king888

Here is the PDF format for download http://www.jasonzweig.com/documents/BG_speech_SF1963.pdf

Agreed. Last year, I made around 400% on the one unloved smallcap us-listed chinese company. And I tried to do the same in recent months. I found one us-listed chinese corp that is likely to be legit from all information I gathered ( talked with CFO,IR firm and finding info on local news website).I did everything I could expect visiting the company in Beijing.But I just sold out all my position today .I planed to hold it for longer time frame but the recent news release from company made me nervous. The number just doesn't add up.It is too good to be true kind of news. And CFO stopped responding my email after I shoot some questions.And I just found the discrepancy on the Chinese news and what the company claimed they made sales in last years (2010 sale in Chinese news is more). So I think it is better to take my chips and run before something really bad happen. Like what happened to CCME,TRE .

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CCME.PK+Interactive#symbol=ccme.pk;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=; CCME was trading with 500k -2 million share per day in Nov 2010 - Jan 2011 . It was very liquid from what I remembered. I was about to buy the share back in Jan but feel susceptible with its legitimacy (too good to be true profitability) so I didn't .

Anyone know this guy? He has been accumulating CHBT for 4 million shares. From what I read here.He seems to be smart investor.I am not cheering CHBT here.It looks very likely to be fraud. But this guy's move on chbt is interesting. http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/great-caribbean-investors-1268639.html#ixzz1NbklupUi

Clement Scholl (My most favorite SA contributor) also follow TTT and KHD http://seekingalpha.com/article/252655-terra-nova-s-royalty-a-strong-income-stream http://seekingalpha.com/article/244371-terra-nova-royalty-still-owns-3-of-khd-humboldt-wedag

Will this event cause the Japan's debt bubble burst sooner ? Vitaliy Katsenelson - Japan: Land of the Rising Debt http://contrarianedge.com/2010/07/30/japan-land-of-the-rising-debt/ Vitaliy had a prediction about rising interest rate in Japan with CNBC back in Sep 2009 http://contrarianedge.com/2009/09/28/on-cnbc-will-japan-drive-our-interest-rates-higher/

They own O.biz also

The business moat are not high in Thailand. So that causes earning fluctuation. I expressed my point wrong in previous post.It is not actually commodities industry. But I tried to mention that "cyclical" are nature in companies with have no real moat.So they have more risk,they trades on lower valuation. You can buy a basket of these companies "cheap" . Some companies are relied on only one big customer ,some live with only government spending ,some are relied on high commodities price to generate profit. These companies can gain substantially if they win just only 1 new customer, higher commo price or more government spending. But in the other hand,if things went wrong they can be a biggest loser also. So the survivor bias has a high impact when using the formula screen back test. I just take a look and magic formula screen result in Thailand market at the present time, more than half of the top 30 scores companies are fall into "cheap for a reason" category. And some of them are in obsolete ,weak industries. I doubt that they will survive in the next decade or next few year . IMHO, The market inefficient is caused by few institutional investors in market and the businesses here are not that strong.It is less predictable business and has more earning fluctuation .That causes market inefficient also.

Netnet, The financial disclosures for listed companies in Thai market are moderate to high. Company has to do a FS in quarterly basis. In Hong Kong market, listed companies are just required to send FS in half-year basis only. But in Asian companies including in Thailand or other countries, I think we have a lot of related-transaction. For example, the major supplier might be owned by CEO.Something like that. The magic formula or value screen formula perform well in small stock market might because 1. Less institutional investors. 2. Most stocks are cyclical in commodities industry.No real moat.Very few growth stock that can grow its revenue every year without large cap-ex. To sum up , in small market. Stocks are more volatile in both market valuation (due to less institutional investors) and its business strength .That makes the fundamental-based formulas outperform market substantially .

Thanks netnet. Here is the full english version of that research -> http://wbiconpro.com/330-Paiboon.pdf Thanks Dr.Paiboon who conducts this research.

I read the magic formula about a year ago.And I am still curious about the performance of magic formula since then. Maybe,i can ask an expert around here. Does it exclude the bankruptcy or delisting companies in the backtest ? I read the abstract of academic research which using the same formula in Thai stock market(as I am Thai).The full version is not published yet. The backtest result back in last 13 years in thai stock market has made 1000x gain(not 1000%). But it is impractical because most stocks falls into these formula are very illiquid and i am sure that the researcher didn't include bankrupties or delisted stock in the data. If its backtest didn't include the black swan,it is some kind of the survivor bias.

