Valuebo

Doesn't show yet for PPR.TO though... ;(

Why would a billion+ people want to own bitcoin other than pure greed? It can't handle a decent amount of transaction, you have fucked up and unregulated middle men, insane transaction costs, risk of theft and loss, energy consumption issues, it is no store of value due to extreme volatility and worst of all: supply isn't limited at all. Greed driven supply will meet greed driven demand until it reaches a tipping point where supply > demand. Suddenly you will have people realizing unregulated crypto markets are far more inflationary than the centralized monetary system already in place. (A system people don't want but truly need in one way or another to keep some sanity in the financial markets.) Anyway, this dynamic will get really interesting combined with retail speculators taking on margin loans, newly created derivates multiplying the market size, ... Forced selling as sentiment shifts completely will result in a beautiful death spiral for most, if not all, current crypto's IMO. We can only hope this occurs sooner rather than later as the impact on our economy of this crypto K.O. would only increase as crypto popularity increases. Other hits to bitcoin simply weren't fatal because these things take time to mature. The scarcity argument was somewhat valid at the time and structural issues were still under the radar. To break mania's you need the creation of a entire bullshit industry that offers enough supply to act as a counterweight to stop this pure fucking madness. Looking at some behavioral issues is telling enough. For instance, most people interested in speculating in crypto's seem to be between the age of 18 and 35. Corresponds nicely with the entire adult population that was too young to experience the Dotcom mania. No, it's not that older people aren't capable of understanding Bitcoin because of age or because they lack the technological knowledge. The collective mindset of this group of people is simply more fearful and sensible. They have wised up (a little) and sooner or later an entire new generation is going to receive the same painful lesson they learned too once upon a time.

Covfefe

Great letter, thanks!

No idea but if I had to guess: IT related problem or attack. Amazing how we keep it all afloat, especially at old financials where hardly anyone knows how systems work and how they are connected. Patching the patches of the patches... A complex world creates complex problems.

Congratz Keith. I wish you all the best with your fund. Extremely confident you (and your investors) will do great!

To be fair, people may have been buying BRK at $70 whenever that was. And people are looking for investments now when BRK is at $16X and may still be relatively attractive compared to other opportunities in the market. Sure it's not gonna return 20% or probably even 15% a year. But it could return annual 10% and outperform the market (and a lot of other ideas). Yes, of course. I just meant that people didn't even discuss the much bigger margin of safety back then except for a few members. Now they are starting to compare it versus BV of tech companies and making silly assumptions concerning what Buffett thinks BRK is worth.

No, he doesn't think that. What happened with this forum? Or is it mainly this thread? Where we you guys when berkshire was trading at $70 and it's BV had much more margin of safety?

Just saying "Hey fuck it, let's buy these mega large cap companies that have outperformed massively and call it a day." is not a strategy, it's just following the crowd imo. The general market knows these companies are scalable monopolies, that's why they are priced the way they are. In fact, over time I believe most face plenty of regulation risks. But we'll see. This should remind people of the Nifty Fifty really. As with those, returns can be very satisfactory for most of those stocks over the long run. That doesn't mean buying them now at current valuations is the best way to go at it. I'm not willing to take that bet at market highs, in a low rate environment, great economy and a super low volatility period. No thanks! Better opportunities might be around the corner and if they don't show that is also fine. No need to swing when feeling uncertain. Anyway, very few people are able to withstand the pain of losing most of their wealth during 5-10 years because they paid too much over the short term. edit: To be clear, I otherwise agree with your point that investors often make it too hard. Most just can't make it investing in mediocre companies. I too wished I focused on quality a little more than pure valuation in the past. Being wrong isn't as painful either. That said, some people just like to read obscure fillings. Rare creatures but they exist! ;)

While I agree, you have to put things in the correct context. The guy is 86 years old. Good luck finding any person who was alive in the thirties who is perfectly aligned with today's standards and ethics. Munger too can say stupid shit IMO, but I can place it given how he lived most his life in a completely different world.

The issue is that they positioned themselves as if their view was the only possible outcome. People, including myself, have been saying this for years.

US Shiller PE at 27+ and they call it a day on the hedges, brilliant! Even adjusted for current low rates the US market is expensive by any standard. If they expect rates to rise (hence why the lower duration of bond portfolio), why are they now dropping the hedges? Do they assume rates will rise just a little, hardly impacting stock valuations in the US? If so, why did they hedge in the first place when valuations were so much lower. Deflation fears were covered by that other bet so that's no excuse really. It all doesn't make sense to me as they still can't admit the mistakes that were made. Serious case of intellectual dishonesty imo. Probably my favorite example of how a track record can be completely irrelevant. Especially if it is based on above average risk taking, a low starting capital base and pure dumb luck. Imo FFH has had all three at one point in its history. Probably would have been better off today without the macro plays of the last 10+ years, including the winnings of '08-'09...

Hah. Just awesome.

You mean a negative impact right? ???

Probably not but if he just held BRK and AIG, the best he could hope for in the next few years was 10-15%/year and he'd never regain his superstar status. He probably feels like he has no other option and has to go all-in on them in order to prove himself. If he sells his losers, he is basically already saying he was wrong and who is going to buy and hold his fund when he holds a few large caps that aren't that far of fair value? Many of his investors were lured in precisely because he aims for big concentrated positions in contrarian names. At least now he has a shot (in his mind, I don't have an opinion other than that they aren't 1 foot hurdles!). As someone said, they aren't exactly positions that one just jumps in and out of. You're right. If the GSE's go to zero they can short the rest and launch an easy attack. Looks to me like he is fucked - at least for a while - if one of the three goes kaboom before one of the others turn around. Great strategy!

