dcollon

I enjoyed this quote from Gen-re's commentary: Highlighting investing in Twitter, “Following such a crowd is an excellent hedge against ever being financially independent,” he said, citing past plunges in technology stocks. “Gravity wins in time.”

Bill Gross Monthly Commentary http://media.pimco.com/Documents/13-1421-GBL%20IO%20Dec.pdf

From SeekingAlpha Fannie bets a puzzle to many "When you talk to anybody in Washington, there is an almost universal view that Fannie (FNMA -3.1%) and Freddie (FMCC -1.5%) should be a part of the past, that it is a broken model, and also that private investors in Fannie and Freddie shouldn’t realize any returns from those investments," says PIne River's Colin Teiccholtz, scratching his head over anyone owning stock in the two as a play on them being privatized. "We've looked at it," says Avenue Capital's Marc Lasry. "I think you’re making a bet that you’re going to be able to force the government to do something. ”It's "a puzzle to me," says an investor in Bill Ackman's Pershing Square. "If you think the Target board is hard to convince of a policy change, you have got to believe you’re really taking on a tall job to try and influence the government. "Taking a break from talking Herbalife, Ackman - who recently disclosed near-10% stakes in the common of both Fannie and Freddie - says he's not supportive of Bruce Berkowitz's recap plan (which would be of benefit to preferred owners like Berokowitz, but not so much for owners of the common) MBS trader Deepak Narula calls the common stock of Frannie an option which should rise any time chatter about privatization picks up. "Whether the option is worth anything in the short run is immaterial.”

Great interview...thanks for posting.

Bail Out Tracker: Thanks to ValueWalk and Propublica http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

https://investors.robinhood.org/agenda.php

Sperling: WH not interested in GSE recap plan from SeekingAlpha "I want to make clear our administration believes the risks are simply too great, that this would re-create the problems of the past," says the president's chief economic adviser Gene Sperling of any recapitalization plan for Fannie Mae (FNMA +7.5%) and Freddie Mac (FMCC +6.4%).Speaking at an industry conference in D.C., Sperling says the administration is interested in rebuilding a stronger mortgage market not dominated by two mammoth institutions, and Frannie - even if restructured - would retain a large advantage over newer entrants.Needless to say, Sperling's remarks come in wake of Bruce Berkowitz's buyout and recap proposal for the GSEs from last week.

Yours Truly, I have attached some research that might help. LMCA.pdf

jbird, I edited my comments for you. Hopefully, it's not as much of a "stretch" for you.

Thanks Sanjeev. Great topic! It's so frustrating to me that with all the great technology the audio/video of these presentations isn't better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/pritzker-billionaire-brothers-turn-from-family-feuding-to-deals.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/metlife-to-halt-earnings-guidance-in-focus-on-long-term.html

...and dress warmly, don't have cash on you and know some phone numbers if you are about to go to jail. That was a pretty funny way to start the article.

He's also pretty close to Kyle Bass, but I like the Burry connection as well. Can't wait for the new book. Michael Lewis is a great story teller.

Icahn's New Website http://www.shareholderssquaretable.com/

Willis Group to unveil new arrangement tomorrow; Berhsire Hathaway and Peoples Insurance of China and Hiscox said to be ready to sign up-- FT Tuesday, October 22, 2013 The FT reports that Willis will unveil a plan in which it will allocate up to a quarter of all premiums to pre-selected underwriters in London's corporate insurance market. The FT notes that traditionally , price and terms are determined by a 'lead' underwriter. The head of global placement at Willis, Alastair Swift, believes this new arrangement will be key source of additional funding for the sector.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-buffetts-on-charity-succession-and-tv-S6rYR0_lTLWa22h9rNd5CA.html

Mark J. Grant on Germany: The Drop Dead Day has Come and Gone September 22, 2013 has now passed and the German elections are over. The coalition government is still not formed but what I predicted has taken place which is a new and much harder line from Germany. The days predating the election were filled with nicey-nice comments and no one, in any country, wanted to upset Ms. Merkel and we had four months of a self-imposed European calm. That now has ended. The recent German comments on the European banking system and just who will take the hits if necessary are an explicit example of the new Germany where the use of German money will only be tolerated as the last resort; the very last resort. The only group not mentioned in the most recent German pronouncements were the depositors and that is still an open question but equity owners, junior and SENIOR debt holders will clearly be tagged before the use of public funds if any bank is found wanting. The Netherlands has also joined in this opinion and there is no democracy here as any country can veto any different kind of legislation pushed forward by the periphery countries or by Mr. Draghi. As a matter of inference the recent letter sent by Mr. Draghi to the European Commission was flat out rejected by Germany where he requested the use of the ESM funds prior to losses forced upon senior creditors. As is often the case in politics one must read between the lines to understand what is happening and the upcoming bank stress tests to be performed by the ECB are examples in point. The first two European bank stress tests were a joke and if not a joke then a cosmetics commercial. The blush was brought out and applied and then the eye liner was carefully put on and then they used a big fluffy brush for the talcum powder and every blemish was hidden and disguised. The look was declared perfect and all of the shades blended in wondrous harmony. Then we had Dexia and Bankia and smaller banks in Austria and the Netherlands and finally the entire Spanish banking system and the make-up had turned grimy and blackened while it ran sadly down the face of the Continent. Nothing but a cover-up while the female underneath it all was ghastly and scarred. Now it has been argued that things are better because yields have come down since the first two bank charades. "Bah Humbug," says the Wizard. What has taken place is the implementation of the new European strategy where every penny that could be found in the national coffers was used to buy bonds of the sovereign and of the national banks. The national banks of the periphery countries loaded up on their sovereign debt while the pension funds followed the same tactic and Real Estate securitizations and bad loans worth pennies on the Dollar were packaged and sold to the ECB and money loaned at face value. Everything and anything was declared risk-free and money was loaned as if these instruments were codified by the Gold Standard but, as is always the case when the make-up wears thin, the blush smudges drearily as the evening comes to an end. I have always said, and I still maintain, that you can cover things up and hide reality all that you like but that there is always a last Harrah where someone has to pay the losses. Now with the advent of the new bank stress tests conducted by the ECB and not a German make-up artist, some of the truth may come out and Germany, I am quite sure, has monitored the real health of the banking patients and is preparing for the unmasking which is why the recent statements by them have been made. Italy, Spain, Cyprus, Greece, Portugal and Ireland will all join the chorus calling for the greater European good. The chorus they will sing will be, "You pay, You pay, Not us, Not us," but the German elections are now over and the melding clay has fomented and turned to cement as foretold. The Draghi put was always conditional and the condition was the political will of the countries in the European Union and the German Finance Minister has made the German position quite clear; crystal clear. Make no mistake in your thinking, if the Germans do not want something to be done then it will not be done and bail-ins will take place long before the use of any taxpayer money now. What the ECB may reveal is unknown but what is now explicitly known is the reaction of Germany to any and all problems in the banking sector. The use of any pooled funding such as the ESM will only be used as a last, and I would bet, terrible resort with pounds of flesh extracted for its use. With national coffers full of their own debt all across the Southern nations of Europe and a capacity for more support at de minimis levels I expect a spike in sovereign yields in the forthcoming months. The Piper always gets paid in the end!

