BargainValueHunter

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20110112/NEWS/110119967

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/2011/01/11/ll-cool-j-much-better-than-50-cent-at-investing/

I've spent the last two quarters selling stocks as the market (S&P 500) has risen and the housing market and job market have not. I'm at an all-time high in cash because I expect some MAJOR opportunities in municipal bonds later this year. The market is NOT fearful right now judging by the general movement of the various indexes. I am even beginning to trim my two-year commodities exposure to raise capital!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704458204576074314285184094.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ::)

SEC opens investigation into JOE: http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/TICKER+CORRECTION%3A+SEC+Conducts+Informal+Investigation+into+The+St.+Joe+Co.+%28JOE%29/6208354.html

I was VERY familiar with San Jose, CA (or "The South Bay" AKA "Silicon Valley") from 1994 - 2000. I remember much talk of "gonna be huge" and "potential" regarding THOUSANDS of so-called companies. Now I know Facebook is not Pets.com but remember THREE things: 1) The future is invisible. 2) "Potential" probably shouldn't be a large part of a value investor's analysis ESPECIALLY when the company exists EXCLUSIVELY as massive sets of 1s and 0s. 3) Teens and college student's tastes change REAL QUICK. Again, Facebook is not Pets.com, but its not exactly Coca-Cola in 1925 or Phillip Morris in 1950 either.

The recent opening up of opportunities in the muni bond sector may lead value investors to begin their search for distressed muni debt gold. This article from Forbes was written long before Whitney dropped a dime on this sector of the bond market on "60 Minutes". Have a safe and prosperous New Year CoB&F readers!! ;D http://blogs.forbes.com/investor/2010/08/25/buffett-frets-over-municipals-so-should-you/?partner=yahootix

Interesting discussion. I wonder how much the typical square meter of urban Aussie property would cost now compared to a square meter in Tokyo in 1989 or Miami in 2005. Also...how much would that Sydney property cost, per square meter, in 1997? Has the annual average percentage increase been in the double digits? Answer that and you'll know if our friends on the Continent have a bubble on their hands.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Dear+Bruce%3A+When+Will+the+AIG+Music+End%3F/6185578.html

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/black_paulson_mJ6C7A0f7zHrUbQBWIinRL

http://tinyurl.com/26pzvbu

www.focusinvestor.com/MungerModels.pdf Insight from Charlie Munger, Bruce Berkowitz, Lawrence Cunningham, and Andy Kilpatrick [From 1997]

Bill Miller's Least Favorite Interview (August 24, 2007): http://www.kiplinger.com/features/archives/2007/08/miller.html Meanwhile...Here's Bruce! (August 14, 2008): http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/14/berkowitz-fairx-pfe-pf-ii-in_jl_0814adviserqa_inl_2.html

To Clarify: I'm not about to pull my capital from his fund. Its just that I remember "The Streak" and the fawning over Miller that he never exactly ran away from. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&refer=columnist_currier&sid=aoE7_MxijLFk Miller and Berkowitz are obviously two different mangers with different styles but the simularity of media adulation is flashing "CONTRARIAN INDICATOR" to my Spidey senses... I'm a strong believer in the "Mass Media Contrarian Indicator": ;D http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/26/realestate/26NATI.html?pagewanted=all&position=

Am I the only one who gets a little nervous when you see BB in a long, personal piece like this? I trust his instincts but I rather like the "away from the spotlight, researching ideas alone in a room full of dusty Value Line binders" image of a fund manager. I get a "Bill Miller-ish vibe" when I see these sorts of stories about a manager with whom I've invested.

Anybody who thinks money will make you happy, hasn't got money. - David Geffen

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-09/u-s-will-sell-aig-stake-as-soon-as-practicable-massad-says.html http://www.thestreet.com/story/10943113/1/aigs-largest-private-investor-raises-stake.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN Will AIG be Berkowitz's General Re?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fortune-Brands-announces-rb-2779550089.html?x=0&.v=3 http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/12/08/bill-ackmans-300-million-profit-on-the-fortune-brands-breakup/?mod=yahoo_hs If I committed that kind of capital I'd be an "activist" too! ::)

http://www.realestatechannel.com/us-markets/residential-real-estate-1/st-joe-company-david-einhorn-greenlight-capital-buck-horne-raymond-james-morningstar-william-mccalmont-rivertown-northwest-florida-beaches-international-airport-3551.php

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101122005980/en/Berkadia-Commercial-Mortgage-Expand-Commercial-Real-Estate

