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Everything posted by Liberty
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He ruins anything he touches. That's his special power.
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"Private Equity: Overvalued and Overrated?"
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
https://overcast.fm/+HOFhYToVA New podcast with the author. -
Full transcript: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/full-transcript-billionaire-investor-warren-buffett-speaks-with-cnbcs-becky-quick-on-squawk-box-today.html
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"Private Equity: Overvalued and Overrated?"
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
You don't *have* to read anything. But if you want more detail on what he said on podcasts, it's here. -
"Private Equity: Overvalued and Overrated?"
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I think his point is similar to the wave of hedge funds that came out after hedge funds had great success, and then after that wave, on average they didn't have much success. In the case of PE, it was less competition leading to lower prices paid. In the case of hedge funds, it was... less competition leading to lower prices paid (or more esoteric inefficiencies left to discover and exploit, whatever they do). One good insight is enough, because it's too easy to extrapolate past results in the future. Most market participants do it. If you're not a PE expert - like I'm not - it's easy to look at historical data and think that the performance is inherent to the model rather than based on a context that has been changing. -
"Private Equity: Overvalued and Overrated?"
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Did you read the article? -
Which, at least in the US, means you don't quite fit anywhere.
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Not sure Pinker would call himself a lefty. He gets attacked by both sides. I think the left dislikes a lot of his evolutionary psychology stuff... That's when you know you're an independent thinker: Once one side accuses you of being on the other side and vice versa, and all you're trying to do is figure out what's what on a case by case basis, so you don't fit into the nice arbitrary binary tribal divide that most people slot themselves into.
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https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/02/private-equity-overvalued-overrated/ Interesting piece on PE.
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Which industries are currently over-earning?
Liberty replied to Nell-e's topic in General Discussion
This is a good point. Another great example of this is Big Tobacco You can also go back to the breaking up of the big trusts last century. This is held as a watershed antitrust moment, but if I remember correctly, the shareholders of the broken up entities did quite well. -
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/02/three-years-of-sls-development-could-buy-86-falcon-heavy-launches/
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Which industries are currently over-earning?
Liberty replied to Nell-e's topic in General Discussion
I wasn't even looking at China. In the US, you can look at telecoms/cable in the past, or healthcare, pharma, or education... All highly regulated, creating high barriers to entry favoring incumbents over entrants and not affecting profitability much (or making it better, if anything). -
Which industries are currently over-earning?
Liberty replied to Nell-e's topic in General Discussion
If anything, big tech is under earning. Google is spending billions on venture-capital-type investments and reinvesting a lot into Youtube growth, Facebook is not really monetizing Messenger, Whatsapp, and is just getting started monetizing Instagram, and ARPUs outside North America are still pretty low, Amazon is reinvesting everything into growth, same with Netflix... Pretty much any of these companies could by choice make its earnings balloon up if they wanted to, but that might not be the best long-term decision for value creation. Regulatory intervention is always tricky. Can have an impact, or can entrench you further by making it impossible for new entrants to compete because the regulation just makes it harder to operate in the industry for sub-scale players. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ -
http://tcrn.ch/2C9DcVJ Here’s a video of Elon Musk watching the Falcon Heavy take off
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Which industries are currently over-earning?
Liberty replied to Nell-e's topic in General Discussion
I think a lot of parts of the healthcare industry in the US are over-earning. The parts that are making things more efficient and keeping costs down are probably safe, but the parts that have seen rapid price inflation for decades probably will get on a new trajectory at some point. -
Why Competitive Advantages Die (Morgan Housel)
Liberty replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
And here's a recent presentation by Housel, if you want more: -
Good piece: http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/why-competitive-advantages-die/
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Sounds like you have the gambling gene. When you notice that, the proper thing to do is to stay away from gambling.
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That's a great view. Direct youtube link: https://youtu.be/Z_kfM-BmVzQ?t=13s
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Meet Mr Money Mustache who retired at the age 30
Liberty replied to shalab's topic in General Discussion
New post about installing solar panels on his roof: http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/02/07/diy-solar-power/ -
LOL what about the guy in the pilot's seat on the rocket module trying to land it. What about the guy driving the roadster!
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The platform is a drone ship, nobody's on board.
