Kraven

thepupil - I think your desire to get away from MBS trading is a good one. While I believe there will always be an MBS (and structured finance) market, I don't believe it will ever be the go-go area it was in years past prior to the financial crisis. Of course in the financial world "never" and "some time many years from now" basically equate to the same thing. So let's just say it won't be anytime soon most likely. Personally, if it was me, I would not try to transfer internally. In a perfect world that should be just fine, but we don't live in a perfect world. Think of it from the perspective of your group, particularly your MD. He will hear that his young guy just rejected him by wanting to not only leave, but go to someone else in the firm! It's like not only breaking up with someone but wanting to date their best friend. It stings, and you know what happens when someone with BSD aspirations feels hurt or embarrassed. So I wouldn't recommend that route. I think you keep working hard and doing what you're doing. Take from it what you can and learn as much as you can. Try not to get so down on it. There is always a tendency for young guys to feel that they are wasting so much time. You probably feel you're 9 months in and you could have been doing something else with this time and before you know it will be a year, etc. Years will past and you will be doing whatever you're doing at that time and you will hardly remember that first year. It won't mean squat. So don't stress too hard about it. I typically hate when the answer people give is to network because I think it means nothing. But in this case, talk to people you know who might be at places (other than your current shop) you would want to work. You never know when they've heard of something. Sometimes you catch it at an opportune moment and they need a body and you'll do. At the same time, contact a headhunter which may or may not be a waste of time, but at least a good one can help you explore some options. Try very quietly to get a recommendation on someone good and discreet. Finally, start trying to contact some shops you like. Find out the names of some people there. See if you can meet up with some people and buy them a drink. Kind of like informational interviews, but again, you never know when someone needs a body or they've heard of someone who does. Finally, be patient. This is the hardest part. Remember, as I said above, that when you've been working 10 or 20 years this will be like a blip in your life. I can barely remember my first year and all the horrible times now make for good stories. Just keep on keeping on and be confident that something will turn up. I am not saying you are (I have no idea), but a word of advice, don't be a tool. 99% of the guys are and differentiate yourself by being a decent human being. Someone will respect that and reward you for it. Hope this helps. Good luck.

Guys, I wasn't being critical of him working from home...I was joking about his pajamas and naps! Cheers! I knew that. I was just saying what I thought was proper for an optimal work experience.

If you work from home the only way to get anything done is in black tie unless it's a Friday in which case a nice suit will do. Otherwise you're not really working.

No problem. If you go that route, make sure you send it via Fed Ex, UPS, whatever. It doesn't have to be overnight, you can choose the cheapest option and get someone to sign for it (costs a little extra). Even in this day and age, while an overnight envelope doesn't quite signifiy the importance it once did, in my experience they are still handled better than just a regular mailed letter. For one thing it's bigger and many assistants will open it up and paperclip the inside enclosure to the envelope so it takes up space and draws the eye to it. It's worth the $10-20 in my opinion for best chance at getting it noticed. Just my 2 cents.

Without a direct email address the odds of it getting to him from some random "contact us" email address are slim to none. Your best bet is to FedEx it to him. Just overnight it to him at the main Oaktree address. It will get to him that way, or his assistant anyway. Remember too, he is busy and an important person, but he isn't the President of the United States. He is just a guy in an office with dozens of people around him. He isn't in an ivory tower. So a FedEx will get to at least his assistant and if you're lucky he opens his own mail or at least goes through the stack his assistant places in his inbox. Don't worry too about things being tossed or whatever. That's paranoia. It will be put in his pile, the only question is whether he ever bothers to look at it, but there's nothing you can do about that. I've seen those stacks grow large. Some of these guys though can't stand the clutter on their desk and go through things quickly. Doesn't mean you will hear from him, but you might.

I find the only problem with the Kelley formula, and it's not that big of one, is that the numbers are just kind of made up. I mean that they are pulled out of the air. So with that kind of precision there's no doubt of its usefulness.

