UhuruPeak
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Posts posted by UhuruPeak
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how come there is no negative #? :)
FFH is going down no matter what the market does.
FFH is uncorrelated to the market. It goes down when Sanjeev diets, and goes up when he lunches :)
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If the control point I make above is total nonsense, then you should not hesitate in taking my $500 dollars or if you prefer absolute control, you will refuse my offer.
Jack, I really don't think the issue is control. I really really really don't think it is. Can we put this issue to rest?
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It's borderline disgusting how disrespectful some have been to Sanjeev about the ads. I'm blown away.
I'd just take the "borderline" out if I may - And if I were a moderator, we'd have a couple fewer members
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Fuck it. It's like talking to a brick wall.
Guys, can we chill? Where is this board going, with a bunch of folks being particularly testy for the past couple of months, a new poster calling Sanjeev "dude", and now even the F____ word flying?
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I'll join the fray.... it looks to me that you have a problem with that woman. Or rather, she has a problem with you. More likely even, she has a problem with herself: she's gotta be miserable.
I am sorry Partner, this can't be fun. Still, I am sure that others give you just credit and ultimately you know deep inside that you've done good. Unlike Ucc and others, I haven't met you personally. I still feel like I know you (and a bunch of others on this board) for having spent so many hours "cyber-together"; as I was telling Sanjeev & ericopoly a few weeks back, I think of ya'll as my gang, some extended part of myself.
You are a good man, and you will find something positive to do next - with this not-for-profit or another. Don't let this keep you from donating your time and energy to causes that you believe in. I'm sure you won't.
Amitiés,
UhuruPeak
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lol - thx
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Could be Tony Nicely at Geico - Warren is not the only one making investment decisions at BRK
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I guess you have your answer - yes I'm completely off my rockers. Geez, I need a beer!
I'll try to redeem myself a little by giving you the high level view on how to look at power producers: they are basically call options on the price of power - which more often than not depends on the price of natural gas. So basically, NRG & CEG & EXC & others will rise at the same time that CHK (Chesapeake) or other Natural Gas producers would rise. The power producers are often regulated and therefore operate in a "cost+" environment, but even the ones who are mostly unregulated (in Texas for example) will still have less volatile earnings than the pure NG producers. In other words, the leverage is typically less and you can sleep a little better. Now, buying any of these companies is like buying up a big oil or big mining company: you need to believe that Oil, Gas, Uranium, Copper or Gold is going up. I bought a lot of gold/silver miners a few years ago, but got out a year or two ago when the story of the metal didn't look as compelling to me anymore. I still think the Natural Gas story is good, the current price doesn't strike me as sustainable (we are at the lowest prices since 2002, before even taking inflation into account). I don't have the same confidence level about the current prices of Oil, Copper or Gold - it may be the same, or it may not.
Ben, thanks again for the public spanking! 8)
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Thx for making me look stupid Ben, now everyone knows! :) Ok, so I did miss it. Now, did BRK buy 126,700 shares for $7,200,000? Besides the fact that it doesn't look like a Buffett transaction, it also comes to almost $57 a share, or higher than it has ever been according to Yahoo's chart. Looks like I am missing something else too :-[
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I don't think BRK owned NRG; they made an offer on Constellation, or "CEG". NRG is about to be purchased by Exellon (EXC) for 0.485 share of EXC; the market has constantly discounted the NRG shares between 10 and 20% and I am completely stumped by this discount; talking to people in the industry doesn't help, many are just clueless as well.
NRG is one of the 4 finalists to get federal loan money to build a new nuclear plan; finally, they just snapped the second biggest electric retailer in Texas (Reliant Energy) for a mere $287M + working capital, or less than $400M total; my own estimate of what such a retailer should trade for is closer to $2 or $3B - say the value went down significantly of late due to higher cost of capital and repricing or risk and everything, the sale price still doesn't make any sense to me. So in other words, NRG actually showed a significant IV gain very recently. If EXC manages to snap up NRG (51% of the shares have already been tendered, and some Federal regulators just gave their approval yesterday), it will be a steal as well.
The main thing that weights on all these power producers' stock price is the price of power: as the economy has slowed down, the demand for electricity has dropped everywhere, putting pressure on producers' profitability (but helping the retailers', Reliant Energy among others). Sooner or later though, the price of power will go back up and the stock price should follow.
Disclosure: long another power producer (RRI Energy); I haven't pulled the trigger on NRG because I just suck my thumb all day long but I'll kick myself if I let it slip.
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Sanjeev, that was a great post. the story about that car salesman is heart-wrenching too, wow!
Mandeep,
I feel like this is not the time to buy small stuff that I understand, isn't this a once in a lifetime opty to buy great businesses cheaply?
The "once in a lifetime opty to buy great businesses cheaply" was two months ago. Or rather, the "early 2009 once in a lifetime opty" was two months ago. Just like all these "1 in 100 years events" seemingly tend to happen every 2-3 years, I find that there are quite a few "once in a lifetime opty" around. Just in the 3-4 years that I've been active on this board (I joined among the very first but was a 'sleeper' early on), I've seen "once in a lifetime opty" a few times in FFH (around $100, then $150, then last year and recently again at $210...), once in Sino-Forest ($4 to $20+ in a couple of years), once in Quadra Mining ($8 to $28 in a year), once in Constellation last fall when it dipped briefly to $15 when Buffett offered to buy it for above $25... I'm not even going to mention the other ones I didn't pay attention too and didn't play.
