I thought these morning comments from Rich Farr at Boenning & Scattergood were funny:
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GERMANY WANTS A HAIRCUT
October 11, 2011
KEY POINTS:
GERMANS PUSH FOR BIGGER GREEK HAIRCUT:
The Telegraph reported today that Germany is pushing for a “hard” default in Greece with losses of 60% for investors of Greek debt, much higher than the previously agreed amount of a 21% haircut. When you are talking about 60% losses, the term “haircut” no longer applies. This is more of a back waxing.
German Finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, recently stated that the original haircuts were too low and that banks will need sufficient capital to cover greater losses. Yah Think? There are fears that if Germany pushes for greater losses on Greek holdings, that there could be a spillover affects for the other peripheral sovereign debt and the crisis could “snowball” out of control. It seems to us that the problem has already snowballed out of control, given that Greece wasn’t kicked out of the European Union over a year ago. The banking crisis has now manifested itself in more than just the BIG SIP countries. The banking crisis has now found its way to France and Austria and will only gain momentum from here.
Over the past weekend, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to do “all that is necessary to guarantee bank recapitalization”, but provided no further details. We call this the plan to have a plan. But the bottom line is that you cannot solve a debt crisis with more debt. Sooner or later, debt needs to be eliminated, either voluntarily or involuntarily. We continue to believe the only option to end this crisis is for Greece to default. To continue throwing good money at bad investments just obscures the line between good and bad credits. Until we know exactly who the losers are going to be in Europe, we can’t possibly know who the winners will be as well.