gfp

I agree that that's how it used to work - but the market is not too responsive to his valuation hints these days. It used to be that Munich Re would have gone up with folks learning that Buffett was over 10% and "it is intended to acquire more", but that didn't happen. There used to be a premium in the stock price for the skills of Warren Buffett. Now there is a large amount of supply every day and the general S&P index effects pushing it down on weak days for the overall market. I could see a buyback actually getting done with sentiment on Berkshire where it is these days. A huge contingent of longtime Berkshire shareholders are in the philanthropic phase of their lives - that's a lot of supply.

I'm buying shares here, but one thing you can count on is that Buffett won't announce any sort of share buyback while the WSC deal is pending. It would look too much like jawboning the share price up during the period when the average price determines the exchange ratio. He's definitely not happy about the price he will be issuing shares for WSC, though! And BRK had to eat WSC minority shareholders' share of the Q1 insurance losses.

It all comes down to the quality and integrity of his research. If he's correct, there is absolutely nothing sleazy about it. Do you think it's sleazy of Whitney Tilson and T2 to put out powerpoint after powerpoint touting BRK.A and MSFT? I know folks on this board dislike short sellers from the FFH days, but who else will effectively police the frauds in the securities markets? The last couple of years of China research was very eye opening for me. I had not been to China until last year. I recommend the book "Mr. China" by Clissold as a classic for anyone thinking about investing in or doing business with China-based companies.

It's Carson Block's China-RTO centered research website. He does extensive research, takes a short position/puts/whatever, THEN releases the report. http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MW_TRE_060211.pdf

Does anybody know why Marc Hamburg is not a reporting insider with the SEC? I assume he owns at least some Berkshire stock, yet he doesn't report anything. No Stock? At other companies they at least show a dash for zero shares.

Buffett (Berkshire) owned Diageo for years. He was also a top shareholder in Anheuser Busch before the buy-out. He's not a teetotaler when it comes to buying portions of public companies.

Yeah, sorry - I should have said "In the United States." The question was about the Mississippi floods. I think there will be crop insurance claims and that type of thing. Plus some insurers will write supplemental Flood coverage above the Federal limits.

Most private insurers don't have direct flood exposure. Tornadoes tend be very localized and not very costly as a result.

Here's an example of a new piece of research that was released recently in the space. (always a bit shady when they release stuff on options expiration week) http://absaroka.com/uploads/YONG.ResearchReport.051811-vFINAL.pdf full disclosure: I have researched this company in person in Inner Mongolia and Beijing. I have no position in the company.

still nibbling on overstock http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1130713/000114420411030717/xslF345X03/v223232_ex.xml

If the context of the question was short-selling related, I would agree that it is a security on the reg. SHO / fail-to-deliver list, like many of the small Chinese RTO stocks (CAGC, CCME, DEER, SCEI, SCOK, YONG, etc...) If the context was Bankruptcy / Distressed investing, maybe he was referring to a "fulcrum security"?

I would say there is very little you can add without being on the ground in China. If you are there or have the budget to hire local investigators, there is probably still an opportunity to find some dubious practices. Get used to the idea that some of the companies are 50% real, others 30% real, etc... There are lots of related party transactions and inflated transaction prices, etc. The most blatant frauds have already been exposed. Also, if you are intending to make money on your original research - many of the small cap RTO equities are now expensive to borrow (or impossible) and put premiums quite high. Chinese RTO stocks are showing up on the reg-sho naked shorting lists as people who established short positions through puts were unable to borrow the shares. It's become quite popular and the short squeezes can be very painful.

It really was a great deal - as close as you're going to see Buffett get to an LBO. He borrowed $8 Billion at 1.6% and has already taken $3.25 Billion in dividends out of Burlington to pay it down. He's been pulling cash out at a Billion a quarter this year so far.

$10 Billion sounded right to me. 200m matures in 2097. I mistakenly thought Buffett had reopened that offering and issued some more, but I guess I remembered wrong. It was NSC.

I think he put in more than $24 Billion. Berkshire paid $5.85 Billion cash for the first 22.5% they bought in the open market and through options. Then they paid something around $26.5 Billion for the rest of the equity, with $8 Billion of the cash portion financed at 1.6%. Total price was something like 32.4 Billion and 2/3 was cash, 1/3 Berkshire shares. The biggest coup was getting the deal done, which is why he was willing to issue the shares.

It really is as simple as deploying large amounts of capital at >= 10% initial pretax earnings yields in businesses that will look essentially the same in 50 years. He also liked Rose a lot. Greenwald just didn't understand how quickly the earnings power would return from the trough. If I remember correctly, Buffett paid less than $34 Billion for a business with a huge moat, no threat of obsolescence, run by able and honest management and which is already earning $1 Billion pretax a quarter with further recovery to come.

So how does that rule out BYD as one of the two Foreign manufacturing companies added?

funny quote: "I suffer from premature accumulation"

Just as a reminder, this is in an hour http://www.fairholmefunds.com/pdf/confcall.pdf

it was probably deleted

He used to work for Third Point, a very successful hedge fund run by Dan Loeb. (actually worked there for two separate stretches) I think he runs Fondren Capital now. You can find information on him by google-ing "Brad Radoff"

It certainly looks that way: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1334426/000092189511000896/sc13d07428007_04292011.htm

They will probably let you in to everything if you can show you are a shareholder. For example, being able to show them Berkshire holdings in a brokerage account with a smart phone would work. Otherwise, logging in at a hotel and printing out some statement that shows BRK holdings.

That's interesting, Grantham seems to be of opposite view. Do you have a link to that newsletter? Here's the entire archives of the newsletters, they are usually interesting: http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/resources/newsletter The issue I was referencing is the Spring 2010 issue, PCL discussed page 18. The entire Spring '10 issue is good.

"way" out of the money means a strike price way higher than the current interest rate. (so the option is very cheap) yield calls are just call options that reference a treasury interest rate.