Crip1

Same here in terms of single largest one day account drop in dollar terms. I was not able to "laugh" it off, but was not only able to shrug it off, but raised my already elevated position by more than 10%..being a little greedy when others were fearful. I like the idea of flagging this post to follow up in a year to see how my logic worked out. There is one other aspect to the decline yesterday, and the significant decline since the all time high in December, that may not apply to everyone else, but definitely applies to me. When Fairfax was selling at more than 1.5x book and a P/E of over 10, I wasn't tempted to sell, but I did theorize that a 20-30% bump in price from there might tempt me. Now, a 20-30% bump would not tempt me to sell in the slightest. When the stock is perpetually undervalued, it helps to save one from one's self. So, in a way, I kinda like it, not to mention that FFH buying back it's own stock is an attractive capital allocation option. (I would also love to see them buy out minority partners). -Crip

US$1,605 - Could not help myself. - Added another 10% to my largest position. $70/share in earnings in Q2 looks to be a conservative estimate, so, that means $100/share in 1H of 2026 which puts them on pace for another year of EPS in excess of $200. Selling for just over $1,600... -Crip

Who doesn't love when things go on sale:

That's pretty impressive, @Viking. -Crip

Markel is getting hammered today. One has to think that the Fairfax numbers tomorrow will look similar. There is a part of me that wants to sell part of my holdings (it's my #1 by a country mile) with the idea of buying back over the next couple of days at a 3-5% discount. Ultimately, I'm not going to do that because unforeseeable things happen in the short term, but it would not surprise me in the slightest if we saw a significant decline Friday-Monday. -Crip

I appreciate the time and effort put in by you on your analysis. Thank you for sharing. It's quite often good to hear dissenting opinions. It allows those who are contemplating a position to hear pros and cons and allows for a better decision. My concern is not with your negative assessment of FIH, rather, it's the manner with which you express it. "Trump cabinet", "raving mullahs" and "blindly defend" are examples of emotional critiques, rather than rational analysis. If someone disagrees with me on an investment, that actually makes perfect sense, because not everybody agrees on every investment. But when someone reverts to name calling and or denigration, it speaks less to objective analysis and more to manipulating others. If you think it's a bad idea to own it, all good. But to me, and I'd wager many others, the manor with which you express compels me to disregard your critiques. -Crip

Could not help but think of a song lyric when reading this: "But I really think it's better this way. The more you suffer, the more it shows you really care, right?" -Crip

Man, I can barely tell what it's worth now...10 years from now is a crap shoot for me. That said, there look to be more catalysts to the upside (India's economic progress, room to expand the airport) than to the downside (business part becomes an albatross, another airport springs up, India's economy trails that of the rest of the planet). If one assumes that it's currently undervalued and that value is more likely to increase than decrease, the risk-reward analysis tilts to reward. That said, I DEFINITELY welcome alternate views...that's how we learn. -Crip

Not to mention the hit to TRS. It's been a wonderful investment, but this quarter's gonna hurt a little. -Crip

Envoking the Foos... Yet another reason to appreciate you, Viking. -Crip P. S. I play in a Foo Fighters tribute band in Dallas, TX

Full disclosure: This whole topic is well outside of my circle of competence, so I am simply seeking to understand. It seems that the Indian government could simply sell smaller percentages of their holdings on the open market, say, 5-10%/year for a few years. Far less administrative burden for sure and it eliminates the reserve price issue. Thinking it may be that the government wants to control who ultimately owns/runs the bank but, from the outside, the process looks to be ineffective to say the least. -Crip

No question about it. "Not quite getting it" is an understatement. I was looking at the FFH Value Line update dated 2/27, shortly before earnings came out. Here is what happened since 27-Feb: Actual F/Y EPS of $213.78 vs $201.35 Value Line estimate – 6.2% higher Actual Y/E BV/Share of $1,260.19 vs $1,238.65 Value Line estimate – 1.7% higher Actual shares outstanding are 20.9M vs 22.0M Value Line estimate – 5% lower Sale of an asset which will produce a gain of $40+/Share while also increasing Fair Value over Carrying Value Objectively, this is a pretty damned impressive 2 weeks by any measurement. Mr. Market's take is that shares are 2.4% (US) and 3.5% (TSE) lower than they were at market close 27 Feb. Without question, they don't get it. But, this is what makes a market...those of us who DO get it can smile. -Crip

That's a question for accounting folks. Poseidon was carried at $2B and had a fair value of $2.5B. After selling half for $1.9B, does that mean the remaining half is still to be carried at $1B or is it carried at closer to $1.9B? One would think thaty the Fair Value would be closer to $1.9B but not sure of carrying value. Ultimately, as an owner it's not terribly meaningful as FFH still owns the same percentage of the company...I simply do not know the accounting for this. Would very much appreciate anyone who could enlighten us.

Selling half is interesting to me, tells me a few things: 1) They got a fair value, or better, offer for the half that they sold, or... 2) They found a better ROI opportunity, AND... 3) They still feel that the company as an ongoing concern is sufficiently compelling that they want to keep a sizable ownership stake. -Crip

That's a fair point, thank you for making it. I still think it's fair to question this. Example, Marval researches and becomes interested in buying XYZ company. Does Ben bring it to FFI? Who buys it first? It allows for a David Sokol/Lubrizol scenario. I am not suggesting any malfeasance has occurred. Just noting that it does look to be a potentially tricky situation. -Crip

