shalab
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Posts posted by shalab
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An update here:
http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/warren-buffett-foreign-trade/
I used to have a lot of respect for Buffett. A lot.
I was admiring him when he talked about the low returns in the years ahead (1999), underfunded pension plans and the need to expense stock options.
He also wrote a great piece when he talked against U.S. trade deficit (2004?).
All of this was happening under Democrat and Republican administrations. His logic was top notch.
Then a lot changed with the 2008 election and after. As an example, why is he not criticizing the U.S. trade deficit as he used to?
Cardboard
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cardboard - hats off to you - I also admire Romney more now than I did four years back.
Some of the past comments about Rosy or that Ms. Venezuela did not bother me much, but now this level of arrogance and lack of respect is too much.
He needs to resign. There is no way that he can win the election going forward.
Cardboard
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This topic is not worth as much time as it is given - there are more serious topics where one can add value in a better way:
- buy a tesla and help an american company
- you are acting like a venture capitalist
- support a local small business by spending a few dollars on it
- help another person whichever way we can
At the end of the day, you will feel a lot better than this discussion.
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Has anyone tried this and have any feedback? Allows for zero cost stock trading...
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Bezos has been brilliant with his business model - e-shopping would have happened with/without him.
Trump's achievement is not a small one - not very many people qualify to run to be the president of the USA from a major party. In addition, he is a well known businessman and male socialite.
Watsa is an iconic figure of Canada and he supports the University of Waterloo as Chancellor.
Musk's achievements are ground breaking - he deserves credit for making electric cars main stream, SpaceX and of course hyperloop. He also did paypal.
Biglari is the new comer - relatively young compared to Watsa and Trump. He may have a huge impact in due course.
Surprised Bezos polled as highly as he did and Watsa/Trump as lowly as they did. Looks to me that there is a recency bias as Amazon is crossing 400B in market cap.
Bezos created something that affects virtually every person in the U.S. in a positive way. No one else on the list has really done anything on that level. E.g., I respect Watsa, but he's just doing his investment thing, and that mostly only impacts shareholders. I would also have put Gates ahead of Bezos if I had the choice, echoing some others.
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Surprised Bezos polled as highly as he did and Watsa/Trump as lowly as they did. Looks to me that there is a recency bias as Amazon is crossing 400B in market cap.
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Another vote to select the most successful person among other favorites of this board
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I guess here is the proof:
Also - here is the median wealth by country. The median Canadian is far wealthier than the median American with better education facilities, better job opportunities and better benefits. Heck, even Greece's median wealth (which is highlighted as the basket case in US) is higher than that of US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult
Not really at least not publicly - e.g:, how much criticism of Watsa you see on this board vs criticism of Buffett?
Regarding giving to charity, agree, providing capital to SpaceX and Tesla is likely to better mankind, good idea to follow...
FWIW - I think Elon Musk is a national hero - he would be deified if he was a citizen of any other country (Russia, China, Israel, India etc.) as 'God' but he gets criticized here - only in America!
People are much the same the world over. He would receive a lot of praise and elevation alongside some criticism in most countries too.
I'm not sure that example even holds e.g. there has been a lot of criticism of the deflation bets and the hedges. However, one example does prove or disprove a generalization.
Musk is Canadian and South African too. Do you think he receives no criticism there?
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Not really at least not publicly - e.g:, how much criticism of Watsa you see on this board vs criticism of Buffett?
Regarding giving to charity, agree, providing capital to SpaceX and Tesla is likely to better mankind, good idea to follow...
FWIW - I think Elon Musk is a national hero - he would be deified if he was a citizen of any other country (Russia, China, Israel, India etc.) as 'God' but he gets criticized here - only in America!
People are much the same the world over. He would receive a lot of praise and elevation alongside some criticism in most countries too.
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FWIW - I think Elon Musk is a national hero - he would be deified if he was a citizen of any other country (Russia, China, Israel, India etc.) as 'God' but he gets criticized here - only in America!
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There is a huge difference in trying somethings ethically/honestly vs. doing outright fraud. There is no doubt that owning a successful business generates more wealth/helps society than working for someone else.
