of making myself and other less "boxed in" with being too Graham like which I suffered from early in my career. I think if you find a decent business trading at 10-12x P/FCF with 4-6% organic EBITDA growth. It naturally translate to a 12-16% compounding. If the shares are to continue to trade in that range and the company actually buys back shares, you wind up with a pretty good long term rate that has surprised me quite a bit. I think if they pay 2% dividend and buy back 8-10% of the S/O coupled with the growth and the market eventually re-rate them to a 20x P/FCF for the nice businesses that it is, the CAGR on owning something like this is actually quite high. Probably not a 10 bagger in 10 years, but likely a 4x in 10 years. This is probably one of the most overlooked areas of "value" in the last 10 years for me.

I was inspired by a recent conversation about multi-bagger opportunities, why they happen and what are some potential current opportunities. I will start by sharing some examples, both past and current Past Examples Charter - This is a rollup in a good industry mixed with intelligent use of leverage at up to 4.5x EBITDA mixed with sharebuybacks mixed with good execution and a chairman and CEO with great past track record. There is along thread Xpel - Small cap, great product, frankly, I don't know much. But I know the outcome. I will read the thread. Small market penetration. Fast adoption. Margin expansion. etc FANG - Just phenomenal businesses growing 20-40% top line, amazing margins, network effect, pricing power etc Napco - Deleveraging play since 2009. Frankly, they got into trouble, got over levered and have been deleveraging. The stock has done phenomenal Constellation Software - Other know better Heico - Forbes article https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/01/13/heico-mendelson/#93d87c74b18c HVAC Companies - Lennox (5x since housing bubble price) AO Smith (10x since housing bubble price) These are a bit counter intuitive. I used to be a HVAC engineer and I used to size the quipment using the manufacturer load calculator software. To my untrained eye, I didn't realize that that was the manufacturers' way of creating "habits" as an engineer used to specifying Lennox equipment would loath to specific a different manufacturer as they do not understand the pros and cons. If there were issues, they would know it already. SaaS Companies - I missed the boat here, someone smarter can explain GGP Bankrupted equity back in 2009 - roughly a 100 bagger for Ackman and company Fannie and Freddie - Levered equity stub Domino's Pizza - Great Franchisor business, improved pizza quality, invested in technology, etc HHC - A laggard in the last 5 years, but still a 4 bagger since its spinoff from GGP Berry Global - Up 3x since IPO in late 2012. Public LBO of a plastic packaging company. I own a position here and think that it is very undervalued. I think intrinsic is much higher in the 70-100 range as they execute on their integration and deleveraging in the next few years Current Opportunities Calumet - Deleveraging play, specialty chem business does about $200mm of EBITDA and likely worth $1.8bn to $2.0bn at 9-10x EBITDA. Montana refinery likely worth 4.5-5.0x EBITDA over $500mm. If sold in next 12 months, company will delever from $1.2bn net debt to $600mm net debt with $100mm of FCF in 2020. 2020 is the first year after the company implement ERP software and have no turnaround activities which means all facilities run at full speed with new catalyst. In addition, IMO 2020 will benefit company as the WCS/WTI spread is now $20 for the strip. Their facilities can process the heavy sulfur Canadian crude. That's my crude understanding, pun intended. Why does the opportunity exist? It is a MLP that doesn't pay dividend which means there is not natural shareholder base. They can't pay for a while because the 2025 debt restrict debt payment until a 3x fixed charge ratio. This is different than 3x debt to EBITDA. Debt trades at 5.7% to 7.6% and the equity trades at 28%. Probably the most mispriced security that I know. Recent unsecured debt was issued at 11% and then prompted traded up to $112. They got robbed with the debt. 2 more months, they probably could've gotten it done at 9%. But such is the life of a levered company in the capital markets with a MLP structure. I think this is potentially a $20-30 stock in 3-5 years which now trades at $4.50. I think the current CEO is a huge improvement over his previous family run. Everything improved, operation, capital allocation, technology, and people. Aspen Group - This is a high growing "Peter Lynch" style. Better product, one of the lowest cost online nursing program, mostly does RN to BSN in the past and have expanded to Pre-licensure to BSN. Organically growing 40% a year with 60% gross margin. No EBITDA as they have to pre-hire call center staff who function as academic advisors. I think incentives are correct. A little bit too much equity comp and CEO is eccentric. But it has the potential to be a multi-bagger. Just raised $13.9mm at $7.15 per share and significantly de-risk the balance sheet. I wish the CEO has the investor relationship skills of Elon Musk. I think society needs more of companies like Aspen where you can get a BSN soup to nuts for under $40k. People don't take on much debt and don't go to "economic jail" for failing out of college. Ashtead - One of the better businesses that I have seen. But very prone to 50% selloffs. Scale, network effect, 2 bigger players and lots of little guys who can't compete. I wish I bought more in the past year. Ashtead does equipment leasiing. btw. Would love to have a very active conversation on this