I think that some of the advice in this thread about where specifically to go is misguided, although well intentioned. Of course, come up with a list of the "best" and ideal positions you would like. But the truth is that many (most) of these kinds of jobs are incredibly competitive and tough to get into unless one is coming out of a top undergrad or B school depending on the desired position. If that was the case here he wouldn't be asking the question. So what should the young grasshopper do? Simple. Get in anyway he can. Search far and wide. Find a job that is somehow related to investing whether it's at a bank, a fund, a company, or at worst managing his uncle's portfolio. Take it. Do the best you can. Impress people and get some experience under your belt. It's amazing that once there is that experience jobs open up. It may be "impossible" to get a certain desired job at a fund or bank or wherever right now, but things cycle. The day will come again when they need bodies. And when that day comes and they've exhausted the supply of Harvard and Wharton grads, they will look to experience rather than pedigree.

Northern Virginia

I was curious as to something as well. Does anyone have any data as to whether in the entire history of these kinds of discussions whether anyone's mind has ever been changed? Thanks in advance.

I think you just answered your question, unless there is a third son I dont know about? :) anyway, this comes down to two very different interpretations, lets just agree to disagree. Alice, welcome to the board!

yea, but i bet you're as tickled as i am to see those names daisy chained together with that inimitable cultural icon, snookie I was. She's no JWoww, that's for sure, but yeah.

Sanjeev, I don't get you. I can see tuning out Alice Schroeder, Mary Buffett, Doug Kass, etc. But Snookie too? You've gone too far, my friend.

They are leveraged pretty good too. Not as much as some, but the leverage is there. I don't know the story that well, but if margins keep contracting how does that affect their debt coverage? How close are they to their covenants?

Poor, poor Harry. Always wounded by attacks such as asking why he is gloating about the performance of a stock he sold months ago. The horror, the horror. Harry, I remember vividly speaking to a friend around 1988 and telling him that MSFT and AAPL would be good buys. I didn't actually buy them at the time, but man! Those have worked out really well. Me and you, Harry, we are misunderstood. We just want credit for ideas we didn't actually capitalize on, but turned out fantabulous.

Sure. What made you sell the stock and then come back here pointing out the good performance as if you've owned it all along? Harry, you said "I was hoping that you would finally ask a real question about the company itself." Hester then said "Sure. What made you sell the stock and then come back here pointing out the good performance as if you've owned it all along?" That seems like a real question about the company itself. And since your life philosophy is that we're here on planet earth to help each other, create new knowledge and forge lasting relationships, could you please answer Hester's simple question.

There seem to be some tax people on the board and they can probably give a much better answer than I can. But suffice it to say that it's amazingly complicated and it's doubtful that a useful answer can be provided in this kind of forum, but I might be wrong about that. If you want a description, find a structured finance (like a CDO) offering document on the internet where an offshore vehicle was used and read the tax disclosure. Generally individuals don't like the hassles of things like PFICs, although some don't care of course.

I see Harry is back for his every few month gloat about a 0.5% position that did well. No mention as usual about the rest of the 99.5% of the portfolio, but we are supposed to bow down to the genius that is Harry. Truly this is like a baseball team acting like they've won the world series and shouting "We're #1!!" after a win in April.