Madoff was deeply unethical/fraudulent. However he had a viable business before he went off to the deep end.
Armstrong was the one who got caught - there were others in the field doing the same, some got away much more lightly than him. There are states that sponsor doping and most get away without getting caught.
Theranos still seems to be in business and may still produce something useful.
A lot of this could easily apply to Madoff, Armstrong and Liz Holmes as an example, before the relentless critics proved the opposite. Jury is out on this one as to what it turns to and becomes in the end. Don't underestimate the critics. They add a lot of value. If one cannot deal with a critic, stay away from the arena!
It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat. - Teddy Roosevelt
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He is probably right that he didn't need any prep for some of the tests as he would have memorized most of the dictionary for spelling bee.
However - to succeed as an investor, one needs many other qualities. WEB is a master in spotting mis-priced securities or businesses in many different situations - bonds, stocks (small cap or large cap) etc. In addition, one needs mental equilibrium to stay the course when people say random things - not an easy thing to do. WEB's mental equilibrium (not to speak of the agility) is remarkable...
However, creating and running a business is a good thing - especially at a young age. He has had a good start and he will beat the indices for a while if he sells everything and puts everything into cash.
I wish the kid all the best!
In any case - I don't want to take away too much from this young mind. Running his own LLC is an achievement that is multiples of what I had achieved at age 22.
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seeking alpha valuation:
Nevertheless, using that as a proxy would mean that Berkshire Hathaway's fair value per A share is $247,000 and per B share is $165. My preferred method of calculating Berkshire's intrinsic value is not as aggressive as the $292,000 from the "two-column" approach, but does suggest that the market is discounting the shares, currently by about 12%. If you prefer to use the market multiple of current year earnings of 19, then each A share would be worth $278,000. That is much closer to the estimate obtained from the "two-column" approach to valuing the company and means the current price is a discount of 22% to intrinsic value.
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Don't forget that KHC is carried at below book - almost $13 B lower than today's market value. In addition, IBM, BAC etc. have recovered. It is still very cheap...
2016 Q2 is higher than 2015 Q2 because there are several large permanent sources of income added to the stable that were not there in 2015. PCP, Duracell, Phillips etc. These are not going away, so a new base of earnings has formed so it is non random. I used "run rate" with this in mind.
Actually pre-tax operating earnings from non-insurance were flat YoY. Manufacturing increased nicely but this was offset by the declines at BNSF. The YoY growth was from insurance underwriting (investment income decreased), MTM on derivatives, and Kraft. See p. 24/25 of today's Q.
Don't mean to nitpick, and I own the stock too, but to say earnings are higher because of PCP, Duracell, and phillips is not factually correct.
Fair enough, agreed. MSR is only 200M of the 1B. Big delta is in Insurance and "other".
I think waiting for the dust to settle, meaning a couple more years would be prudent.That said, Duracell, PCP, Phillips do increase annual earnings base by a B.
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Well said...
Trump has raised some good points and has upended the traditional "pubs" and "dems". Apparently most of the stuff in "Art of the deal" is fiction according to this. The author claims he should be president if a person wants the guy who wrote that book to be president.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all
Also Michael Bloomberg has a different take than Icahn/Ross on this matter. Ross raises some good points but it was the "conventional wisdom" at the time and promoted by both the "pubs" and "dems".
I have a contrarian streak so I try perform second level thinking in my decision making and look for third-party evidence versus what I am spoon fed by each of the campaigns.
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I think there is logic to both sides of the support for Trump so each person has to examine the independent data and make their decision as we do for each of the stocks we own.
Packer
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By shareholder equity in Q1:
BRK - 258.6 B
FANG:
AMZN - 14.75 B
GOOG - 120.33 B
FB - 47.5 B
NFLX - 2.3 B
Total: 184.88 B
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Great going for AMZN and AMZN share holders...
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I liked Kasich - thought he was the most balanced in the GOP field. Overall, some of the issues raised by Trump (and to a certain extent Bernie) resonate with a large base as successive governments for generations have focused more on being a "super power" (and all the baggage that comes with it ) than the well being of the ordinary citizens.
