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UhuruPeak

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Posts posted by UhuruPeak

  1. I disagree that 99% of the folks cannot beat the market by 5% or more by using the right strategy.  T

    Packer is this mathematically possible? I think I know what you re trying to say, but 99% of us can t be above average. I agree that if you have the right temperament + follow the right strategy then it is possible.

    Couple of things:

    1. I don't think Packer necessarily meant that 99% could beat the average by 5%; it could also be read as saying that more than 1% can beat by more than 5%. I will chose to remain agnostic either way

    2. It could be mathematically possible if the 99% are small holders on their directly investable assets and the 1% where the large guys and huge funds investing the rest of 'our' money (since 'we' ultimately own everything).

  2. I bought a foreclosed home and fixed it up. So no rent/mortgage to speak of. My girlfriend stays with me and we share expenses. I try to minimize costs for things that I don't really need or want, like cable and no home phone. It's pretty easy to do. Although, admittedly, my lifestyle isn't for everyone. By the way, when my savings rate of 90%, I am including 401k matches.

     

    Let's see if the discussion gets as heated with the question I'm about to ask  8): how do you guys calculate a savings rate? I always did it by looking at how much savings & debt principal I'd pay (+ 401(k) match or even pension, why not) and divide this by my gross salary.  So just by virtue of the taxes I can't see how any one gets above ~80% even without spending a dime on anything.

    How do you guys calculate this?

  3. I recently submitted quotes for car insurance; the first time I started on geico.com, they followed-up with a few emails and eventually stopped.  This time around, I went through with the quote so I could compare their pricing.  Once again though, I didn't act and purchase the policy.  Imagine my surprise when, just a few short days later, I receive a Geico letter at my home, with my name/address handwritten (more personal), with the following text:

     

    Can we turn that quote into a policy?

     

    You may not have known it at the time you got your GEICO.COM quote but you can buy your policy through Your Local GEICO Office and get a real live agent for no extra charge.  That’s right, the cost won’t be any higher than your on-line quote and we may even be able to save you money by finding additional discounts.

     

    Please give us a call as (XXX) XXX-XXXX to get your policy started.  We’ll need your vehicle’s VIN number(s) and driver’s licence numbers for all drivers in your household.  Or if you’re the face to face type, you can stop by our office at XXX. If you’re not in our neighborhood, no problem – we set up most of our policies over the phone and can email or fax your temporary proof of insurance immediately.

    We hope to hear from you soon!

    Your Local Xxx GEICO Store

    Make sure and ask about our homeowners, renters and motorcycle insurance!!!!!

    The bolding and underline is exactly as presented in the letter - which I find very very good.  So - I don't know if I will end up purchasing the policy from them, since one of the insurance brokers I contacted came back with an excellent quote that I need to review in more detail, but so far they are extremely competitive.  This letter w/ handwritten name/address just blew me away.

     

    Disclosure: I do not own any BRK at this moment though I may buy a share to qualify for the investor discount without feeling like a cheat.

  4. 0

     

    Same

    But will go up soon enough

     

     

    if you guys don't mind me asking, why is that the case?

     

    I can't speak to them, but in the bigger picture there's this:

    1. some fear the markets will start the next leg down (I don't think that's the reason)

    2. large seasonal unknown due to the Hurricane season (I think it is it)

    3. dividend out in January, buy on the ex- date to minimize taxes (could be part of it?)

  5. The Mayans have already scheduled the major extinction event for  Dec 21 2012... this must be the start of the quantitative easing.

     

    Why do they always schedule these things on the shortest most depressing day of the year.  I hope they schedule the next extinction event after that for summer holidays, or around early June, so we can have some time off.

     

    Well, the Mayans lived in the Southern Hemisphere so they got it right scheduling it for their summer. ;D

     

    oec, I think you are confusing the Mayans with the Incas.  Must be the extra gravitational pull from the asteroids  :D

     

    Oops! Hope my investing skills are better than my history or geography - otherwise, I'm in deep s....

