shalab
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Posts posted by shalab
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I looked at FRFHF prices in 2009 - opening price was $280. HD opening price was $20. After a decade, we have FRFHF at $464. HD is at $177.0. In the meantime, FRFHF has paid out $100 in dividends whereas HD has paid out ~$18 in dividends.
To keep the calculation simple, we will simply add the dividends to the stock appreciation and it is the same calculation for both.
Cumulative value generated by HD - $195. Cumulative value generated by FRFHF $564.
Compounding rate for 10 years:
HD: 25.57%
FRFHF: 7.3%
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Thanks - looks like there will continue to be more opportunities to buy this quarter if the prices remain low
So here's my math:
9/30/2018 share count was 1,642,269 A share equivalents [2,463,403,858 B share equivalents] - from page 23 of the Q3 10Q
10/25/2018 share count was 1,641,681 A share equivalents [2,462,520,906 B share equivalents] - from front cover of Q3 10Q
So subsequent to quarter-end, they resumed repurchases and it was about $181 million worth of stock through 10/25. Which means they didn't stop in August because of a black-out period - they stopped because they have a ceiling price on their purchase plan.
* [sorry, should have included the difference, about 588 A share equivalents repurchased in Q4 up to 10/25, or 882,900 B shares eq.]
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I read through FRFHF Q3 report - I was surprised by the amount of dilution. I am also surprised diluted book value is never mentioned anywhere in the report.
Book Value:
451.52 per share
shares outstandign for calculation of book value:
27,374,203
Diluted shares outstanding:
28,357,173
Book value per Diluted share: 435.87
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Don’t use average as quarter end
Fair point. Let us look at end of Q2. July 26, 2018
From the cover of Q2:
Class A - 734527
class B - 1365840748
Total: 734527 + (1365840748/1500) = 1645088
Total from cover of Q3: 1641681
Difference: 3407 A shares.
From page 45 of Q3 report, total shares bought back in Q3 is 2985. So 3407 - 2985 is 422 'A' equivalent shares bought back in Q4.
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Starting a separate thread as this can boost shared holder returns significantly:
Number of shares bought back in Q4 till Oct 25
From the cover page of 10-Q:
Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of October 25, 2018:
Class A — 733,152
Class B — 1,362,792,906
From Page 4 at quarter end:
Average Class A shares outstanding 736,262
Average Class B shares outstanding 1,360,940,890
Total A equivalents from cover page: 733152 + (1362792906/1500) = 1641681
Total A equivalents at the end of Q3: 736262 + (1360940890/1500) = 1643556
Buyback of A equivalent: 1875
Money spent on buy back in Q4: > 0.5 billion
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My son(8th grade) and I did a valuation exercise this morning after Q3:
We added cash + investments on one hand and came up with yearly operating earnings estimate. Our valuation range is 650B - 800 B. Would like to hear others opinions.
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Here are some other interesting ideas.
Rain industries => P/E of 5
Dwarikesh Sugar => P/E of 7
South Indian Bank => P/B of 0.5
Piramal => P/B of 1.3
IIFL => P/E of 13
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According to this, one can go through the QFI route. Looks like tradeplus will do the paper work.
US citizens can invest is one of two ways. One is through the person of India origin route. Others should go through the QFI (qualified foreign investor) route.
https://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/03/14/investing-in-india/
Here is a blog on how to do it - may be this brokerage will also handle the paperwork:
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Looks like the small-cap/mid-cap sector in India has dropped a lot. It has a stable democracy and a good growth rate. One can buy ETFs such as SMIN or INDA. Watsa's vehicle ThomasCook India has dropped by 20% in constant currency and close to 30% against the USD.
Looks like one can also open a brokerage account in India as a US Citizen.
cheers!
shalab
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These articles explain the booming house prices in Vancouver and other parts of Canada.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/china-canada-foreign-buyers/article33485996/
What's the purpose of this topic, shalab?
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rb, +1. The article seems genuine. I don't believe the denials from apple and amazon - these folks have massive business interests in China and have every reason to deny the article. They can't do business in China if they fight the government.
Huge swaths of China tech are down hard overnight. Lenovo is the standout, down 20%.