As to suits many can sue but it sounds like only one of the three suits resulted in a fine. Also cherry picking advisors and going after there weaknesses is pretty weak also. I have no doubt Hillary has advisors who similarly dubious backgrounds. She herself, not one of her advisors, is being investigated over the classified e-mails. One real test is who has created more jobs & wealth. Trump has done this in spades. If it was up to me I would not have chosen Trump I voted for Kasich but given the choice between Clinton & Trump, I would take Trump hands down. The more fear mongering the Dems the more desperate they appear.
The other question you need to ask yourself do you want the status quo or do you want the government to provide a service and get something done. Who do you think would get the most deals done, the guy who does it for a living or the gal whose worked in the government and uses identity politics to get elected? We have tried the later and the only time he could get things done was when his party controlled Congress. As to trusting what Trump vs. what Clinton says I think you can trust neither. So, in my mind it is not a absolute standard that I measure Trump against (he would be very lacking & I chose Kasich over him in that contest) but a relative one against Clinton.
Packer
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Hi cardboard and packer - one thing about Trump I find interesting is that he doesn't really seem to have a position on anything - everything is up for negotiation or change so long as it benefits Trump. Given this, I am interested in your view on these stories and also how can anyone trust anything Trump says?
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/trump-university-students-school-scam-article-1.2350129
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I am neither a 'pub' nor a 'dem' (both the parties have their share of idiots) but Nixon is not much of a model for anything -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Bangladesh_genocide
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Nixon and China tried to suppress reports of genocide from East Pakistan.
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In his book The Trial of Henry Kissinger, Christopher Hitchens elaborates on what he saw as the efforts of Kissinger to subvert the aspirations of independence on the part of the Bengalis.[154] Hitchens not only claims that the term genocide is appropriate to describe the results of the struggle, but also points to the efforts of Henry Kissinger in undermining others who condemned the then ongoing atrocities as being a genocide. He also wrote “Kissinger was responsible for the killing of thousands of people, including Sheik Mujibur Rahman”.[155]
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/16/putin-ally-backs-donald-trump-for-president.html
"It was always Republicans when, in the old days, some of kind of bridges were constructed,"
Very intriguing and interesting statement: the Bush's, Reagan, Nixon.
Cardboard
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yop
are you guys missing the "just one time" dividend question?
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Calling the partnership "profitable" is a huge understatement. As is the understatement in the AR. The AR noted below
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Our Heinz partnership with Jorge Paulo Lemann, Alex Behring and Bernardo Hees more than doubled its size last year by merging with Kraft. Before this transaction, we owned about 53% of Heinz at a cost of $4.25 billion. Now we own 325.4 million shares of Kraft Heinz (about 27%) that cost us $9.8 billion.
The new company has annual sales of $27 billion and can supply you Heinz ketchup or mustard to go with your Oscar Mayer hot dogs that come from the Kraft side. Add a Coke, and you will be enjoying my favorite meal. (We will have the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile at the annual meeting – bring your kids.) Though we sold no Kraft Heinz shares, “GAAP” (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) required us to record a $6.8 billion write-up of our investment upon completion of the merger. That leaves us with our Kraft Heinz holding carried on our balance sheet at a value many billions above our cost and many billions below its market value, an outcome only an accountant could love.
Berkshire also owns Kraft Heinz preferred shares that pay us $720 million annually and are carried at $7.7 billion on our balance sheet. That holding will almost certainly be redeemed for $8.32 billion in June (the earliest date allowed under the preferred’s terms). That will be good news for Kraft Heinz and bad news for Berkshire.
globalfinancepartners said:
It's been a profitable association for sure.
This one is a home run, it is amazing just how much this is paying back in dividends already. It is more likely than not that the entire original investment (9.8 billion) will be paid back in dividends in less than 10 years.
Total shares owned:
325,634,818
Dividend per year:
749 million
Market value:
27.4 billion
What's Berkshire's cost? Also, do you have the figures for QSR, also a major Berkshire investment, right? :)
If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for? (Oct. Edition)
in General Discussion
Posted
Current odds of control of whitehouse and senate:
538 blog:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
Princeton Election Consortium:
http://election.princeton.edu/