GM had an electrical car in 1996 and they can freely copy Tesla now as it's all out there. Yet the very best they can come up with 5 years after the Model S was released, is something that looks like a "supersized 2013 Toyota Yaris" with a 200 miles range? And the crowd goes wild!!!! Tesla did it better 5 years ago and they did it with a car that you actually would want to be seen in. Sure, it was and still is more expensive than the Bolt but that is what they are planning to change with the Model 3 of course. Tesla has amassed some insane brand value despite it's low current revenues. I think people here are understating the effect this can have on buying decisions. They really don't need to crush the competition to do well. I believe there is room for them with decent margins regardless of what the big brands do. Whether the stock at this point is a good investment is a completely different question. Also, on ecosystems and so on: Self driving cars combined with an automated taxi service for friends, family or even random internet strangers would make for a crazy selling point and you might even be able to build a decent ecosystem on that basis. Also on high sticker price: Imagine offering decent financing like oddballstocks mentioned with the option to sign in on the rental service in one go, lowering the monthly payment but Tesla taking a fat commission per taxi shift. Etc etc. Idk, maybe they fail horribly in the next few years but I'm going to assume creating the highest rated, safest and most technologically advanced car ever simply wasn't a fluke.

Don't put your time in these long-winded posts that people will only take apart to misinterpret or use against you (now or later). There is no need to defend yourself. Do what you do and keep learning. At least you are trying as hard as you can. People twice or thrice your age are calling you a little odd or promotional, so what? I can relate with them as well but I sure wouldn't want to read back many of the things I wrote 10 years ago! And I'm full of shit and far less intelligent than many here! Also 'theperksofbeinganINTJ', imo you should dive deeper into psychology if you are still so hung up on MBTI. I'd view it as an indication of someone's personality and little more. Most people fall somewhere in between all those parameters. It's also a bit like astrology, you'll see a lot of resemblances with your personality regardless of what profile/sign they present you. Anyhow, just wanted to say that it doesn't define who you are and that people change over time. Presenting yourself so strongly as an 'INTJ' is definitely one of those things that people would find "odd". Good luck with your future endeavours.

I still don't understand who are the "ordinary Americans" in the "0% tax bracket actually paying a 60% tax rate." Median family wealth in the US is about $80,000, including all forms of wealth such as retirement plans and equity in your primary residence. (http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/27/news/economy/wealth-diverse/). The "ordinary American" does not own an investment property or anything close to it. Which is seriously sad considering how rich the US is "on average". This is by far one of the most urgent economic matters for the US. But I guess propagating "the American dream" as something achievable for everyone is more important.

Haha! Ok, that last post made it too obvious. ;D Shit Scott, I believe you had a few doubting your sanity for a second. Good job. 8)

Comedy Gold. I guess.

God damn this mess... F*cked up! Frankenstein just lost an arm, let's see if he gets decapitated.

Obviously the public that populates the website isn't generally going to be made up out of experts, especially when you just did an AMA on Reddit. A public website where anyone with an internet connection can claim to know something about a subject isn't going to yield great results. Especially if the questions aren't properly formulated and thought out. I think it has potential no matter how poor these public projects might seem now. I don't know how it's different from prediction markets, Tetlock or Good Judgement as I haven't heard from them yet. :) Just thought the subject was interesting in and of itself, regardless of what the used platform is.

On second thought I was thinking that I might be overstating the potential here. It sounds nice in theory but aren't fund managers after all performing barely below the market after considering fees, taxes and costs? And the stock market is as big as it gets if you are looking for a group of experts. But then it hit me that these fund managers are buying stocks that are already valued by the market. The market has already given it's stamp of (dis)approval so it's pretty normal for fund managers to do ok as long as they hold enough positions. (I can hear some say "Duuh".. :D) So basically what they should do to see what the markets alpha over knowledgeable fund managers is, is giving fund managers a blind test. Make them value companies without looking at the current stock price and see how they perform over time (don't ask me the specifics). Wouldn't that give us an indication of what a market is capable of? In any field? Or is it not transmittable to other fields? I know the above is likely obvious for many here but my thoughts were slow to catch on tonight, it's almost 3:00 AM here after all.

Hi all. Anyone heard of UNU before? Found out about the project through reddit. Also see: http://unanimous.ai/what-is-si/ This is how it works. One user asks a group of (knowledgeable) people a question on a certain subject. This group can then in real time vote their answer. The difference with a simple poll is that this group of people can see what others are going to vote. So as a member of the group you are able to change your answer on the question in real time depending on what others are thinking. Other than that it is completely anonymous so no input for biases there. Apparently it is able to consistently outperform the individuals that make up the groups (often experts in their field). This immediately reminded me of how the stock market as a whole works where experts are basically making real time decisions based on the buy and sell decisions of other experts. Often also increasing the accuracy of the predictions as the group of experts gets bigger (small vs large caps). It directly shows why - in general - it is silly to try to outperform the market as such markets actually seems to transcend the pure knowledge of the group on a superficial level. It is extremely rare to go beyond that level of understanding of complex situations as an individual. Pretty interesting. Imagine what could be done if they could finetune this process further so that we can organize groups of thousands of experts in specific fields that can answer questions on hot issues in today's society. Would we see much improved accuracy and results? You could basically hand out knowledge, let a group study it and then let them come back together online to do their magic. I'm probably seeing this way too simplistic but still...

Definitely surprised by projected break-even oil prices for each country. :o