Big moves. Despite all of the denials. It somehow doesn't feel like an article where the writer was producing a work of fiction. Feels more like it was more or less known (or felt) that something like this was going on and the article points that they were caught with the hand in the cookie jar.
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Looks like a new deal is in place.
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Book value at Q2 2018 - 453.99 USD
Book value at Q2 2011 - 379.46 USD
7 year growth => 19.8%
If one adds in the $10 dividends at $70, total book value growth is 38%
Even the gain in India investments only accounts for 6% of book value. (800 mm). India market has lost 10-20% of its value since the beginning of this year.
As Buffett has mentioned, ultimately the return on a stock is a reflection of the return on the business. What kind of growth in business can one expect moving forward? Buffett has also mentioned that insurance/re-insurance is not as attractive as it used to be. So is FFH worth anything above book? (especially since it is now at 1.2 times book)
Now there are so many cheap stocks in the market - e.g:, MO which has returned 23.7% for the last twenty years!
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So whenever the evidence turns against your popularly held belief, you ignore it? I am seeing quite a few posts in this board and in quora as well that says Canada is a much better version of the U.S. However, when one checks the data - it is not the case. I am double checking the assumptions in this board which has a lot of Canadians.
Is this a new episode of the weekly "I have a tickle about Canada and I want to scratch it!" series for threads by Shalab?
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According to this article, it is if you are a non-european immigrant:
Thousands of Pakistani trained engineers, doctors, and PhDs are driving taxis or are working as security guards in large cities.
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Outstanding!
The quarter in done
BRK is extremly cheap, just trading at 1,28 x BV
BRK.B price $186.65 -6.4% since end Q1
BV per B app $145.20 1.29 app 3 % up since end Q1
KHC adj BVPS app $146.10 1.28 app 3 % up since end Q1
BRK a big big buy !
Hi John, my figures are not cursory. They are deeply calculated. I am just to laszy to publish the details. Soon we will see, how precise these figures were. Even today we are trading just app 1.28 x BV
FIGURES ARE OUT : 145.118 $ per B (217.755 A)
The calculated BV figures - published from me here in the forum at end of Q1, see above - were extremly precise. Just 0.05 % difference. Thats nearly nothing.
BRK is now ( today) extremly cheap. We are just trading at 1.32 BV. The BV today is app 150.40 $ per B. So extremly up since end of 2Q driven by AAPL BAC KHC etc
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Surprised no one posted anything
TORONTO, Aug. 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announces net earnings of $63.1 million ($1.82 net earnings per diluted share after payment of preferred share dividends) in the second quarter of 2018 compared to net earnings of $311.6 million ($12.67 net earnings per diluted share after payment of preferred share dividends) in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting net losses rather than net gains on investments. Book value per basic share at June 30, 2018 was $453.99 compared to $449.55 at December 31, 2017 (an increase of 3.3% adjusted for the $10 per common share dividend paid in the first quarter of 2018).
Looks like they are shorting some stocks again - not clear if the hedges are back
First six months of 2018
($ millions)
Realized
gains
(losses) Unrealized
gains
(losses) Net gains
(losses)
Net gains (losses) on:
Long equity exposures 1,083.2 26.1 1,109.3
Short equity exposures (198.8 ) 151.3 (47.5 )
Net equity exposures 884.4 177.4 1,061.8
Bonds 61.1 (210.7 ) (149.6 )
CPI-linked derivatives — (19.2 ) (19.2 )
Other (17.4 ) 0.4 (17.0 )
928.1 (52.1 ) 876.0
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This should help our perennially undervalued favorite. Or atleast hope so!
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Very useful table - can you please share the original spreadsheet? Also - would like to see the returns with Vanguard or Schwab SP500 funds.
So, FWIW some time back I had done a spreadsheet for net returns to investor with SP500 historical returns under different fee scenarios.
It is attached below. Maybe some will find it useful. The big takeway is that the Buffett model only pays for the manager when you are generating serious alpha.
Of course, the traditional hedge fund structure is egregiously expensive for the investor.