    Could be worse, you at least had the continent right!  ;D

  6. Our income has increased a bit over the past 3 years, between promotions for me and more hours/higher pay for the significant other; expenses have increased significantly too however, to the point where net monthly savings have dropped; we have a good deal less debt however, and net worth has roughly doubled.

    Do I feel better off? Nope, for two reasons: (1) expenses have gone up faster than revenue (even though it is largely self inflicted through paying for private school in particular), (2) portfolio has gone down a little from peak a few months ago, and (3) less happy at work. Does it make sense that I don't feel better off? probably not!  Descartes (French philosopher from the 17th century) was wrong, human beings aren't rational  ;D

  7. Parsard -- it pains me to say this given your passion.

    ... you come across as a complete blowhard...

     

    This is getting bad... Munger, do you need to use this kind of language? It frankly doesn't do much for the discussion!

     

    Prechter and the long wave & all... I agree it is not technical analysis; in my mind, it really derives from Schumpeter's K-wave; the guy was a Russian macro-economist who paid dearly for arguing that capitalism wouldn't implode but just heal itself back in the 1920.  So, this is macro-economy, right? but then, long waves of 17 years (or 35 yrs round-trip) also correspond to the amount of time we spend working/accumulating. In other words, by the time we learn something, we won't use it again until we are too old - that's where I think this aligns with investment psychology, which more and more folks seem to believe in, the theorists like Richard Thaler and the practitioners like James Montier or Michael Mauboussin. No it is not fundamental analysis, but a basic understanding helps a lot to make decisions (or to know that a 'bubble' (e.g., gold) may have yet to run much higher). Value investors always buy too early and sell to early, right? Basic understanding of human & market psychology could help. Does it make us "technical analysts" just because we don't only believe in value investing? perhaps it does, but we can still be good people.

    Sanj, I hope I didn't lose you on this ;) Munger, please no blowhard-thingy anymore.

     

     

    Best,

    UhuruPeak

  8. Ok, for those of us who are kind of ignorant of American restaurant culture... what is the difference between a drive thru and a drive in?  why would a drive in be like having 50 drive thrus?  Drive thrus seem like they take up very little space, I'm not sure how something could take up less...

     

    Let me try to explain; bear with me if I am just confusing you even more - and any one feel free to correct me if you think I err.

     

    Drive-thru you have not in Europe, you typically drive around the restaurant (or coffee shop), order at one station, pay at a second and get the food at a 3rd one, all to reduce the time spent at each station and allow a long line of cars to move forward.  Takes little space since you are going behind the back of the restaurant, but you can only have one drive thru per restaurant (banks can have a battery of them, but that's a different story).

    Drive-in, you park the car, order/pay/get the food all in the same place.  The difference is that you can have 20 or 50 cars parked at the same time and all getting served.  The "restaurant" often doesn't even allow the customers to get inside, and any place would need a parking so you are looking at the same area that a normal burger joint would take, but the actual building is tiny (just the kitchen basically) and customers usually don't stay around to eat in their car.  Picture the scantily clad waitresses on rollers that you must have seen tons of times.  In the US, Sonic is the big dog in this area, there aren't too many big chains doing this.

     

    Do I make sense? Ask away if still confused.

     

    Best,

    UhuruPeak

  9. My point is it's University, whether you answer a question or not, no big deal ,move on. It ain't high school I remember my teachers saying in University nobody cares whether you do your homework or not, skip class or show up, pass or fail and it's true, at least in Canada.

    This is not just "University", but one of the very best (finance) MBA institutions in the world.  Once you've done that, you can't get any farther in the business world w/o doing some academic stuff (PhD/DBA).  That, AND he comes from that place.  I know I tend to be more demanding of people coming from my own Alma Matter even though I was a total slacker back then.

     

    I haven't seen the video but I can relate

  10. Opihiman,

     

    Just checking here, but are you saying you believe anyone over the age of 50 has lived long enough, and therefore they should be afforded less healthcare than those younger? 

     

    Doesn't that sound exactly like being in favor of "death panels"?  How else would you determine the level of health care that these oldsters over 50 deserve to get?

