Liberty

Tread:

Some of you always demanded randomized controlled studies for HCQ, irrespective of how many studies showed positive results for HCQ. So let me present the RCT for cloth masks https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577 Conclusions This study is the first RCT of cloth masks, and the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs, particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated. Below is cited by CDC in their guidelines: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24229526/ Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a homemade mask should only be considered as a last resort to prevent droplet transmission from infected individuals, but it would be better than no protection. Ok, first, the study isn't saying what you think it's saying: "this study was to compare the efficacy of cloth masks to medical masks in hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). The null hypothesis is that there is no difference between medical masks and cloth masks." (common sense would probably bet against the null hypothesis here) There's a big difference between a healthcare worker in a hospital and John Doe on the street, and if you can get a medical-grade mask instead of a cloth mask, you should use that. No question. The goal is to reduce R0 below one, so masks could be only very partially effective (and I think they're more than that) and yet make a huge difference (especially if both/more nodes wear them, as they compound), as Taleb pointed out in one of his pieces on masks. Second, it's one piece of evidence. There's also overwhelming evidence that they work in practice for regular people who aren't in hospitals or highly risky areas, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the studies catch up with over months and years, but we don't exactly have time to wait around. So a study like this shifted my priors a little bit, but not much, and in the meantime, let's use our brains and look at what works in practice based on a mechanistic understanding of what is going on.

https://voxeu.org/article/unmasked-effect-face-masks-spread-covid-19

https://masks4all.co/what-countries-require-masks-in-public/

Thread on Chinese numbers:

Aerosols risk: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6498/1422.full

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-update-pence-vows-to-keep-opening-up-america.html "Pence vows to ‘keep opening up America’ as U.S. sets new record for coronavirus cases" "“But we’re going to keep up America again and have more days just like today,” Pence said." Mike Pence is basically this meme:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/goldman-sachs-says-a-national-mask-mandate-could-slash-infections-and-save-economy-from-a-5percent-hit.html

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1278404320279490560?s=20

Wow! It is so shocking to see someone with integrity these days. Can you imagine the pressure this guy is under to keep his mouth shut? He DOES NOT GIVE A FUCK! People like Fauci are stuck in such a dilemma (almost everybody competent in this administration was in the same position... Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly.. )... They all think "well, I can do more good on the inside than if I'm fired", so they kind of try to walk on eggs and navigate some balance between pleasing Trump and actually doing their jobs. Which isn't what you want in a crisis where people are losing their lives. You want to let your top guy actually do his job and enable him to be effective, rather than sideline him and contradict him all the time, not allow him to use all the tools, and use him as a prop in some reality show where you have to have all the spotlight on yourself and tell him what he can and can't say and whether he can do interviews or testify to congress... Count the days until Trump blames all this on Fauci... *sigh* Meanwhile, common sense looks like this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-outbreak-is-going-to-be-very-disturbing-could-top-100000-cases-a-day.html

Have a good break, enjoy the summer (but stay safe).

https://peterattiamd.com/stanleyperlman/

It is true that 30,000 cases today is not the same as 30,000 cases in April. But, the "just doing more testing" is wrong and is essentially a cover-up. Ontario is testing at roughly the same per-capita rate as Florida. And as I posted up-thread, there is actually an inverse correlation between testing in Ontario and cases. I agree that we aren't at a "gloom and doom" phase. But Texas needed to cancel elective hospital procedures because they reopened bars. This seems like a poor use of your "Rt budget". Yeah, the "they're just doing more testing" thing is just a simple one-liner cover for people who don't want to think about it and who haven't looked at the numbers. I'm seeing that in Florida it can take a couple weeks to get a test result in many places, so some stats are also behind where reality on the ground is. There's many many variables. I think there's a good chance that severity has gone down because of higher vitamin D during the summer, plus lower viral load exposure because most places have been shut down and social distanced and there's more masks, which means that even if you get it now, it's probably not as bad as in early March when those who got it were packed in public transit full of people coughing and with a fever but who didn't think much of it, not washing their hands much, etc... The fall/winter with be a test of the vitamin D hypothesis. In any case, places like Italy and France and Spain are showing new cases in the sub-1000 range after having pretty bad outbreaks, so we know exactly how to control it. The US just needs to do it, but it can't, because the president has politicized a virus and masks, and his enablers don't have enough of a spine to stand up to him and say it's bonkers and he should let the grown ups deal with the pandemic.

Tomas Pueyo: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-reopen-travel-safely-f5951dfe06f0 "Coronavirus: How to Reopen Travel Safely"

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/white-house-ordered-nih-to-cancel-coronavirus-research-funding-fauci-says/ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/health/coronavirus-lung-treatment-funding.html

Update to the chart: So if the fall does bring a second wave because of factors like lower humidity/UV/vitamin D/etc, it's mathematically going to be much worse to have that wave from a high base than from a low base. This is a bad setup...

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117 “ Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19”

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level... Of course! The Hypocrisy of the LEFT speaks once again! Justify the nobility of rioting/protesting/looting in addition to a dozen murders while spreading the disease unchecked! Beautiful! Thank you.! I'm not left, and there's plenty of hypocrisy on both side. You're the one who seems to be ignoring that fact. It just happens that the left isn't in charge of the executive branch right now.. Well, the right isn't either. Trump is just about Trump, not about any specific ideology (he used to be a democrat, right?). But if you can't tell the difference between a civil rights movement and a political rally, maybe check your biases and blind spots. There were protests in Hong Kong too.. Sometimes you have to take risks to fight for something important that may have long-lasting, historical impacts.

Aren't they planning a large political rally tomorrow? I think protesting police brutality and corruption and racism may be a cause worth taking risks for, but getting on stage to get some narcissistic supply may not rise to that level...