beerbaron
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Posts posted by beerbaron
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Around 12%. Won't add more unless I see discount to BV.
BeerBaron
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I buy when it's low and sell when it's high. Not at the quaterly dividend dates...
BeerBaron
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Look at the underwriting results of the mid 80's, the interest rates were much higher but the underwriting results were much poorer as well. As the interests continuously declined the insurers have improved their underwriting results to offset the decline. The process takes time but it does happen, look at how the insurers followed the S&P500 since the early 80's it basically followed it and the interests went from 19% to 0%.
I have also tried to investigate the Japan example as well, they have had 0% interest rates since the beginning of the 90's. But I could not quite find any studies or long term data on the Japan life industries. The only thing I could find out is that Japan life insurers had some kind of oligopoly where they can set rates by meeting with each other. Maybe someone with a Bloomberg terminal could get the charts of the main insurers to look at...
BeerBaron
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I agree that life insurers that did not match their liabilities with their assets in the past to boost profits will find the next years quite hard. But how about Life insurers with matched Assets/Liabilities... wouldn't they be able to get acceptable returns no matter the environment?
BeerBaron
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There is probably an opportunity for profit here. Watsa has made it clear in the last year that what he if after is credit rating improvements.
I wish I could get quotes on those 7.25% Senior notes. Are they traded or privately held?
BeerBaron
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I think that's what most people on this board are expecting too. I believe that it will take a while and that our expected ROE should be much lower then pre-crisis levels up until the leverage gets to a normal level.
Here is my cheery opinion tough. Companies in a lack of good opportunities will most likely increase their dividends/buybacks and reduce their investments. I see it a shareholders cash return on their investments.
BeerBaron
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I like the CEO, but to me OSTK seems like a high risk/reward situation. Right now the stock is priced for somewhat 10-15% growth and we are currently at the breakeven point where fixed costs can be paid by profits. But it all depends on Q4, if there is 15% sales growth between Q42009 and Q42010 then we are talking about a huge quaterly profit (around 100M from my estimates). But assume there is no growth for whatever reason then we see a negligible profit and we are back to a 150M valuation.
Under the optimist scenario the possible stock price should lie around 700-1000M
Under the pessimist scenario the possible stock price should lie around 100-200M
We are a the inflection point, take your bets because there won't be much more roulette plays for this one.
BeerBaron
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As everybody know we are probably at the rock bottom of the P&C soft market. Did anybody on the board recently renegotiated all their insurances in order to take advantage of the low prices available? What was your average saving in %? Seems to me like a value play on the other side of the equation :)
BeerBaron
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Good interview but... Genworth! For the dividend no less! What happened to don't lose money it seems like a bad risk/reward.
BeerBaron
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I believe the patent portfolio is worth quite a bit too. I started browsing trough the patent last week and saw that they had nice broad claims. Who would be a buyer of the portfolio?
BeerBaron
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Why not buy a pair for your kid or nephew and see what he thinks of it?
BeerBaron
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Isn't there a Chinese equivalent to a 10-k that is supposed to help us verify the validity of the US reports? What does it say?
From the con world:
"If the fish did not bite that's because the lure was not big enough"
From everybody's mouth:
"If it's too good to be true, it probably is"
BeerBaron
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Can you provide copies... NY time had lots of articles you know.
BeerBaron
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Why is it that the threads that people spend most time on are macro threads? Look at the amount of reply on this thread and on the Negative market sentiment thread...
Aren't we suppose to focus on the opportunities? For example jasonw1, posted a valid question yesterday about a China stocks but no replys yet.
Nobody seems to have any opinions on stocks but everybody has an opinion on macro forecasts. It's like politics, debates get heated and people lose focus on what they want to achieve in the first place.
BeerBaron
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There does not seem to have any women in the group... interesting.
BeerBaron
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Klarman has about 20B in AUM.
BeerBaron
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Quitter... :P
Have you ever been to the Great American Beer Festival in Denver? I went last year and it was crazy awesome.
No I have never visited. I hope it's better then the ones we have in Montreal, they are overpriced with a selection resembling to what I could find in a good convenience store.
I'll put Denver on my todo list.
BeerBaron
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Woodworking, Hockey and Home Renovations are usually my other interests. Investing has been taking a bigger chuck of my time in the last two years but I intend to go back to a more normal level when the market is less attractive.
BeerBaron
I thought for sure one of your hobbies would be making or drinking beer :D
Beer Drinking is a lifestyle not a hobby :)
Not nearly drinking as much as when I took this nickname, university has this strange habbit of making you party all the time.
BeerBaron
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Woodworking, Hockey and Home Renovations are usually my other interests. Investing has been taking a bigger chuck of my time in the last two years but I intend to go back to a more normal level when the market is less attractive.
BeerBaron
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Did anybody do any research on the long term impact of low interests on insurers and bank? I believe the the Japan example is a prime example of how will the financial companies could adapt in a low yield environment but the resources on the subject are scarce.
BeerBaron
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It used to be like that back in the days in Montreal. If I remember correctly Maurice Richard was offered a substantial salary increase if he were to go play with the Leafs but he preferred to stay in Montreal for peanuts.
BeerBaron
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10k: "In 2008, we elected to reduce the number of stores offering Heelys to better balance supply and demand"
Wtf, balance supply and demand! It's not like they are running a billion dollar business. It sound like B*llsh*t to me.
Very good find, I'll continue reading.
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It means both are good but as your portfolio gets bigger you won't be able to find Dodd's stock to generate superior returns.
I saw this quote from a guy that scanned a letter he sent to Buffet and got a reply. It was funny the guy wrote a 2000 words letter and Buffet answered back on the corner of the page with a 10 words sentence.
BeerBaron
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I don't believe devaluations of currencies doing a lot of business with the US (Canada/Mexico) is a concern. I pretty obvious the central banks will act to lower their currency's value if the US$ goes down.
If the country does not do lots of business with the US then it's another story.
BeerBaron
ENER - My Favorite Solar Stock
in General Discussion
Posted
If I were to invest in green energy I would opt for CVA. They are converting waste to energy. The technology makes sense and is already economically viable. I'm actually waiting for my entry point, it's quite cheap for a utility but not quite cheap enough for me.
BeerBaron