     

    You are correct; the conservative party was clearly upset by possible "death panels".  I believe Sarah Pain-in-the-ass was harping incessantly about it in the media.

     

    I'm a medical physician in California, and I see this kind of irrational fear of death in society all the time.  Health care workers, though, have a ribald sense of humor when it comes to mortality.  I'm not sure if this is a self defense mechanism of ours, or if we're truly desensitized to this crap.  Regardless, I think fear of death does society great injustice.  It's unfortunate that the very young can die tragically, but if you're over 50 years of age, I think you've had enough time on this planet.  You just have know this at a very young age, and live every day like it will be your last.  Who knows, though.  Maybe our society is coming to grips with this idea.  In the past few months, I've read many articles similar to the one posted by the OP. 

     

    I hope the discussion won't degenerate.  I enjoyed the article enormously, and will make sure to have/trigger this discussion with my family (spouse, parents...)

  11. ...when I am driving by at lunch to get a $2 slice of pizza and a water(yes,you can call me frugal)...

     

    You mean you spend $2 for lunch AND you take the car?  Wow, you big spender! a bowl of spaghetti or rice + 'some' tomato sauce (home made while you're at it) or a can of beans will set you back less than half a buck.

     

     

    Ok, more seriously now - I have gone to a Red Robin a few times, and always enjoyed the experience - though not the bill.  Always busy, and decor modern yet timeless enough that it probably doesn't need to be revamped all the time.  I can see that it would be an interesting LT investment at the right price even if I'm too cheap to go often.

  12. I did a blind test many years ago, and knew which was which but had to admit to myself that I liked the Pepsi taste better, even though I was (and remain) a Coke guy.  What I didn't know then but was told later was that these blind tastes are done with 'warm' beverages. Since the two have differing levels of sweetness, it impacts the average answer - and most people (at least in North America) like their drinks to be ice-cold.

     

    Finally - and I don't know if it was a fluke - the testers did not update their results after we came.  Say it advertised "43 prefer Pepsi, 28 prefer Coke".  My friend liked Coke better, I liked Pepsi.  The score-sheet should have said "44 prefer Pepsi, 29 prefer Coke", which would have the result of slightly decreasing the comparative advantage (%) liking Pepsi over Coke; yet they did not update this and kept their 43 & 28 numbers.  I have always wondered how truthful their ad was as a result.

     

    Again - I like Pepsi better, but will always chose Coke if given the choice.  Well actually, I like Dr. Pepper best and both companies sell that product through their bottling operations :)

  13. Thanks Vinod.

    Looking at the threats on pp3-4, I don't see mention of the Aldi (Germany) or Leader Price (France) companies though.  Aldi in particular is now present in the US, and its low-cost culture is second to none; I did shop in some of their stores in my youth,  it is not pretty but their prices are rock bottom.  Basically, I won't dream of going back unless I need to start my financial life from scratch again, but part of it is that I've been spoiled with the taste of (comparative) luxury available at Target or Costco  ;D

    Did you lump them with the Dollar stores, or perhaps the grocery stores? I think they deserve their own category and could become players in the ultra low cost segment.

  14. I'll second twacowfca, good stuff (& time consuming I'm sure). I hope you won't mind what I just did though: since the BV has increased so much over the time period, I changed the left axis to a log; it shows that FFH's BV is still significantly more volatile than either of the two others' (we all knew that), but BRK & L look more similar now - which was not obvious from the original chart.

     

    Thx again for sharing this work!

  15. Which brings me to whether I want to waste my money subscribing to this or not.  I need to sit down and work out if I have made all my initial investment back or am at least close to it. 

     

    Come on Al, you know better than that - the market doesn't care what you cost is.  I know I'm not teaching this old trick to ye old monkey! ;)

  16. Yes, good news. Expect that Scottrade will also convert in due course.  Interesting that the process took two weeks to occur. 

     

    I spoke w/ a broker at Scottrade yesterday, and was told it would convert sometime between today and Thursday.

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