Morgan
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Everything posted by Morgan
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The guy who started it sold it a few years ago I think. It was quite good when he was running it. I haven't been following too much since he sold since it changed a bit after the sale.
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If you use Google Finance, now might be the time to...
Morgan replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I'm giving rocket a try too. Looks pretty good so far. Doesn't seem to have a quick way to upload portfolios though. Anyone able to find a way to do it? -
If you use Google Finance, now might be the time to...
Morgan replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Mine finally was changed - what a completely useless update. I guess I'll find a different service to use. What the heck Google? Why? -
Why do Chinese companies have so many subsidiaries
Morgan replied to rukawa's topic in General Discussion
This site is incredible. Thanks! -
Yes I need to pay $8 to listen to someone tell me that it's ok and I should feel good paying a lot of money for a company that doesn't make any money. You see... these are not the droids you're looking for. I believe these are the articles that are printed in the book. They're free here and worth the read even if the website looks silly. https://waitbutwhy.com/2017/03/elon-musk-post-series.html
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A few years ago I was looking into buying a mid 80s Porsche 911 SC and they were 10k-20k depending on condition. But now, those cars are 40k-50k. I'm definitely not going to buy one at those prices. They'll almost certainly go down eventually. I can wait...
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Thank you for the list!
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cash for real estate vs. Mortgage vs. margin
Morgan replied to crastogi's topic in General Discussion
I basically have no cash, so I usually mortgage as much as possible of the purchase price as long as it's cheap relative to the rents. In my view, cash is key and worth a lot more than the possibility of getting a loan. I'd rather have debt and save my precious cash (if the interest rates are reasonable) for emergencies. -
Thanks for sharing the book with us - just ordered it.
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Very fun book to read and really shows the constant hustle you have to have to grow a really large company.
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Portland Gas Co - Buffett's first board seat?
Morgan replied to Dempster Diver's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
I haven't heard of it either. I'd like to see them too! -
For those who believe Trump is unfit to serve as President
Morgan replied to onyx1's topic in General Discussion
As others have posted, Trump would likely not be that great for the US, but imposing martial law and stopping our democratic process is highly likely to be far worse over the long term. It would set a seriously bad precedent. Stopping democracy because you don't agree with the views of the other person is taking the wrong path down a bad road in my opinion. We must work our differences out and continue to grow our country in a stabilized manner. -
Thanks maxprogram. I read it over the weekend on a camping trip. It did have some good info and was fun, but it was written poorly. Regardless, I'm glad to have read it and learned something.
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Thanks Poor Charlie. I also came across this one, "From Cassandra with Love..." by Sam Zell: http://www.cre.org/memberdata/pdfs/zell_cassandra.pdf
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Where are the accounts of the great real estate investors?
Morgan replied to Packer16's topic in General Discussion
Donald Bren is pretty interesting. He is the richest real estate developer in the US with a net worth of $15 billion. He bought 10,000 acres in the southern California boonies in 1963 and then built a 250,000 person city in the coming decades. Another huge stroke of luck was when his company was purchased for $34m in 1970 and sold back to him two years later for $22m. I mean come on... how much better could that get? An extra $12m to grow your company? That's just incredibly lucky. That being said, you still have to execute very well to grow that large. Anyways, later he and some partners bought the Irvine company that had another 100,000 acres to develop on. He is very secretive and not much is known about his company. Supposedly he has 500 office properties, about 50 shopping centers and at least 50,000 apartments. He has gotten mostly good press from what I have seen except some negative press from the OC Weekly. See some of the links below: http://www.ocweekly.com/news/donald-brens-highway-robbery-6420022 http://www.ocweekly.com/news/web-extra-the-real-donald-bren-with-commentary-6477118 http://media.ocweekly.com/6016594.0.jpg -
Where are the accounts of the great real estate investors?