From The Economist - http://www.economist.com/node/21550274

Or one could conclude that he wasn't promoted due to the fact that he takes offense to what counts as "top performance" at the firm, which was the entire basis of the article. Maybe he wasn't willing to put "axes" on clients or "rip their faces off." (GS terminology.) Interestingly, dealbook has interviews up from more former GS employees, most of whom confirm this article. The only former GS employee that didn't validate his claims never actually said it wasn't true, he just said the guy was a loser for being VP for 12 years. So you are going to believe that after 12 years of working at GS, making very good money, he simply decided he just couldn't take it anymore? It took 12 years to figure that out? Perhaps one could say better later than never, but isn't it equally plausible that he simply is looking for payback for slow or no promotion? His seniority is incredibly relevant. What if a district manager at Wal-Mart who covers 10 stores in his area came out with complaints about the company? Would that be taken as the gospel? This guy is the equivalent of a midlevel manager. His biggest claim was he was in the recruiting video or something like that. Basically that means he looked non-threatening and had a nice smile and was willing to do it. Bankers at places like GS have all decided to make their deal with the devil in one way or another. They either make their peace with it or leave. There is nothing new under the sun though. Ripping people's faces off isn't a GS thing, it's a banker thing and has been around for a very long time. Everytime it comes out that people say it, it's made to seem as if it's new. Go back and look at the Bankers Trust derivatives case from almost 20 years ago already. They too "ripped" people's faces off and there was outrage about that. Most bankers are relatively decent people who want to make money. Nothing wrong with that at all. Most want to do the right thing by their clients if only because that ensures repeat business. The people I knew used to try and bend over backwards to help their cleints. It wasn't because they were saints, but they did want more business.

I am guessing that if a GS employee wrote an op-ed on how wonderful it is to work there and how great the company is that there would be a thread saying how refreshing it is that someone can be so candid and open.

Exactly. The amusing thing is that the general public hears a term like "Executive Director" or "Vice President" and thinks it's a high level, senior position. When in truth, basically everyone with a pulse who has been around more than about 5 minutes gets that title.

I'll let you in on a secret. There is no secret. There is no set amount of time to put in. It will be different for every investment and for every person. The problem a lot of people have is thinking that more time equals better results. It might, it might not. There are plenty of diminishing returns out there. Note the studies done with the horse handicappers and each additional piece of information. As Klarman says, "it would be a serious mistake to think that all of the facts that describe a particular investment are or could be known." So the trick isn't how much time are you spending, but are you covering what you need to. One thing I have seen in my career is that there are thinkers and there are doers. There are people who always want to look at just one more piece of information. Just one more thing to research. Of course it never ends. And there are people who review the issue and make a call. Obviously there is a fine line between not doing enough and doing too much. But investing is an art and part of that art is knowing when you are on the line, i.e. you've done just the right amount of work. This is an individual determination and will be different for each person. In the business world you can always tell those who can't make a call. Whether it's the bankers, lawyers, etc. they are the ones who at 3 am are still noodling over things like a phrase in the preamble of an agreement. They are unable to let go.

Actually, the $5b estimate is for non-GSE claims. The vast majority of the repurchase requests are from the GSEs -- the percentage is stated on page 34 of the 4Q11 earnings presentation. From the 4Q11 earnings presentatio, page 34 "Estimated range of possible loss related to non-GSE representations and warranties exposure could be up to $5B over existing accruals at December 31, 2011" Yes, I'm more worried about the GSE reserves. I think they typically say they can't estimate it well so haven't fully reserved, which is worrisome to me. However, I still think the discount more than makes up for it. I am not sure I understand your concern. Are you concerned that they haven't fully reserved for it or that the losses can't be estimated properly? They are certainly proceeding appropriately. Note that losses can't be reserved unless they are both probable and the loss can be reasonable estimated. I am not sure that either prong applies here and thus there is really nothing they are able to do. As a separate point, others have mentioned that they wonder why BAC doesn't just settle the claims and move on. In my view they will never do this on an aggregate basis. They don't want to set the precedent for future lawsuits and would rather fight now while they aren't penalized for it (well, not penalized more than they have been). That's not to say that they won't settle some things if they find it beneficial, but I wouldn't expect them to settle the majority of their disputes unless it's clear that they have essentially won.

The one on Ebay went last night for an unbelievable $1,026.99. Schloss fans are waving the flag. I would still love to read it someday.

No worries Ben. I think $10b now is prob unlikely I am trying to get more info to get a #. What denominations do CDSs come in? Bc if they come in $100k units of $1m, we would know he at least made $65,-$650m No denominations. They are individual contracts. Theoretically they could be in any amount.