shalab

I am seeing the same trend in my locality - it will soon get better to buy than rent at these prices. Expect housing to get better in a couple of years in the worst case. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/realestate/rents-in-manhattan-rebound-to-record-highs.html?_r=1&hp

Seems like US businesses are increasing capital spending. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/28/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE78C33C20110928

Looks like Icahn has set his eyes on it.

There were quite a few on this board that were short NFLX - how are they doing now?

Hoe many here refinanced? I did this week as the 10 year bonds nose dived, I was already on a low rate but that low rate got lower. I expect the banks to get tail wind from refinancing this quarter and next...

About time....

Let us do this poll to get a temperature of the board.

In 2008, the drop in rail car loadings was immediate and dramatic. We aren't seeing anything of the sort now. The EU needs to cut the interest rates and China/India will need to stop the interest rate hikes - the interest rate hike has caused the current slow down.

Trucking volumes are also up in the U.S with demand for truck drivers also being up. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-25/driver-shortage-shows-gain-in-u-s-truck-cargo-freight-markets.html

Here is the railroad traffic - it is down slightly compared to last year but the drop is bigger in canada but it is up in mexico. http://www.aar.org/AAR/NewsAndEvents/Freight-Rail-Traffic/2011/09/01-railtraffic.aspx

Resurrecting the old thread on this topic - what are the results for various board members? I lost 10 lbs so far and am hoping to shed another 2-3 pounds by end of the year. Had my blood/urine test done along with kidney and liver function - everything is in good shape. Blood pressure and heart beat rate is also in great shape. cheers!

This was how JPM took over Wamu - it was a very profitable take over of a solvent entity with FDIC assist. Eventhough WFC was interested, the bid was rigged in favor of JPM. JPM had offered $8/share earlier which Wamu rejected. But JPM ended up getting the entity for free! The case is still winding through the court system - it is fascinating how the system is rigged in favor of big players. There aren't many ethical people when money is involved. I wont be surprised if JPM started this rumor...

My take: The way to value BH is by taking into account three components. 1. Operating cash generation from restaurant business 2. Investments 3. Subtract the incentive compensation part paid to the Chairman Let us value BH based on these three components: Cash generation by SnS and West: The SnS brand sales growth is leveling off and Western Sizzling is going down. The top line growth went up by 3.5% and operating earnings by 10%; for the quarter both SNS amd Western Sizzling had less operating profit. Earning before income tax was 29 million for the first forty weeks. Normalizing to 52 weeks gives a value of 37.7 million. Investments Investments totaled 117 million at the end of Q2. Most likely the investments have dropped since Q2 after the market adjusted. The BH group made money with FMMH.PK but the market value of CBRL has dropped since then. Anyway, we will leave it as is for the sake of this analysis. Adjustment for chairman's compensation Shareholders equity went up by 10% from Sept of last year, we can assume it will be up by 12% for the year. The chairman will take 1.5% of the addition in book value over 5%. This brings chairmans compensation to ~4 million. Valuation At the low end, we will pay 6 multiple for the earnings before income tax as the earnings are flat or declining for the restaurant business. This in addition to the investments and subtracting chairman's compensation gives us a valuation of ~340 million. At the high end, we will pay 8 multiple for the earnings before income tax. This in addition to the investments and subtracting the chairman's compensation gives us a valuation of ~420 million. Current Price Using the treasury stock, we get a valuation of 580 million. Treasury stock is stock held by the various partnerships that Biglari runs under the BH umbrella. The treasury stock is used when voting for the chairman's causes but not used in calculating the EPS figure. Since the treasury shares are held in a partnership account, redeeming the partnership can cause the shares to be sold. Also, these stocks can't be considered as retired - so a prudent investor should take into consideration the treasury stocks when valuing BH. Without the treasury stock, we get a valuation of 450 million with a share price of $340/share. We believe that BH is currently overvalued. Even adding back 40 million in retained earning for SnS/West and investment gains of 24 million for the next year without including chairman's compensation, we don't find BH to be a bargain even with a high multiple for earnings.

Can't agree more with him - a nice article. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Disaster-Movie-Gets-a-Sequel-nytimes-2939191772.html?x=0%20%20%20&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Since S&P downgraded a few insurance plays today to the US treasury level - would that mean automatic downgrade to everyone in the chain? e.g: BRK got downgraded to AA+ with negative outlook. Would FRFHF be downgraded to BBB- from A- as every one shifts down a level?

Got the order filled ;D. With book at $66 and expected to hit $69 by 12/31 without big catastrophes, this is a bargain.

The strike price is $34 and Wells is arguably the best big bank in the U.S along with USB. The warrant is going for 8.50 as of Friday. With earnings of about $4/share in 2013 looks like the warrant can hit break-even by then. At $51, one will have a double in the stock as well as the warrant. However, the stock will pay dividends and the warrant won't. If one assumes $4 as the normalized earning power for WFC, over the next seven years, we will have 28 + 15 dollars in tangible book. Part of the earnings will be paid out as dividend - so commons are more attractive than the warrant in this case?

In particular, immigrants of the business-class type visas that would invest capital and start small businesses. They would need homes, automobiles, food, clothing, education, etc, and increase tax revenues. Maybe even open up such visas to regions that have greatly suffered economic hardships such as Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Southern California, Michigan, etc. Food for thought. If the U.S lets the willing students stay back after their study, it will suffice.

ok - it makes sense now. If the common stock is going to hit $24, it will be growing at 14.4% a year for the next 8 years.

Very solid in all fronts. The BNSF acquisition is looking good with every passing quarter - 17% increase in revenue and profits. In another five years, this would be looked at as the genius move for BRK shareholders. At June 30, 2011, our book value had increased by 3.4% to $98,716 per Class A equivalent share. Insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) at June 30, 2011 was $71 billion, an increase of $5 billion since the end of 2010

It can help increase book value faster.

MSFT is down because of windows. Windows is the engine for microsoft - slow down in windows is the harbinger of slower growth elsewhere in due course.

Found this interesting. It is also amazing the lengths people will go. http://9to5mac.com/2011/07/19/chinas-fake-apple-store/

An objective analysis? http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/itslideshow/9211792.cms

First half doesnt mean squat - even the football game has two halves. Investing is a longer term event. There are plenty of articles saying Buffett has lost it, Munger is insane etc.