There are trade-offs wherever you live. This "dorm" feeling as Greg put is it the exact reason I chose to not live in a big city for any extended period of time. People are annoying all over the place. You're just much more likely to encounter them in a city due to proximity. Personally I prefer to walk outside every morning to see a few deer grazing in the field, over some meth addict sitting on my steps. My wallet also thanks me! But to each their own! Different strokes for different folks :P Castanza, Deer, perfect grass fed meat for a keto diet. Just got to add some butter or rendered deer fat at the end

There are trade-offs wherever you live. This "dorm" feeling as Greg put is it the exact reason I chose to not live in a big city for any extended period of time. People are annoying all over the place. You're just much more likely to encounter them in a city due to proximity. Personally I prefer to walk outside every morning to see a few deer grazing in the field, over some meth addict sitting on my steps. My wallet also thanks me! But to each their own! Different strokes for different folks :P Castanza, Deer, perfect grass fed meat for a keto diet.

Since my passive/aggressive announcement, I have not smelled pot yet. But I have been out of the apartment in the last few days. Someone did aggressively torn my publicly placed letter in half with half of it still on the wall and half of it on the ground. From the tear pattern, it seem like an aggressive "f*%$ you" down to up stroke. The responses on this board is interesting in the differences between dense city, suburb and rural settings. NYC people are known for avoiding contact. I have been on subway cars where a guy walks into the car and starts announcing that s/he lost their job and is now homeless and needs $10 so s/he can stay at a shelter for the night is diabetic and needs to scrounge up enough money for insulin is HIV positive and needs money for treatment is selling candy to raise money has children and need to feed them SHOWTIME, IT"S SHOWTIME (If you lived here, you'll know) And literally no one will bat an eye. We learned a long time ago that if you make eye contact, they know they "Got You" I have only given money to people who actually provided entertainment and a guy who had both of his legs cut off and he was literally pushing himself on the Subway car with his arms. This was at 2AM in the morning. So we are not the type to knock on 10 of our neighbors door and ask "are you the one smoking weed? can you please stop it?" Everyone here has a place to be and 10 things that were supposedly to be done yesterday. God forbid if you stand on the left of the escalator or stopped mid stride to look at a building. This is the context that we are dealing with. Frankly, I don't know any of my neighbor's name. I only know the Super for the property. FYI, I love my apartment as it is a 5 minute walk to the subway which is a 25 ride into midtown Manhattan, there is street parking for my car and I am 2 minutes from the LIE and the parkways. It is like the most ideal location. There is literal water damage in my apartment and I haven't bothered the management to fix it because it is a rent stabilized apartment and I would like to stay here as long as possible. The crap that us NYer put up with in order to have well located housing is incredible!! Everyone else in the building has been great in the last 8 years as they just leave each other alone. I will bet money that there are others in the building who are extremely glad that someone finally "spoke up." This is an issue that is not solely confined to me. This is likely an issue all over NYC. Frankly, I have visited extremely high end multi-family buildings in Texas, DC etc where in the middle of touring, there is a tenant who is blazing in their apartment. These are like $3,000 a month apartments. And the leasing agent is embarrassed as hell and promised me that they won't tolerate that. So, I will wager $1 (like the guys from Trading Places) that there will be an article in the WSJ in the next 3 years about how the decriminization of weed has led to a lot of neighbor complaints.