Morgan replied to Packer16's topic in General Discussion
While I do agree that it is certainly possible to get quite wealthy/rich from real estate, it is much less common (it seems) to become a real estate billionaire than other industries. Most of the billionaires are builders and there don't seem to be many who get it from inflation alone. There may be some who have bought and held who have become billionaires. There are a large number of Hong Kong and China real estate billionaires. They mostly have come from the same generation and are now 65-80 years old or so. This type of thing isn't likely to happen in the US as far as I can tell. Perhaps on a very small scale in the shale oil rush areas. That's a big maybe. The NYC and HK/China massive return scenarios will happen again, but the question is where? I would guess parts of India, Africa and Brazil. Africa (and that is a broad generalization) is probably at the lowest point of this relative the other places and India seems like the safest place in terms of stability, government and growth. There is opportunity in many, many places for real estate, you just gotta go out and do it! Great! I just ordered it and am looking forward to reading it. -
Where are the accounts of the great real estate investors?
Morgan replied to Packer16's topic in General Discussion
I think part of it is the private nature in general of real estate investing compared to investing in publicly traded companies. There are of course publicly traded real estate instruments. There are a number of real estate investors on this board; DTEJD1997, ragnarisapirate, myself, and probably a few others, but mostly we're fairly small operators. Probably all under $10m in real estate assets. I may be wrong on the size part. The real estate investors who are huge probably don't have time to or desire to post here. Again, I may be wrong on that too. All that being said there are a number of great books on real estate: - All of William J. Poorvu's books are good - King of Capital by David Carey - Other People's Money by y Charles V. Bagli - The Reichmans by Anthony Bianco looks pretty good, but I haven't read it There are probably other good ones, but I haven't read them. -
Did you read it? If so, how was it? On amazon it has quite a few bad reviews. I ordered, but would like to know what you think of it.
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Assuming it's Bonal, how would you go about financing the deal? I'm just curious. Say you buy it for $5m, use the $1m cash on the balance sheet to pay down part of the debt, that leaves $4m more to come up with. Then raise $1m cash and then borrow $3m. The company makes (averaging the last three years before income taxes) 361k/yr. The debt load for $3m at 4% for 15 years (those may not be realistic terms) per year would be ~254k leaving 107k/yr before taxes. As a theoretical investor putting money into the $1m fund, the company making only ~100k/yr after the buyout, seems quite low. Particularly as the volatility in the earnings in the last five years or so. A change in the revenue by a small percentage or earnings would have pretty drastic effect on the net income and returns. Not long ago, it was trading for about $2.6m in market cap. Currently it's at $4.54m market cap. The earnings have been quite volatile, having gone from $4k (yes $4,000.00 - not $4 million) in 2010 and 510k in 2011 and then a more reasonable 132k to 443k in 2014 and 2015. Is there a better way to structure the deal to reduce risk and increase the profits? A better question to ask may be, is $5m a good price to pay for the company?
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Just to be annoying, he lives in or around Detroit, Michigan or Houston, Texas based on his other posts. So it's a publicly traded company with a market cap under 5m within 15 miles of Detroit or Houston. Anyone have a good screener?
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I've been looking over the years for information on Sam Zell and haven't been particularly successful on how he got his start in real estate and what happened for the next 5-10-20 years after that. Does anyone have a summary of what he has done and why he has been so successful?
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The above photos are just absolutely ridiculously amazing. Elon and Space X are totally changing the world.
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I sometimes have wondered for my company how far down this kind of culture needs to be pushed to (hopefully) make a company more efficient, more prompt and more professional overall. What things do need to be stressed and what things don't. It sounds strange sort of, but if it works for some people and you can hire them and they thrive on it, it can certainly beneficial for both the company and employee.
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I don't believe he goes through a list, at least not publically. He probably had a list at some point, but he probably remembers everything on it. It's just part of his immediate thought process now. If he did have a list I wish he would share it more explicitly. Like dabuff said, Farnam Street seems to have the best list of Mental Models online.