Valuebo

Correct. I'd say it's completely unlikely. But everyone fighting the last war. Banks aren't even the same animal anymore. Sure, I guess if inflation went far crazier or years and they hiked rates way higher, they would maybe get in trouble. But way more things would break far sooner. I've also not been in that extreme inflation camp, quite the opposite.

Oh Yeah, for sure! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-10/hedge-funds-boost-s-p-shorts-to-decade-high-before-cpi-earnings?leadSource=uverify wall

Yeah but that would mean 95% think we exit the year below 4250. Which is bearishness you'd expect when things are way worse.

I can't read this as basically 95% of surveyed peeps thinking we end the year lower or around this level at best, right? Cause choosing '3500 - ...' means you are still technically right with YE at 4400 for example. Rather enticing too to choose it over any other option with far lower odds. Kind of a weird way to set up a poll. Makes it look more bearish than it might be.

You are probably right. In any event I did the same as with my TSLA short a few days after on a drop; sold position for average 15-20% gain and concluded my call options are already hard enough to time, let alone puts. No need for added stress in the ptf.

Thinking of going to Switzerland by car for hiking, cycling and running somewhere in May, tips always welcome! Honestly so many amazing spots there that I can't see the forest for the trees anymore. Went to Prague, London, Champagne area (Reims), Guatemala, Belize (and Washington DC) so far this year, so can't complain. Been terrible weather here so glad to escape it somewhat at least. Thinking of doing the classical 3 week+ trip of West coast USA in June and maybe Japan later this year. You're only (relatively) young once I guess!

+++ dealraker and Gregmal. The endless and excessive worrying about the macro environment, exact CPI numbers, banking stability, next rate hike, ... must be so exhausting. Can't imagine it EVER being an edge over longer time periods. Put some family members in mainly European stuff back in October/November and it's been booming to say the least. Haven't cared about those macro things then and I won't now. While people obsess over a possible (earnings) recession and what exactly is and isn't sticky inflation, many companies like LVMH and Delta are still able to surprise with stellar numbers. Maybe we aren't all doomed yet?

Nvda OTM puts 6 months out.

Good discussion here guys, thank you! On a behavioral point, I'd just like to add it feels good to my contrarian brain that banks are generally looked at as black boxes that are basically uninvestable, regardless of of moat-like power for the big guys or the near-decade low valuations in absolute terms. Very confident in stating the relative valuation compared to the broad market hasn't been this low since '09. As if most companies have ever been anything else than black boxes for 99% of "investors". At some point the attraction wins from the smell and you take a basket approach where you rationalize that as a whole, the system of US banks is unlikely to blow up or permanentely destroy your capital. I feel we have approached that point in time, but maybe that is also because I don't see all that much amazing value elsewhere.

A cost of a few bps with the added benefit that they all feel they don't have to raise rates for customers to compete for these deposits with each other? I'll gladly take it.

Have a look at Market cap instead of share price when looking at historical prices @Viking. For bac thats around 300b then VS 215b now. But yes, around same stock price but you got a bigger piece of the pie per share.

More BAC options as we got near the 52-week lows last night with special thanks to Yellen. Tonight nicely followed up by Ackman who again seems to think he is actually helping. What absolute buffoons. Are there any adults left? Taking the volatility here for what it is: nothing relevant.

Afraid I agree with Spek here and that view has definitely changed over last few days. I expected market to remain more rational, silly me! All said and done this weekend was sad to witness. Market working against it's own best interests despite - hopefully at least - rationally knowing things are far better and more robust than GFC. Just feels like we will need a serious washout here with firesale prices. Market gonna snif things out until it hits a clear wall because the fear is too absurd versus fundamentals. Too many potential dominos now considering uncertainty of deposit flows in and lackluster appetite for regional banks. FED is fucked as they can't signal more angst and should likely rise 25 bps and leave no guidance.

My bad, gotcha!