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Median wealth is the right indicator - how is the person in the 50th percentile doing. Aggregate wealth is misleading as the USA will still come out ahead at 1/5th the median Canadian income and wealth.
Regarding Canada doing its "fair share", I don't think it is for illegals. I think it is cruel for a government to deport people who lost toes to frost bite to get into your country. Why In the USA, the estimate is that there are ~10 million people that are illegal. Canada's share of this would be about a million.
Looking at this graph of where people to Canada are coming from, it under represents people from South America and Africa, especially Mexico. Why is that?
https://capitalnews.ca/coming-to-canada/project/coming-going/
My points are:
Canada is wealthier than the US - on median income and median wealth.
- the usa government (and companies) are full of hubris, Canada is in a position to provide "aid" to usa
Canada doesn't welcome illegal migrants.
Given its wealth, Canada and its citizens can do more for illegal migrants.
Ok, well I don't see what Microsoft's recruiting practices have to do with any of that. But let's put that aside for now.
Firstly, your use of statistics is wrong. Canada is not a wealthier country than the US. The US is in aggregate wealthier than Canada. Median wealth and income are merely just one measure of the distribution of that wealth and income. What you're effectively saying is we have more money that you guys, but because you guys have less income inequality you should contribute more because we don't wanna bother our rich folks. In addition as others have pointed here wealth statistics are distorted by a bunch of things and should not be taken at face value.
Secondly, Canada doing something for illegal immigrants is an oxymoron. A government exists for the purpose of the enforcement of laws. No legitimate government will stand for or encourage the violation of its laws. So Canada cannot actually encourage illegal migration.
Thirdly, migrations do actually happen for reasons outside of a country's control. This is why we have asylum and refugee programs. In those areas Canada punches above its weight and above the US. This is despite the Unites States' larger income and wealth. If the US was to proportionally take in as many refugees and asylum seekers as Canada, the US should take in 300,000-450,000 per year. That number is greater than the US's refugee quota plus the illegal immigration into the US. So I'd say that Canada does enough.
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What is the impact to FRFHF?
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My points are:
Canada is wealthier than the US - on median income and median wealth.
- the usa government (and companies) are full of hubris, Canada is in a position to provide "aid" to usa
Canada doesn't welcome illegal migrants.
Given its wealth, Canada and its citizens can do more for illegal migrants.
Here is some more data,
usaid - the government agency that distributes aid, hires in Canada. A poorer country by average income and average net worth providing "aid" to a richer country. One of the goals of this agency is to expand "American values"
https://www.linkedin.com/company/usaid-canada
To make things more interesting, usaid was also distributing aid in Canada. In 2017, it gave 28 million dollars in "aid" to Canada.
https://explorer.usaid.gov/aid-dashboard.html#2017
Companies like MSFT hire from Canada as they would in the US.
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/cdndevs/2015/09/22/student-jobs-at-microsoft-faq/
And then there is the quora post:
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Canadians-leave-Canada-and-move-to-the-US
You are right that it is easier to immigrate from Canada to USA than the other way round. (for both legal and illegal). Canada has laxer rules for legal immigration from some countries. For illegal immigrants, it seems really hard to get in.
I also looked at the option of getting Canadian Greencard but it wasn't straight forward. I could go as a skilled person or an investor. In addition, one doesn't get social security automatically.
Why Canada is richer than US? I think there are several reasons:
- real estate is more expensive, even in small towns, I found real estate more expensive than the US.
e.g:, this city near Banff national park, https://www.royallepage.ca/en/bc/golden/properties/
nova scotia - https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Real-Estate-Listings/NS.html
- very little spending on military
- cheap education
- almost treated like citizens in USA with similar benefits
- special nafta visa for employment in USA that is very easy to get
- many(most?) college grads end up in the USA for work
From what you write it seems like you have no idea what you're talking about.
Is there point you're trying to arrive at?
Did Parsad throw in the towel?
in General Discussion
Posted
+1 for Sanjeev's integrity.
I was expecting the fund to get hit because of investment(s) into PDH. PDH turned out to be a venture fund investing in Canadian start-ups.
If the fund and PDH got shuttered, it turns out to be an affirmation for "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."