bmichaud

hahahah alwaysinvert, no offense intended. Love the username, just hate how often it's used for even the most simple situations. I should switch brokers to Interactive Brokers because it's cheap... "Well bmichaud, you should invert that situation and think about why it's cheap and how you really pay for it elsewhere." Hahah I don't know - just thinking of something stupid where I should "invert" my thinking.

Palantir. Given ur growth bent I would think you'd like that one. Actually one if my favorites of all time, and unlike INVERT, is not put into practice nearly enough.

Invert. Always invert. BARF

Bridgewater is at a 4% expected return right now I believe. They also think we are in the economic sweet spot - not too hot, not too cold, where monetary policy can remain relatively neutral.

It's interesting to read the LA Times archives leading up to the 1987 market crash. There was a headline not a week before about how dangerous the market was. So there is likely always some skepticism in a big market run. However, there were many more signs of excess leading up to that peak, many if not all of which are not present now.

Buffett was worried about the market in 1960...it didn't crash until 1974 (quick 20% decline in 1962 was all he got). Buffett said in his 1986 and 1987 letters that there was limited opportunity in the market....the market went in a straight line until 2000. Go back and read this article from 1990: http://fortune.com/2012/11/21/are-these-the-new-warren-buffetts/ Look at how many guys are worried about the market in 1990. We have the easiest money policy in history coupled with an improving economy. I'm actually surprised the likes of MCD, MMM, JNJ, etc aren't trading at Nifty Fifty types of valuations. And this is not new thinking. I did not all of a sudden switch. I was discussing the possibility of us being in a new secular bull at the end of last year, in the thread Secular Bull. The leading authority on bubbles, Grantham, says we need to get to 2 stdev to have this defined as a bubble. He says that's 2250 on the SPX. He came out in 2007 saying there were bubbles everywhere in all asset classes. So he doesn't just throw that term around freely. So the fact that we are not even technically in a bubble while amidst "reckless" policy, is rather impressive, IMO. And to Liberty's point, Barry Ritholtz has been harping on how this is the most hated market run in history - we hit record highs and the "news" is buried not even on the front page of the Finance section of the Journal... I had two relatives who kind of pay attention to the markets come up to me the other day, separately, and ask when we are finally going to get a 10% correction. Hmmm....

Not at the party. I'm just now dealing with the noise from a few houses down versus calling the cops. Teenagers will be teenagers, and I just need to let it run its natural course - I just hope it's not from an overdose that lands them in the hospital, rather just a slight hangover.

Might i add that out own Parsad was super nervous about the market at 1500 last year....and if I'm not mistaken the great almighty Moore Capital was fully hedged at the beginning of last year saying that he "had never missed a bull market in his career". What if we are in a 1949 to 1968 type of multi year bull??? And we are only 5 years in? I have no clue. Nobody does. So I've concluded - picks stocks and STFU about the market (talking to myself...).

Not necessarily saying I'm bullish. Just that I've learned to not simply be a bear based on valuation, which is what all of the bears are. How about.... ...You only get real big bear markets inside of recessions. As Grantham has recently said, the economy currently looks far younger than what the bears would have you believe. So ya we may get a 10 to 20% decline. But the big 50% decline Hussman needs just to break even? I don't see how that happens with massively easy money floating around (not just low rates - spreads are crazy low) and an expanding economy. Look at carloads growth. All I'm saying is nobody has any effing clue. Not even Buffett. He was bearish in 1960, 14 years before the big crash. Hussman is a fool for not adapting.

I sincerely feel bad for him. Something has to be off with his thought process to go this long fighting one of the greatest bull markets in history. Markets just are not that inefficient to be wrong for this long. And his obsession with pinning everything on the Fed is bizarre!! The ECB balance sheet has contracted significantly yet the European market has done fantastic. The BOJ balance sheet has exploded, and the market hasn't budged in a year. Bottom line - he needs help. I was a bear, and I sought help and figured it out. I wish he would do the same.

For some reason I only read Investor's Business Daily in airports, but from what I've read it seems to have decent TA for individual stocks. They do a lot of volume and accumulation analysis in order to confirm breakouts and washouts. I believe the IBD 50 is growth-oriented, but one may be able to pick up some interesting TA tips just by reading the analysis of their focus names.

It's an interesting exercise to go back and read different commentary leading up to various market turning points. Go back and read different Barron's from 2006 or old newspapers from 1987. You have the same mix of bullish and bearish commentary justifying the advance and calling for its end. My conclusion: you gotta come up with your own objective set of indicators to give you a gauge of what you're trying to guard against. Or if you don't care about the market, buy with a MOS, diversify, and don't use leverage.

I agree 100% with the author. I think Munger gets FAR too much credit for converting Buffett to "quality". In his early letters Buffett routinely talked about finding attractive value in industries with favorable outlooks.

For Heaven's sake - this poll + the SPX going vertical today....hmmm.....

Maybe I missed it, but why can't the ECB buy bonds? The Basel restriction is interesting, but I think a new targeted LTRO program will get around this as long as the collateral haircut is low enough to mitigate whatever risk weighting on the retained portion.

I was being sarcastic :) The general vibe from those responding to his comments is that he is trying to talk to market down in order to buy. I don't believe that's the case.

Here's a November 2007 interview with Tepper. On page 6 he talks discusses his cash position and nervousness about the market. Perhaps he wasn't "deified" enough back then to believe he could manipulate a $10T market himself, and he truly thought the market could go down. Perhaps now he is deified enough to believe he can manipulate a $10T market himself, and truly believes the market will go UP but wants to talk it down to get back in.... 172406928-David-Tepper-s-2007-Presentation-at-Carnegie-Mellon.pdf

Some interesting comments by Jeff Burbank... http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000274407 I'm wondering if the SALT conference theme of de risking topped off by Tepper's commentary, combined with what appears to be a very weak June action by the ECB (i.e. no all-out QE, Japanese style) won't cascade into a much larger than expected correction. Institutions and large speculators are still very complacent (bulls/bulls+bears Rydex funds still extremely bullish), and sentiment readings haven't gone this long without an oversold condition since the late 90s bubble. In other words, lots of pent up selling pressure remains. Small caps, banks underperforming and the SHUT index, treasury bonds outperforming perhaps trying to tell us something?

Roger that

Wellmont - do you believe in the zone of reasonableness theory? Margins at ATH, PS ratios above 2007? Buffett gave some dumb non answer. If forced to own bonds or stocks over next thirty years, he'd take equities all day long. No shat Sherlock. So would Hussman...

Great note on Tepper. http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/05/15/the-apotheosis-of-david-tepper/

Been buying VRX over the past week. Phenomenal buying opp IMO.

I'd love to know when he started to cut exposure, and what truly has changed since last year. I know he has a trader's mentality, so he likely has been cutting all year long, but still.... Just last November he was saying we could have another 20 to 30% year this year and that he feels bad for his hedge fund friends that are forced to have short exposure on. I could have just as easily seen him saying at SALT something similar to his "My Cousin Vinny Market" interview last May on CNBC... 1. US economy is accelerating 2. Inflation is low so the Fed doesn't have to worry about tightening 3. The Fed is pumping so much money into the economy that it HAS TO taper 4. The ECB is easing 5. Japan is easing 6. US interest rates aren't going up for a long time 7. The US is "on the verge of an explosion of economic greatness"

October and December 2014 $190 strike SPY puts

Public pessimism towards stocks my ass: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/04/29/america-is-all-in/