Here is a discussion on Chinese message board.You can use google translate to read it. Even Chinese investors are not sure about CCME. http://brk.b.bbs.imeigu.com/viewthread.php?tid=6362&extra=&page=1

The outflow cash for investing of CCME is very tiny compare to revenue. Why the company made so much money while very little in this figure? I mean this is out-of-home advertising . They must invest heavily to acquire advertising space. In case of CCME, it should be the DVD player in Bus and the exclusive contract with bus operator, right ? But the capital expenditure is still low. Take a look at FMCN ,the cash out flow in investing in 2009 and 2008 was -158.25 and -145.79 . But for CCME, it was just -1.88 (2009) and -4.22 (2008). FYI ,There is another company. It is IDI . Formerly was Ideation Acquistion.It bought SearchMedia,the leading outdoor advertising player in China, in 2009 . IDI paid $170 M for it. SearchMedia was very compelling .The revenue was growing a lot, the profit margin was great and they used very low captial expenditure to generate these kind of revenue. The managements at IDI including Phil Frost,one of the American richest, were tempted to get these deal. But after the bought it .They found that most of revenue are overstated by fake invoice ,fake receivable from fake clients. They had to restate financial report. And the revenue in 2008 and 2009 for IDI fall almost half. You can read the presentation here http://www.ideationacquisition.com/investorpresentation_101109.pdf . It was published when IDI was going to buy Search Media.

Stock down 33% today with exposed report from muddy waters http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/ccme/initiating-coverage-ccme/

Nice article. John Bird aka Waldo Mushman is very behated on yahoo mb.Today, CHBT down for more than 20% due to exposed news in chinese newspaper website.

Valuecfa, what company are you referring to ? I could not find much bargain stock in Thailand right now. You can drop me a PM about the name,I can give you an advice specifically about that comapny. The fraud in listed companies is not outrageous like the decade ago anymore. Most of the listed companies using a big-4 audit firm.The accounting fraud is fewer here comparing to Chinese-listed companies in Nasdaq.I remember there has only just 3-4 big accounting fraud case in previous 4 years.But most problem is in corporate governance area. Most companies in Thailand are family-owned. 50-70% of shares belong to management or chairman. So the transparency is gray not much disclosure like companies in US.It is normal here that the companies has related transaction with other companies that also own by management or major shareholder.And that transaction is not in favor of the minor shareholder.And insider trading is also widely conduct.The share price usually soars before good news comes.But I think all these issue are getting better these day. Motownsf, books written by Nivate are only in Thai. His original book was written 9-10 years ago. Here is the link http://bit.ly/gU6uFR . Other books from him are the aggregated from his columns in newspaper. You can read those column on his blog by using Google translator but quality of translation is not so good. http://bit.ly/fPExoG

Myth,in brokerage account it is just margin(50% is max). The leaps/option is only for market index.The option market has very light volumn (200-300 contract / day).We also have warrant which have about 1-5 year life. Some guy that i know use mortgage/overdraft from bank and put that into margin account .That's what I call over lerevage.If the pos soar,we can ask for more margin also. And mostly here ,we only long for stocks, the short is allowed but limited to few stocks and limited volumn. I sold all my pos in thailand back in 2008 and decide to invest aboard in 2009. It was just allowed by Bank of Thailand to invest oversea. My performance is laggard comparing to my friends who are in thai market.Since 2008,the market has been hot.Some stock up 4-5 times within a few months and never fall back since then. I smell the bubble becauses the market is expensive.PE ratio is 20 and people feel they can get 30-40% return a year easily. US market is now cheaper

I forgot to mention that two guys are individual investor not an instuition.

I am from Thailand.The emerging market. The market here is very volatile. I knew many people in my value investment forum made a killing in market. One guy made like 2 million baht to north of 100 million baht in 7 year. This guy used a lot of leverage. And one very famous investor icon in Thailand,"Nivate Hemvachiravarakorn"(you can google his name to see how famous he is) .His portfolio up to 1500 million baht from 10 million baht in 13 years (it was Thailand last crisis).His track record is real ,i checked it myself on major shareholder list in thai stock market data. And he wrote an value investment book 10 year ago and still publish an article on newspaper twice a month. He merely uses leverage.Actually he used it once in 2008 because he said there was very cheap stock and he didn't have cash (He is always 100% equity) . He said in his article that it was just about 10% of his portfolio that time. This track record seems to be unbelieavable but it is real.Someone in Thai investment forum also has a track record of his portfolio done by historical data check.And sorry for English I am not native speaker.