Coast/Urban all the way! JK

This is great advice. Part of me is extremely resentful that "I have to deal with this"

Thanks for the advice. Pot smoking is still illegal, but no cop will enforce it. People smoke out in the open and with the current mayor, they are not enforcing this type of behavior. Your suggestions are quite helpful. Not sure if the public shaming hasn't worked yet. It was posted last night. So, we will see. I did suggest using edibles in my letter and heavily apologize for wasting 2 minutes of the non-smokers' time.

Probably a little different in that weed has a bit more chemicals in it which is why people smoke it in the first place

Do you think anyone in a NYC apartment building talk to their neighbors or even say hello? I agree that probably should've been a first step.

Apartment Building - Already wrote a fairly passive aggressive public shaming letter. So the cats kind of out of the bag. Problem is also, not sure who the pot smoker is.

Pot has been decriminalized lately. I have nothing against cannabis and lots of research shows that it is a lot less addictive than opiates. However, I am currently dealing with a neighbor who lights up 5-6 nights a week around midnight. The smell is so strong that it is making it hard to sleep. I am sure that I am getting a mild case of second hand smoke. NYC has a smoke free act of 2002 that prohibits smoking in common areas indoors. Any suggestions for dealing with this? I have a feeling that WSJ will have an article on this sooner or later. The same rules that applies to cigarette smoking in terms of distance from building etc should apply here as well. Again, nothing against pot. But I shouldn't have to suffer from second hand smoke.

BERY should be interesting with the next couple quarters of earnings. Down 6% volume wise last year may easily convert into up 2-4% this year which still means down 2-4%, but market will likely like it given the current P/FCF. Refinancing at 1% and 1.5% means an extra $30-40mm of interest savings.

Come on DTEJD1997, you just doing the "private real estate" equivalent of talking your own book. You're pulling a Bill Ackman! I see right through you! Just joking. I really have to come visit you in Detroit.

Yes, Anti Aging will be a big trend

I can tell you with precision that as you cross over 32, it is starting to look like you may need help. After 35, you definitely need help if you are not succeeding on your ow. Over 40, you're almost shit out of luck unless you are a celebrity with access to best healthcare. But I'll take my odds on 18 years old hormone charged teenager over 40 years platinum celebrity making $30mm a year.

LC, I believe you are referencing the cause of IVF. I don't have any back up for that stat. But it was something that an older successful female PE executive told me. She has an autistic child and told me that. I have no reason to not believe her. She mentioned that there is an active network of female PE executives who meet as a support group of a sort to talk about raising autistic children. In my late 30s, my parents' nagging of me and my siblings to get married and have children early doesn't seem so unreasonable.

Yeah, I got lots of housing in Texas exposure

She probably works in consulting. The auditing hours are not as bad unless its beginning of year.

Yes!!!! Was just talking about this with my cousin who is considering a career in finance. I was telling it that it is almost taboo to talk about female fertility due to the PCness. I told her that if you really want to pursue a career in finance as a woman, you kind of have to be aware of the un-talked about price as something like 70-80% of the female PE executives have children who are autistic. I was not aware of this until a senior female PE executive told me this.

Consolidation of the US college systems due to failures of smaller liberal arts college Mental Health as an openly discussed topic even among highly successful individuals Online learning especially for adults with some college credits (Aspen Group) Aging in place due to improvement in technology rather than aging in a nursing home of some sort