Thanks to ValueWalk http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/Q3_2013_Commentary.pdf

Thanks very much for posting the video

Grant's Take on the Markets OCT 10, 2013 | 9:51 AM EDT A little Alice in Wonderland from Sir Mark Grant: "Of course it is," said the Duchess, who seemed ready to agree to everything that Alice said; "There's a large mustard-mine near here. And the moral of that is–The more there is of mine, the less there is of yours." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland I believe this bit of superb wisdom explains several things. First and foremost it tells you exactly how taxes operate. Next it explains, precisely, the difficulties between the Democrats and Republicans in the United States. He wants, she wants, they all want and expect us to pay for it. You cannot even say, anymore, that you do not wish to pick up the bill for a dinner that you did not plan, did not choose the guests, are not invited to and where you are not welcome to dine. Oh the mad hatters say you get some tidbits of this and that from time to time and then they inform you that if you do not pay well then here comes the Red Queen and off with your head. We have all fallen down the rabbit hole! This morning there is a hint that America might agree on some short term funding solution. Equity futures are like catfish in the river and jumping higher, bond futures are on the banks singing the blues, the White Queen, Ms. Yellen, and her predecessor, the King of Tarts, will not stop pumping out the fabricated milk and honey anytime soon and the very odd croquet game continues. The rest of the world, the spectators for this match, applaud politely and, when asked, just say, "Too much!" "You used to be much more...muchier. You've lost your muchness." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland It is probably an interesting point to consider if America has lost its "muchness." We did seem to have more of the stuff some years back. There seemed to have been some common goals and purposes when I was growing up but then I was at a tender age and being instructed though it seemed, at least, that people were more willing to accept what was handed out at the tea party back then without too much complaint. Now we worry if the tea is organic, the pastries vegan and if the crumpets are fried in oil or baked. It seemed so much simpler back then. Whatever happened to peanut butter and jelly sandwiches? It seems that some of America's cast of characters are regurgitating one of Alice's prime questions; "Who in the world am I? Ah, that's the great puzzle." They want my money, your money or they are quite willing to make new money to pay for anyplace that we might decide to go. There was a time, I had always thought, where the amount of money that you had determined what you could do or not do. This no longer seems to be the case. We are now in a make it, take it or bake it up fresh world. The problem is this; if you keep eating things that aren't there, even if we are told all day long that they are, then eventually you become hungry and undernourished anyway. It is funny how this always seems to work. Even if we are told it doesn't matter. Take some more tea," the March Hare said to Alice, very earnestly. "I've had nothing yet," Alice replied in an offended tone, "so I can't take more." "You mean you can't take less," said the Hatter: "it's very easy to take more than nothing." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland I am criticized, from time to time, for being overly cautious. I don't know; I make what I make, I watch the way they take what they take and you and I are not permitted to bake it up when we choose. That is another "off with your head" offense. I can spend only what I have, they can spend my money, your money, not their money of course because all they live on is my money and your money and then, when cornered, they keep baking away. They will probably keep baking away for some time now as no one seems to know quite where we are going but we must eat, one way or another, in the meantime. "My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Please do not disparage me for being cautious. I can smell what is in the oven just like you but I occasionally open the oven door and peer at what is inside. Something they do not like at all but I do it nevertheless. What is being baked up is hardly the stuff of a square meal and I fear undernourishment. I remain cautious. "The rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday-but never jam today." "It must come sometime to jam today," Alice objected. No it can't," said the Queen. "It's jam every other day. Today isn't any other day, you know." -- Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

What a great interview. It was so good I read it a few times.

[amazonsearch]Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights[/amazonsearch] This has been an interesting book. It has been kind of a combination of Gladwell, Kahneman and few others with some additional thoughts obviously from the author. It's a fun and educational discussion of where and how insights come into our lives.

Is what kind of a weird concept/talk, but it was somewhat funny to me to see someone spend so much time thinking about it.

Ted: Malcolm Gladwell