Don't worry about the "opty in a lifetime" that you just let slip. Learn about investing, learn from some of the great posters here, and take it easy - new opportunities will come soon enough. Do like Buffett, wait for the fat pitches :)
Good luck!
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Cardboard,
If this rally (the whole crisis frankly) has taught me something, it is that I don't understand the market's behavior - or rather, such powerful interests are at play right now that the market isn't allowed to behave like its normal irrational self.
My money is on the market going south again, I am still not convinced we have seen the lows. I am not shorting at the moment (got burned every single time I tried that), but am 50% cash in my non-taxable accounts and 100% in my own 401(k) with wife's holding plenty of short term bonds and cash. If the markets goes up, I lose some; if it tanks, I win some; meanwhile, I sleep soundly in accepting that I'm out of my league this time around.
Good luck to you and to others -
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Hey, I could do that!
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Most if not all have it available online on their website, typically under the "Investor" section.
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Leigh Robinson's Landlording is a great book in my opinion; I read it cover-to-cover back when I was learning about Real Estate, and thoroughly enjoyed it. I also learned a lot on the real estate board at fool.com back in the early 2000s. There was a poster there, Jiml8, who owned a few dozen properties and eventually sold them all to focus on his landlording software business. I eventually met him in person and owe him a lot. If you have access to fool.com and Jiml8 still posts, do read him and ask tons of questions.
Now, for a few quick lessons learned: you want the monthly rent to be at least 1% of the property cost - anything less and you are looking at a regular cash outflow. Money is made when you purchase the property; I was lucky to find an area where rents were 1.2 to 1.5% of the purchase price, and I have generally made money over time in spite of not raising the rents for over 5 years (I have been sloppy of late). Over time, my mortgage gets paid of and the price of the property will eventually rise; I have no idea what the market for them is right now but don't much care - they are not for sale anyway.
I also agree with the previous poster that renting to a professional is not necessarily the best thing to do - reducing turnover is very important, and is actually part of why we didn't raise the rents for a long time: our prices were a little above market initially and we found ourselves constantly having to find new tenants; now that we are priced under market, our tenants just stay for a few years at a time. This is piece of mind, less work, and ultimately good business. Finally, maintenance is ultimately much cheaper than repairs :)
PS: I would be very worried if my "business plan" required the property value to increase by 4% a year. In my book, capital appreciation will be the sweetener (if it happens at all), absolutely not the core investment rationale
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Ucc,
I know I have DEFINITELY become anchored to some prices. WFC for example... I won't touch it even at $20 and probably not at $15. I passed up on it at $8 because it was "outside my circle of competence", or rather because I was too chicken - now I have non-buyers' regret. While the circle of competence argument is relatively valid on this one, I'd have the same story on other companies that I understand much better, such as power producer NRG for example.
Who ever said we investment geniuses were completely rational? :o
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Buffett apparently mentioned Galbraith's 1929 crisis book (ok, so I have a brain freeze, but I think that's the book)
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same here
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I sold have my positions yesterday in non-taxable accounts. Not sure what to do in taxable account however, probably nothing as usual (and I'll underperform in that account as usual, thus is my curse)
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Oh, now something that's not so good I guess: by "applauding" your post, I notice your other posts also benefit from the karma - much like the number of posts updates automatically when you write a new one. Was this intended?
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Sanj,
I just did "smite" on your post just above, and the count of "Karma" went down from 3 to 2. No offense intended obviously, I just just testing the functionality. Perhaps I should just applaud you to even it out? ;D
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Thx Grenville
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Thx Snailslug. While I have never looked at Sears from an investing pov (I own and root for WMT, which I believe will keep destroying their competitors), I do wish Lampert the best and hope Sears will find a profitable niche going forward
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But of course, all this assumes the market prices remain where they are. So when some of us board members argue that the market increase since March 9 is not the real thing, that prices will come down... we also need to be consistent and accept that FFH's book "value" may come down again.
I don't think the market's level is completely sustainable; I don't like adjusting FFH's and BRK's book values based on day-to-day or even quarter-to-quarter stock price changes; and I don't want to mentally value FFH higher today than I would have 2 months ago.
UhuruPeak, massively long FFH, long BRK and long a POS in the utility industry that would benefit greatly from higher economic output and power prices.
natural gas price
in General Discussion
Posted
The 12M curve is about $2 higher than the spot right now, which is historically pretty high. That curve has also been in a bottoming process since April (recent lows on 4/27) and has made higher highs and higher lows since then. It still remains cheap compared to the past few years, but NG was between $1 and $2 for much of the 90s.
Much will depend on whether we build more NG power plants, and NG cars & trucks. For right now, the price is probably too low but playing it profitably is not a given imo due to the strong contango already mentioned on this thread