I've seen a few presentations by Ben and always found him to be thoughtful and his message to be compelling. As he's in line to take over the Chairmanship of FFH when appropriate, the company seems like it's in good hands. However, as I watched this, there were a couple things that came to mind that are concerning. Apologies if someone else pointed this out before. 1) There is a fine line between presenting compelling information and being sold, and he gets closer to the line of selling. This is based on a few things, one of which is not hearing him invert, always invert, as Charlie recommended countless times. A discussion of "What can go wrong here" would be appreciated. A presentation of "This is what we do, and this is why we do it" is great, but then saying "I hope you invest with us" takes it to a slightly different place. 2) Ben is the Chairman of FFI, a company which has seen Book Value CAGR of less than 8%/Year where Marval has had a CAGR of well over 25%. I thoroughly understand that we're talking apples and oranges in terms of structure and, based on BIAL alone the current Book Value is understanded, perhaps dramatically, but the difference is striking to say the least. Clearly he's been able to identify solid investments in India, so why is FFI not identifying the same investments or realizing similar results? Not suggesting anything nefarious, it just does not make sense to me. -Crip

One other part of the story was surfing the web one random day and finding the Stockhouse message board (not well known south of the border here). Had I not found that, chances are I would not have known about the old MSN Message board and, of course, Corner of BRK/FFH. I've said this before, but had it not been for Cardboard and BSilly, among others, I may not have held my FFH position. I've been really fortunate. -Crip

Well, it's kind of a long story, in two parts. The first part started almost 33 years ago when I met the woman who became my wife. Her dad worked for Shand Evanston which had been purchased by Markel years before. Needless to say that I have received an immeasurable level of knowledge and wisdom from my father-in-law over the years as he was the one who introduced me to insurance companies as investments, and some guy from Omaha named Warren. We've owned all three companies for decades. The allocation between the three has varied somewhat over the years as I owned more MKL than the others for a long while, and more BRK for a little while as well. Simply said, the notion of profitable underwriting and prudent float investing resonated with me instantly, and has ever since. Insurance is far more inside of my circle of competence compared to Tech, Energy, Retail or damned near anything else. The currently outsized Fairfax position is due in large part to the share price appreciation over the past 5-6 years and my being a net buyer during this run. Normally being this concentrated in a single company is not something that I like, but I'm more comfortable with my Fairfax holdings than really anything else I own. The other part is the "Crip Inc" business plan. The company "business" is owning fractional shares of other businesses. If you recall Look-Through earnings outlined in Berkshire's Owners Manual, I calculate Crip Inc.'s earnings by multiplying EPS by shares owned at the end of each quarter. Between FFH, BRK and MKL which, combined, represent roughly 40% of our investable net worth, we are earning about 75% of our combined salary, which is enough to retire at the end of this year. The rest of the 60% is in cash, 401Ks and other investments which add to Crip Inc. earnings. So, yes, we can cover all the basics with FFH, BRK and MKL leaving the rest of our earnings to afford us some "Nice-to-haves" like travel. It's also for any unforeseen expenses that will undoubtedly come about as the wife and I age and, of course to reinvest in Crip Inc. The advantage of thinking this way is that day-to-day fluctuations are of minimal if any concern. -Crip

I definitely remember that, it was well over 10 years ago as MKL hit $1K roughly 9 years ago. I remember thinking at the time, and may have offered this up at the time, that MKL would likely hit $1K before FFH but FFH would likely win the race to $2k. Clearly MKL has won both "races". If we're looking to $3K, then i think Fairfax, despite being farther back right now, is the odd-on favorite, at least on this board. It would be interesting to see that thread as some of the observations likely aged better than others. If it's a matter of FFH or MKL I would prefer to have FFH (in fact, i have about 4 times as much money in FFH than I do in MKL), but I don't see a reason why one can't hold both...and hold Berkshire as well. In terms of value vs price, FFH looks to be the better investment at this time, but that's very fluid to say the least. -Crip

Thank you for posting this. I had virtually zero knowledge of Dexterra so this was a good read. Wondering if anyone on the board as bought in to Dexterra? I had a nice chunk of Eurobank but my broker (Schwab) is no longer able to make purchase on my behalf, which was a big negative for me as I expected to hold Eurobank for a long, long time. -Crip

This really is interesting to think about. The team at Fairfax has far more visibility into their holdings than any of us do, but I for one hate the idea of selling Eurobank any more than they already have to in order to retain their 33% ownership. Poseidon seems like a more obvious choice from my perspective but that depends largely on how much they can get versus how much they feel it's intrinsically worth. If this does come together, the one thing I would bet on in terms of financing is virtually all of us will say "Hmmm, I didn't even think of that" regarding one or more aspects of it. That's a big aspect of why I have such an outsized position in Fairfax, I'm effectively paying them make capital allocation decisions way smarter than I could ever do myself. -Crip

Well, we're into our third day after earnings release and it looks like your skepticism was warranted. So, what to do? Some board members will say that Fairfax has been on sale for years now, but the last time it really went on sale was November of 2025, I increased my position (already my biggest holding by far) by 15% and then sold back 2/3rds of that increase a month later for a 12% return. Net-net is that I increased my position by 5% at a net cost of under $1,150/share. We're not there yet, but if we get close to US$1,600 or below, it will be tough to not deploy some dry powder back into FFH and see if the November/December deal can be replicated. -Crip

Give it a few days...it's a trend that's been observed in the past, multiple times, and I am thinking that it recurs this week. -Crip

This is a textbook example of Consistency Bias, a component thereof is Commitment Trap. Commitment Trap: Because humans value consistency, once a person makes a commitment (public or private), they are more likely to continue that behavior, even if it is no longer in their best interest. None of us can control this, nor does it really do appreciable harm to us, so there's no reason to get bent out of shape over it. I personally find it amusing. -Crip

$2.53/Share in Q4...that's pretty remarkable. Most folks, myself included, were so focused on FFH that we did not consider what could happen at FIH. -Crip