shalab

If you look at these numbers, it is pretty obvious that internet explorer has been losing market share for a while. Also, it is obvious that windows market share is also declining. http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

Just running a poll to see what the board's opinion is on MSFT. I have some MSFT acquired in the 23s and am wondering if I should keep them around or not.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2015465692_microsoftballmer30.html

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904901504576413693594956296.html

Slightly dated but good video. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/69247004/

Wesco is expected to be delisted before market open on June 27. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/105729/000119312511173360/d8k.htm

Here is a poll on what the group think is.

In today's WSJ, there was a quote from one mpauls - is it the same one that posts here?

Here is a question for DELL fans, Dell has gone away from its build to order model to the traditional model of build and then sell in emerging markets. If you look at the payables in DELL balance sheet, you will see it declining every year.

There are no small companies with a durable competitive advantage or wide moat. This statement is plain wrong. Check out WD40 for instance - has a market cap of 600M.

Anyone buying these at these levels?

http://www.geekwire.com/2011/idc-cuts-2011-pc-forecast-ipad-kindle-friends-toll

As groupon gets ready for the IPO, it is interesting to see how much wealth is created and destroyed by tech companies. Here is a break down of companies by market value MSFT 200 billion IBM 200 billion ORCL 165 billion GOOG 170 billion AAPL 320 billion FCBK 80 billion AMZN 85 billion CSCO 80 billion NFLX, groupon, zillows, expedia, lnkd, jnpr etc. 100 billion Total: 1.4 trillion dollars total:

Sanjeev, your point is very well made and very valid

MSFT has two choices - go into runoff or continue to invest in online services so it can monetize further based on the operating system sales. The managements choice is clear - to invest in the ad platform. A viable ad system will help Microsoft monetize from online services. This is also the rationale for buying Skype. How the investment in online services pans out is anyone guess. Primarily it is a bet on ad platform that can serve up relevant ads. It could make Microsoft a value trap as the PC mix shifts increasingly to tablets and devices. Other thoughts on this welcome.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/microsoftpri0/2015164168_report_microsoft_board_supports_ballmer.html

A studied board member made a comment sometime back that if one bought brk, frfhf or luk when they were underpriced in the last decade, that is all it took to do well. Lowest risk with extremely able capital allocators at the helm. I think the time is right to do the analysis now to see which is better now from a price stand point. brk-b continues to do well as the economy is coming out of recession and is well placed with a huge war chest of cash in case the double dip happens. Already people are calling BNI buy as a steal as several other companies achieved the stock price without the buyout premium. It is the greatest compounding machine humanity has ever seen and continues to do well although not at the same rate as before. It is the cheapest of the lot as book value is expected to hit $75 in two years. frfhf not cheap but not expensive either. Expect the insurance sector to do better after a harder market. From last decades growth, it seems brk-b is a better bet than msft at the moment. However, msft does have a payout in dividends which should interest some people. luk is the most expensive of the lot at the moment and is also tied to commodities to a certain degree. msft cheap with growing earnings and monopoly businesses. catalyst is needed to move the price up.

When you said "Charlie" - I thought Charlie Munger - apparently it is some one else.

Ask for your money back Probably I should ;D. Again, using valueline MSFT data, adding in dividends, the book value would have been 11.11$/share. It is better than what looks like on the surface but still trails BRK from 2001-2010 period.

Another interesting comparison is MSFT vs Berkshire Berkshire had an equity of 58 billion in 2001 and now it has 163 billion. EPS went from 1.86/share to 5.2/share from 2002-2010 MSFT on the other hand went from a book value of 4.48 to 5.53 in the same period. EPS went up from 94 cents to $2.10 cents in the same period. Which is a better business and which has compounded better?

Media is always looking for good stories - in the Einhorn case; Greenlight, a New York-based hedge fund, added 1.39 million Microsoft shares last quarter, for a total of 9.07 million, according to a filing. The stake is worth $230.2 million. Microsoft’s shares have underperformed the S&P 500 in four of the past five quarters. Now Ballmer alone owns 4% of Microsoft. BillG owns about 6.4% - together they make up ~10%. About 40% of the Microsoft shares were held in the seattle area, even with it going down - it is pretty much impossible to dislodge him for Einhorn.

Any more info on this book - where can it be bought or found? I read "there is always something to do" - it is a good book. Surprising that Cundill passed away in his seventies given that he was a fitness fanatic.

Looks like Byron had a fair degree of success with > 2B in AUM http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/05/17/byron-trott-the-midwest-medicis-favorite-financier/

Although 25% of Microsoft sales come windows/windows live, it makes up 50% of operating earnings. Thus a small decline in windows/windows live profitability will hit the bottom line hard. In the three months ended on March 31st, the windows/windows live revenues declined by 4% while operating earnings declined by 10%. This means increasing cost pressures while market share is declining. This is even before the new pay hike goes into effect. So look for some of the same trends to continue.

Under what circumstances is Dell a better long-term buy than MSFT? Dell is cheap from a cash flow standpoint. I also like it more than MSFT but dont own either DELL or MSFT. MSFT would be great if it is in run-off but it is not. The bleeding investments in search, skype and other areas are done to protect the windows franchise. If you think of Microsoft as primarily the "windows" business, Dell is key for this business. You can't be long on MSFT by being short on Dell. It is growing quite nicely in emerging markets but it doesnt have the "build to order" thing going on for it like it had in the U.S.