Liberty

I'm fully invested and having one of my best years ever on the investment side, even picked up a few things in March and was lucky to do well on those. But I see that a global pandemic that has kill over 650k people in a few months despite almost the whole world shutting down (what would it have been otherwise?), and is currently out of control in the US and Brazil and India, a long time away from a vaccine, is a big problem even if my stocks are doing well.

Ok, this is a must watch. Playing with masks and blowtorches.. some nice backyard science:

False choice.

If a doctor treated 350 of 350 patients successfully that is a good data point. A normal person when they go to a doctor, they would be interested in how many cases the doctor treated and how many were successful. How do you know how successful he would have been without it without a control group? That, and given the doctor I'd need a lot more than her word before this even becomes and anecdote, much less a data point. The fatality rate for covid is 0.65%. (1-0.65)^350 is 10.2%. In other words there is a 10.2% chance of all 350 paitients recovering with no loss of life. Unlikely? There are a lot of covid patients and a lot of doctors treating them. Say there are 350 doctors each treating 350 patients. The likely hood of 1 doctor not losing any patients is 1-(1-0.102)^350 is essentially 100%. It depends a lot on the demographics of the patients too.. Were they mostly from a nearby long-term care facility for seniors or from a young high-income neighbourhood with mostly healthy young adults? You need to know a lot of things to know what you're looking at, which is why studies try to explicitly control for variables and why anecdotes can be misleading.

If a doctor treated 350 of 350 patients successfully that is a good data point. A normal person when they go to a doctor, they would be interested in how many cases the doctor treated and how many were successful. How do you know how successful he would have been without it without a control group?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/28/us/politics/russia-disinformation-coronavirus.html

Really enjoyed this interview with Kat Cole: http://investorfieldguide.com/kat-cole-how-to-operate-lessons-in-brand-distribution-and-leadership-invest-like-the-best-ep-184/ Great operator, very high IQ and EQ.

Good new interview with Gavin Baker:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-not-solve-coronavirus-crisis/2020/07/26/7fca9a92-cdb0-11ea-91f1-28aca4d833a0_story.html Good for those in red swing states, I guess... :-\

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor. Could be they're just not getting tested nearly as much because of much worse access to healthcare? Don't assume that the numbers (the map) represents reality accurately (the actual terrain).

Yikes. These seemingly random long term effects on young, healthy people need to be studied, but it’ll take time, so in the meantime, let’s be careful:

Thread: “ COVID Update July 26: We can virtually eliminate the virus any time we decide to We can be back to a reasonably normal existence: schools, travel, job growth, safer nursing homes & other settings. And we could do it in a matter of weeks. If we want to.“

https://www.fox4news.com/news/14-family-members-contract-covid-19-after-backyard-barbecue “ Fourteen family members infected, one on a ventilator and one death after a backyard barbecue”

This thread contains a lot of people’s experiences of getting COVID19 and how the recuperation has been up to 100 days afterwards.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

Pure sociopathic evil: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/media/sinclair-fauci-conspiracy-bolling/index.html

Larry Brilliant doesn’t hold back (he helped eradicate smallpox, so he knows what he’s saying):

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bridgewater-associates-lays-off-several-dozen-employees-11595610244 “ Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha was down 13.6% for the yr through June, wiping five years of returns. Now come the layoffs”

https://cspinet.org/news/nearly-3500-public-health-experts-signal-support-fauci-20200722

A lot of the countries that did best were actually much closer to 'ground zero' and had way more travel from China before travel got shut down than the countries that did less well, islands or not.

I cant think of any other way a virus that started in China goes global...can you? Way to totally miss the context. The countries that are doing badly are doing badly because they didn't do the steps to control the virus, and those that do well do so because they did. There's variance and some places were less lucky or had worse demographics/density/etc than others, but generally, the virus was within the borders of all these islands and if they hadn't done the steps, they'd be doing just as bad as anyone else. In the early phases the virus spread by travel, but once it's everywhere and travel has been mostly shut down for months, what matters is the local response, not blocking new infections from outside. Or in other words, it's been many months now that the source of new infections is local, not international.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/07/frequent-fast-and-cheap-is-better-than-sensitive.html

NZ did very well. One overarching theme is that islands ( NZ, Australia ( technically a continent but still surrounded by water), Iceland, Japan , South Korea ( norther border is impenetrable) can do better because they have easier ways to control access. The exception are the turds from the UK of course. I don't think most of the countries that are having trouble are having trouble because infected people are coming over the borders...