If an investing philosophy works for me then I don't understand why that would be a problem for someone else. It's my money, right? Conversely, if another person has a certain strategy for wealth creation that works for them I have no business interfering with that person's decisions. Some wish to be fully invested in equities at all times. Personally, I don't feel comfortable risking that with my cash. I have no qualms about "missing rallies". I am mostly trying to miss crashes. The upside will take care of itself by investing SOME of my capital with solid, well-run companies. Cheers! :)

I like cash as "downside protection" more than anything else. I'm also content to wait for "fat pitches" since I don't have to swing for the 99% of "out of the strike zone" pitches that Mr. Market throws at me everyday. Many, many people thought that the valuations of February - March 2009 would never be seen again after 1974. Those who waited took advantage of those pitches and have, so far, done well. Meanwhile, my other 50% of capital is always on the hunt for the next Fairfax, Berkshire or Markel. I know that simple p/e ratios are not a silver bullet but as a very general overview of a market, it can help guide my research.

This is the S&P 500 P/E chart: http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&chs=750x384&chd=e:AAAQAgAvA.BPBfBuB-COCeCtC9DNDdDsD8EMEcErE7FLFbFqF6GKGaGpG5HJHZHpH4IIIYIoI3JHJXJnJ3KGKWKmK2LFLVLlL1MEMUMkM0NDNTNjNzOCOSOiOyPBPRPhPxQAQQQgQwQ.RPRfRvR.SOSeSuS-TOTdTtT9UNUcUsU8VMVbVrV7WLWaWqW6XKXZXpX5YJYYYoY4ZIZYZnZ3aHaXama2bGbWbmb1cFcVclc0dEdUdkdzeDeTejeyfCfSfifxgBgRghgwhAhQhghwh.iPifivi-jOjejuj-kNkdktk9lMlclsl8mLmbmrm7nKnanqn6oJoZopo5pJpYpop4qIqXqnq3rHrXrmr2sGsWsls1tFtVtkt0uEuUujuzvDvTvivywCwSwhwxxBxRxgxwyAyQygyvy.zPzfzuz-0O0e0u091N1d1t182M2c2s273L3b3r364K4a4q455J5Z5p546I6Y6o647H7X7n738G8W8m829G9V9l91-F-U-k-0.E.T.j.z..,XpXMUETgTjUaSeQsQzSWVXW2WaWUTqTjUOVnWCWhTwT.YWYlWmSXUJU2VJWdVOVTVzX3YpZbdWbmX5Wpa2dncmcqaAVqUTUiXoYlZxXTWCRZPPRFS5TfSoPzR.TTRpRqQ1OwO5NsNQOOQDPGOELhIgIKH0JBHrGgGjGqIDJuKbJaKVKuMaMwOhPMQ4UQYFa-iqmTcjblVZT3L6HeLLRmQrPCOuQ5V4YybrZJRSS6T-TjU-RHRyQTM7LtM.PEOJPCPUQeT.SkOrO-NVOQNHMTNwNfPPPFQCQOQqPCPXRtUeXnXaYJVZVmRpTJXBYbXeWPXpZybIV8YpZkbrdadyciezbXaJb5bib1bHX6V4RkVEVnWGWRX8UVRUNTLbN9OUPDOpNiL1MEL2LTLVLXL2K0JdIgLNM0MqLWMzOFPARbTGWKRyStTUVxV0WuT-XKZTZHaAaVbZZsZ4d7fsf0kQp8qDw9z84G4B2uvVpKmweBdTf0jZg4iBhoh3fmi0jEeuawTaVXaRZKcA,vEvE,WKWK&chco=0000FF&chxt=x,x,y,r&chxl=0:%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1890%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1900%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1910%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1920%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1930%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1940%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1950%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1960%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1970%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1980%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C1990%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2000%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C%7C2010%7C1:%7C1881-01-01%7C2010-11-19&chxr=2,0,50%7C3,0,50&chxp=3,21.88092535&chxs=0,666666,12,0,lt,dddddd%7C2,666666,12,0,lt,dddddd%7C3,666666,12,0,lt,dddddd&chxtc=0,-384%7C2,-750&chm=o,FF0000,0,261,5,0%7Co,FF0000,0,97,5,0%7CtBlack%20Tuesday,666666,0,97,12,0%7Co,FF0000,0,213,5,0%7CtBlack%20Monday,666666,1,0,12,0 I will hold 50% cash until the P/E falls below the Grahamian Golden level of <10. As Bruce Berkowitz says: Dry powder when the general market is overvalued and prepared to crash is the sweetest plum for a value investor. The following illustrates what a SUSTAINABLE bull market is NOT based on: http://granitegrok.com/pix2/chart-of-the-day-jobs-chart-october-2010.jpg

As many of you may recall, Prem "bet on deflation" this summer: http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=9254

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/11/19/business/20101120_CHART_graphic/20101120_CHART_graphic-popup.jpg