Liberty

Gavin Baker: https://medium.com/@gavin_baker/viruses-recessions-imagination-and-the-end-of-the-beginning-1b6342e61390 Working Paper, Eliminating COVID-19: A Community-based Analysis: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e737b95403f772d8ce0e04a/1584626591711/CommunityPrevention.pdf

"The first coronavirus case in the U.S. and South Korea was detected on the same day. By late January, Seoul had medical companies starting to work on a diagnostic test — one was approved a week later. Today, the U.S. isn’t even close to meeting test demand" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW Peter Attia: "Just received word from an ICU doctor at a small NY hospital: They are officially out of ventilators and are now double venting patients with COVID (using the same ventilator for 2 infected patients). Do everything possible to avoid infection. PLEASE ISOLATE as best you can." Testing works: "How one small town at the center of the outbreak has cut infections virtually to zero: test all 3,300 in town, isolate the 3 percent who tested positive. Infection rate 10 days later down to .3 percent."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 “ Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China”

Politicians try to win votes. They say things that they think will be popular. Doesn't have to make too much financial sense.

Youtube video:

Bill Gates doing an AMA on Reddit right now: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/viral-social-media-posts-offer-false-coronavirus-tips/

A more optimistic take: https://compoundadvisors.com/2020/apocalypse-interrupted

Thank you. It offers an answer to the challenge posed earlier with regards to possible Diamond Princess deaths that went uncounted. It basically suggests that the mortality rate of COVID-19 amongst the general population would still be lower than 1% because the population on that cruise ship was much older on average. Yes, but very small sample size. Only 7 deaths on that ship. Not the most reliable stats. Obviously I hope the death rate is very low, but let's also remember that many of those who don't die can get very serious pneumonia and have permanent lung damage, including younger people. What's happening now with the healthcare system in Italy shows that it should be taken very seriously and not allowed to spread quickly. I recommend this interview with a doctor there: https://overcast.fm/+LHycp1NFU

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html "An extremely simple chart showing how important timing is with exponential growth. You can stop one COVID-19 infection today and avert 2,400 infections in the next 30 days OR wait one week to stop the infection and avert 600 cases. The power of just one"

Interview with Italian doctor: https://overcast.fm/+LHycp1NFU

The market is forward-looking. As long as there's no testing going on, nothing was shutdown and hospitals didn't have more peak capacity and measures in place to deal with this (fever clinics, etc), then it was going to get much much worse. Now that a lot of the world is starting to react, the trajectory is probably being shifted in a better direction, but a lot of damage has already been done by the slow and inept reaction. Remember, what we're seeing now are infections from many days ago, there's a lag in the system, and a lot of symptomatic people were running around spreading it.

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researcher-in-Marseille-posts-successful-Covid-19-coronavirus-drug-trial-results

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success Also: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/16/cdc-who-coronavirus-tests/ "By the end of February, a Berlin start-up had produced 1.4 million tests for coronavirus to ship around the world. The US said no thanks; we can create our own. "

Study: 'Relationship between Vitamin D status and Viral Pneumonia in Children': https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/ped.2017.0750?journalCode=ped& Study: 'Association between serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D and community-acquired pneumonia: a case-control study': https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5692194/

Potential for exponential decline if we do this right: Edit: Bill Gates TED Talk from 5 years ago (excerpt about risk of pandemic):

Interactive infection model (can teak various parameters and see what happens): https://meltingasphalt.com/interactive/outbreak/

Liberty, where do you buy 5K-10K doses in Canada? I checked local stores and amazon.ca. Reputable brands don't go higher than 1K. I can buy 5K-10K on amazon.com but I'd rather not pay international shipping fee. You can just take multiple 1Ks, that does fine too. But if I want 5ks, I get them from the US, shipping fee's pretty low for such small items.

Scott Gottlied thread:

Vitamin D deficiency has also long been theorized as one of the factors causing influenza seasonality. See, for example, this paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870528/ https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/ On the other hand, some studies have suggested that Vitamin D supplementation doesn't do much to present viral respiratory tract infections: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28719693 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26951286 As you note, Vitamin D is very cheap. You can also google to find recent evidence regarding the levels of supplementation that might lead to toxicity (tl;dr -- there appears to be plenty of room to supplement without causing any significant problems). Based on this research, I've been supplementing with Vitamin D since last fall with good results re common cold symptoms (which are an issue with two small children in the house). Of course, n=1 doesn't provide much evidence of anything. Just FYI, there is some evidence that very high doses of Vitamin D can cause/contribute to kidney stones: http://www.vitamindsupplement.com/vitamin-d-and-kidney-stones/ So, don't overdo it, don't mega dose thinking it can't have negative effects. (Anecdotally, I've had kidney stone symptoms that seemed to be correlated with high Vitamin D doses. YMMV.) What was the "high dose" that you were taking? I've read that natural exposure to the sun during summer can often give you an equivalent dose to 15-20k UIs, the body seems pretty good at dealing with higher doses (better than lower doses). It certainly depends where you live, but here in Canada, for someone who's inside the house most of the day, I'm probably getting little naturally so supplementation makes a lot of sense. I've been doing mostly 5k uis during summer and 8-10k uis during winter, probably for about 15 years.

Theorizing about sunshine-hours in various locations and lethality (based on little data, but interesting line of thought since Vitamin D supplementation is inexpensive and not-risky, so very asymmetric): https://simonsarris.com/sunlight

Cloroquine: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub Also: https://apnews.com/ce014d94b64e98b7203b873e56f80e9a

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/opinion/trump-coronavirus.html Also, debunking of the ibuprofen thing that circulated: https://www.thejournal.ie/ibuprofen-cuh-coronavirus-whatsapp-5047311-Mar2020/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/15/business/economy/coronavirus-worker-risk.html Nice chart showing proximity to diseases and proximity to others by profession. Dentists, be careful out there.

South Korea's approach was very similar to Wuhan's from what I heard. Lots and lots and lots of testing and temperature taking everywhere, separating family members who are infected rather than at-home quarantine, etc. It wasnt just extensive testing, there was a lot of shutting down of things and shutdowns too,